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US Coffee C (KCZ6)

Real-time derived
Symbol
Exchange
Currency
KC·Derived·USD
KC!·ICE·USD
KCc1·ICE·USD
KCc2·ICE·USD
KCc3·ICE·USD
KCc4·ICE·USD
KCc5·ICE·USD
KCc6·ICE·USD
KCc7·ICE·USD
Currency in USD
287.85
-4.85(-1.66%)
Closed·

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

Reports indicate Olam and Louis Dreyfus are each preparing roughly 150–200K bags for ICE certification.
It is great, will be enough for half day consumption
If they will deliver in a first place :)...
Brazil, the world second largest coffee consumer, rose 2.3% from January to August compared to the same period last year, Brazilian coffee industry association Abic reported on Tuesday, amid lower prices. Brazil retail coffee sales reached the equivalent of 13.69 million 60-kg bags in the period, Abic said. The increase comes after a 5.4% decline in the same period of 2025 amid higher coffee prices at the time. Could this be slightly positive ? Some of the extra production is being consumed domestically.
Small green this morning, but could be misleading early morning green like other days
Hopeless, every slight rise is smacked down. Robusta even more hopeless l, with bigger daily falls. Market focused on record Brazil harvest and El Niño was a red herring as positive for Brazil
I said when I started shorting that this will drop to 250 and fluctuate 250-275 for a kong time . Still same opinion.
Maybe fluctuatw 200-230 after 300k hit ICE
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Days are closer than weeks when a few hundred thousand bags will hit ICE stocks.
Viriato, I think the bigger “Godzilla” may actually be the changes that have taken place in Brazilian coffee production over the last five years, not the El Niño currently carrying that label. New varieties, better agronomy, pruning, irrigation and heavier investment are increasingly smoothing production from year to year. The biological ON/OFF effect still exists, but its amplitude appears to be getting reduced. Sucden has specifically warned that the traditional biennial cycle is no longer a reliable forecasting tool. So taking 47.5M for 2026 and mechanically assuming 44M for an “OFF” 2027 and 50M+ for an “ON” 2028 looks too simplistic. The more relevant question is how much these structural changes are balancing production year over year, and then what weather actually does to that underlying potential. El Niño may become very important, but I would not build 2027 and 2028 expectations around the old ON/OFF model alone.
In fact, the “Safra Zero” example you give helps make the point. Producers are actively managing when different areas produce through pruning, while newer varieties, irrigation and improved agronomy are also changing productivity and recovery. Across thousands of farms and blocks managed differently, these changes can reduce the amplitude of the traditional ON/OFF cycle even though bienniality still exists at the individual tree level.
That is exactly how I read Sucden. They still call 2027/28 a “likely off-cycle,” but specifically say that the traditional biennial pattern is no longer a reliable guide and that higher-yield varieties and better agronomic practices have “muted pure cyclicality.” So I am not arguing that 2027 cannot be lower than 2026. I am questioning the assumption that because 2027 is an OFF year it should automatically be around 44M, followed by a 50M+ ON crop in 2028.
The physiology remains. What may have changed considerably is how strongly that physiology shows up in Brazil’s total year-to-year production. Weather may now determine the size of that difference much more than the old ON/OFF label.
Godzilla has officially arrived. Now the question is about the consequences and the time frame. The one just needs to sit, watch and enjoy the popcorn. :) It is good to remember that as the transferring of the ocean heat to the atmosphere not happens all at once, the potential impacts may be seen way into 2027 and beyond... No idea :) at the moment if and when and to what degree it will affect Brazilian coffee production but it is good to remember that: 1) 2027 is OFF crop and after 47.5mb projection for 2026 a normal 2027 would be no less than 44mb; 2) depending on the events, the impacts in 2027 (if any) may affect 2028 ON production, which in normal circumstances should be about 50mb or more - this is what market would expect if 2026 figures will stay the same.
Better tell me about producers that must store the bags under their the beds as this is their only option :).
Ask StoneX abt it
Or ask you twin black crow Bruno :))))) and his big bag story
good night
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good evening
Good morning
good morning
Issuance this month shall be around 5 million bags from Brazil.
until couple years ago we use 60 kgs bags, now the warehouses uses big bags which needs around 30% more space than the jute bags
in Campos Altos, Cerrado region we have a former IBC warehouse that could hold 300.000 jute bags with 60 kgs. Campos Altos produces in average 300.000 bags, the OBC has around 50.000 bags in stock and Campos Altos has another 8 warehouses, they are not receiving more coffee because of the extra space the big bags requires
I heard Stone X stopped being optimistic about Vietnam 26/27 production :):):) Helmut, what your deeply rooted sources are saying ??? :) For today, optimism left kinda Vietnam, Indonesia, India, Uganda, CAM, Columbia, Mexico, etc... :):):)
