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US Coffee C (KCZ6)

Real-time derived
Symbol
Exchange
Currency
KC·Derived·USD
KCc1·ICE·USD
KCc2·ICE·USD
KCc3·ICE·USD
KCc4·ICE·USD
KCc5·ICE·USD
KCc6·ICE·USD
KCc7·ICE·USD
Currency in USD
313.65
+7.55(+2.47%)
Closed·

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

Being honest now, I have missed the train, too stubborn for my entry targets, lesson learned, roll over coming, happy that is again + for bulls, backwardation thing, will join you bulls soon, but the retail side is not ready for higher prices, yet, give them some time
The price is now higher with a 2 week dry weather and 78% harvest completion than with rain and 54% completion.
Brazil is under Trumps diplomatic and political attack. Is it the next target after Venecuela, Iran ? Watch the USD/BRL !
Recent news from Expocacer: By July 31, the Arabica coffee harvest in the region served by the Cerrado Coffee Growers' Cooperative (Expocacer) had reached 66%, with 46% of the harvested volume already processed, yielding an average of 500 liters per processed 60-kg bag. This figure represents a slight delay compared to the same period in 2025, when operations stood at 70%.
*more than 50 years
Retire old man
i will, maybe in 20 years
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The lower demand applies specifically to retail volume sales in heavily inflated Western markets and South America. For example, high inflation caused Brazilian domestic retail coffee sales to drop by over 5% as shoppers tightened their budgets. Wow Brazils demand is crumbling due to these prices
You're gonna live in highly inflated markets for decades :). Coffee actually may help to mitigate the frustration as it is a clinically proven antidepressant :):):).
According to Safras & Mercado, Brazil's 2026/27 coffee harvest was 78% complete as of late July 2026
Abt 60 mil bags. Nice. Already 30% above last year crop.
Again callling invisible rain in CB. Comedy time.
Source? I couldn't find anything with google search.
The Honorable B....CHART
AA - itching to ask you one more question :): as physical trader only what is/would be your goal ?
 Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that no rain fell in the week ended August 2 in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s biggest coffee-growing region. SO THEY CONFIRMED FOR THEMSELVES THAT THEY ARE INCOMPETENT. NICE TO ADMIT FINALLY, AFTER SO MANY YEARS OF INCOMPETENCE.
If you will decide to be reasonable and somehow :) will consider them being incompetent both ways , that you will quickly come a very simple and very logical conclusion: it makes no sense to guess what exact effect potential event may provoke but it makes sense to expect, that if the setup is for the records book, then outcome also has a chance to be for the records book and of the same polarity as it was in a past in relation to a similar set up in past. Big crops get bigger and small crops get smaller for a reason :). The reality for now for A in Brazil is that 2026 is gonna be a decent crop, far from record and possibly revised on fallen beans/quality issues. The expectation short term is that upcoming flowering unlikely :) has a chance to be amazing, etc. Both factors on the historically low stocks nevertheless are not immediately spiking bullish (the real catalyst is needed for that) but they are ... absolutely not bearish. It doesn't mean that KC can't get sold and reach lower levels - it means that that 260 - 280 is a very real support cluster that needs to be defeated before 200 comes into play. A simple logic also implies that if fall months will not provide the decisive break and at least touch of 200 level, then business as usual is not in the cards...
You may believe in whatever stories about farmers storing tens of millions of bags under the bed or wherever else but the problem is that market doesn't believe it. :):):)
An effective exercise would be: Ask your self why on all the expansions in area and density USDA did not state at least 50.5mb for A in 2026 ? Why 47.5mb but not 50.5mb ??? :)
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August 3, 2026 - E360 Digest - In an Already Broiling Summer, El Niño Is About to Turn Up the Heat - 'El Niño is not just on our doorstep — it is inside the house and turning up the heat,' said U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres. 'And this is only a warm-up act. El Niño is strengthening — adding fuel to a planet already on fire with scorching heat domes, apocalyptic wildfires, and record hot seas.'
Yup. I just had a quick read through the NOAA published August 3rd, 2026 report about El Nino. Bottom line, bullish for volatility and near-term risk premium; potentially bullish for the 2027 crop narrative; irrelevant as proof of damage to the crop currently being harvested. It delays the bearish normalization thesis rather than invalidating it.
The real problem is how these headlines impact price action. I'm having difficulty believing that KC price will simply melt down. Todays move down have more volume than Friday but it is continuing to be well defended at the lower end of the trading range today. ICE stock fell again and pending grading had no change since Friday. This is not supportive for prices.
CORRECTION - This is not supportive for prices. was supposed to be This is supportive for prices.
Coffee KC — I still believe the broader move is lower, but timing remains the problem. The original weather scare did not develop as feared, yet it cleared weak shorts and left managed money with greater influence over price action. The market is now in no-man’s-land: the current crop argues for lower prices, but any real or perceived supply threat can quickly rebuild risk premium. Weather headlines are being treated as systemic problems, even when the direct impact on coffee supply is unclear. My job is not to predict the final destination perfectly, but to trade the structure in front of me. For now, I do not see the major decline starting immediately. Another weather scare, probably rain-related, could produce another upward squeeze. The move down will take broad reporting that coffee is abundent. One way that might happen is when the ICE inventories shoot up. Even a lingering El Nino issue will have a hard time offsetting the ICE inventory buildup. With the pending grading bags at about 2,600, I would say we have a ways to go before the picture for the move down is in place.