Technical - no worries. Just need a confirmation. https://invst.ly/1k4ylc
no worries about what?
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The issue isn't whether El Niño is real. It's whether El Niño can become sufficiently worse than current expectations to justify additional weather premium. If increasingly dramatic weather headlines stop producing higher prices, that would tell us the market has largely priced the story. At that point, absent evidence of actual crop damage, the large underlying supply becomes increasingly difficult for the market to ignore.
Brazilian supply is hitting the international market aggressively. Brazil's green-coffee export pace in the first half of September was approximately 13,500 MT/day, +51.5% YoY. Brazilian August exports were also exceptionally strong.
Very predictable, very slight rise in the early morning London open and then 2% down in NY session, rinse and repeat
Exactly 20% from recent top to LOD. Its good enough for me to buy - combined with the trend line ( day / week )
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We are very close to my buy the bottom target ( 273 ). Maybe even here at 277 is a good buy !?
267 or 268 may be a better buy in point.
It bounced from this level to 320 in Feb. If it breaks 276 more downside
Exchange arabica stocks increased to 233,479 bags on Wednesday up from a 27-year low of 217,646 bags. ICE said 16,210 bags passed quality checks to enter the certified stocks, while 2,960 failed. Gap up or already priced in ?
At 268 I will buy
Which bounce ? Why ?
168 is a bit low don’t you think:-?
Only 80 cents away
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280 showing vulnerability, break or bounce ?
Break it is then !
By SH: No two Super El Ninos are exactly the same in how it reacts with certain regions of the world. The are commonalities but also distinct differences. Take the region central/north Brazil, a prolific area for corn, soybeans, coffee, sugar and cotton production etc. There are times a severe drought can take hold and at other times the drought impacts of a Super El Nino are more muted. Variables such as the Antarctic oscillation, the multi-variate ENSO, the Indian ocean dipole, the El Nino Modoki index, the Tropical North Atlantic and the deforestation trends of the Amazon are all key variables that can either enhance or deflate natural Super El Nino drought teleconnections for this key region of Brazil. As an example, the Tropical North Atlantic Index which measures the SST anomalies of this region of ocean... when they are warmer (meaning positive readings) than normal can help restrict the southward migration of the Intertropical convergence zone during the core rainy season from November-February and cause a less active convective interaction with the Amazon monsoon enhancing Super El Nino drought risks.
Thank you AA !!! He would not trust me anyway :):):)...
We entered the cluster of multiple supports. My feeling (very personal !) that some low will be fixed around end of September. Helmut, here is the news that you will like: FAEMG/SENAR evaluation of A 2026. Here it is: A survey polled more than 5,000 producers and industry professionals across 269 municipalities in Minas Gerais and presents an estimate higher than the projections from Conab and the IBGE === 33.4mb A 2026 :):):).
Conab total 2026 A in May was roughly 46mb. Very very close to USDA...
free coffee for everyone!!!
Long way to get free....45 usc in 2002 would be nice again
Anybody going to the SCTA at the end of the month?
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Viriato, sorry for the delayed response. I was stuck dealing with legal stuff today and away from the trading platform. Nevertheless, I actually like how today’s candle developed. It was a strong rejection of 282 and closed near the highs, so I think another attempt higher is more likely first. If 293 breaks, I’d look toward 296–300, but that’s also where I’d expect sellers to test the rally. If we push into that area and fail, especially with increasing volume, I’d see today’s move as the market simply needing higher prices to attract more selling before continuing lower. If we break and hold above 300 on strong volume, then I’d have to reconsider. For now, I see it as a bullish candle within a still-bearish trend—higher first perhaps, but not necessarily higher overall. Today’s OI should tell us a lot.
But don't you think that at the time of record production everywhere :) and warehouses, not accepting coffee :), amazing flowering, etc it should be no need to attract sellers ? But to see couple of weeks of liquidation instead ? :) In the mid of September ... Does it feel not right a bit ? :)
Viriato, after today I think your question becomes even more interesting. Yesterday’s rejection of 282 looked impressive, but today the market couldn’t follow through, failed below yesterday’s high and came straight back toward 282. Volume increased only modestly, so we still aren’t seeing the aggressive liquidation that, as you say, we probably should be seeing with all these bearish fundamentals. To me, 282 is now the key. If it finally breaks with expanding volume, perhaps that liquidation begins. But if 282 continues to hold despite record production, good flowering and all the other bearish factors, then I agree that something doesn’t quite add up. Today considerably weakened yesterday’s bullish candle, but 282 still needs to break.
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