*USD/COP
Possibly But I would rather say no hyped lies anymore, as on Friday was abt an invisible rain over weekend. Until they.invest some other stupidity.
I honestly don't know why you're still so focused on fundamentals. The market isn't what it should be anymore, and fundamentals are just made up to justify price movements. It's not worth getting angry and always speaking disrespectfully; believe me, that won't move the market.
Colombia matters heavily for washed arabica and physical differentials, but it is not large enough by itself to dictate the entire Coffee C market. Research examining Latin American arabica markets found that changes in the Colombian exchange rate alone did not consistently determine global arabica prices because Colombia’s market share was insufficient to dominate the benchmark. Brazilian selling, the BRL, crop expectations, fund positioning and weather remain larger drivers of KC.
Don't get mad guys. Look at USC/COP. Do you see something special?
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Friday's increase of roughly 4,100 contracts in open interest, combined with higher prices, would normally be viewed as a constructive signal because it suggests new positions were established rather than the move being driven solely by short covering. However, today's price action has not provided the expected follow-through. If 316 fails to hold, it raises the possibility that Friday's new longs are under pressure. If buyers defend 316 and the market recovers, Friday's OI increase will look more like genuine accumulation than a failed breakout.
The next real big thing :) besides possible production revisions is upcoming flowering, which is already compromised because of the atypical rainfall in June/July. That points to a lower 2027 OFF crop vs it would normal in relation to 47mb A 2026 ON. If kinda normal 2027 OFF would be about 44mb on 47.5mb, a lower one due to rains/flowering issues may be seen within 40-42mb range.
Yes, Helmut, there was no disaster for A 2026 and this is the point. There was no expected recovery replicating 2018/2020 production what was frustrating and telling for many and very possibly the production will be a bit revised due to rain related issues (remains to be seen). But 2027 OFF crop is a different story as amazing uniform flowering will ... unlikely happen :):):). If El Nino will add a bit of an insult to injury, then the things may go very south, 2028 including. As Marcus said, the main firework may be very reasonbly expected around 2028 production, which will mark 10 years from 2018 great number for A !!!
Don't repeat then :).
What we expect about coffee price.who is tell us.
By July 15, the harvest was reportedly 64% complete. At that stage, cooperatives, exporters and large growers should possess actual harvested-yield data—not just weather anecdotes. We should be seeing consistently poor bags per hectare, sharply reduced warehouse receipts, lower processing outturns, abnormal defect counts, reduced exporter offers and credible agency downgrades.
I haven't heard of 15-20-30-40% losses in relation to a national production and it makes no sense to evaluate it as if it would be the case everybody would know about it already. The rumors now are about ES R drop within 15 - 30%, 20% as an average if confirmed, would represent roughly 3.5mb, make it 3mb or 2.5mb conservatively... Arabica wise make it 2-2.5mb as example, in total may be viewed as 5mb, etc. The 5mb is below 10% of projected total and if confirmed, would be absolutely within the rate of mistake for initial projection. 72mb - 5mb = 67mb vs projected 23mb domestic and 45 mb export = stocks, carried out from previous MY. Quality loss percentage wise will be understood more precisely on a later basis, closer to the end of August/mid of September. If considered being significant - the export forecast will be revised... By itself the loss of 5mb is not enough to catapult the market but in current circumstances it would provide the support and thus, any real catalyst(s) would start from higher base. Next big factor is flowering and it should be watched very closely, any big mess will be incorporated very quickly... Arabica wise, and it is very important, if quantity loss will be viewed as 2-3mb it will throw the yield back to ... OFF 2023 crop production, will point to the absence of recovery and will be considered as a real disappointment... on all the expansions that happened on stimulative price...
ES R wise, it is important that 2015/16 El Nino produced long lasting effect on ES R production. Nobody knows how it's gonna be this time but on historical basis (which can be not proven this time but for now remains the only recent relevant USDA data set ) the effect was truly devastating...
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Viriato Magalhaes very true , that is why I think real bull market will only start in 2027 and most proce increases will be then IMHO
Hey Coffee KC, what's your read going into next week? This morning in premarket I watched the price climb steadally to more than 330 before pulling back for the open. Yesterday's Open interest is slightly down (-141 lots) say flat and the volume was down by a little over 20%. I would ask Vitario but I pretty sure I know his answer.
If you will look at the anomalies you will have to assume that current climatic pattern is absolutely not the business as usual. I don't want to talk about GSM :) again but the degree of anomalies should point to a much higher risk in terms of production issues, etc. Geopolitical meaning ferts, energies, etc - as well... If you will look at the monthly chart you will see that current formation from the top kinda :):):) reminiscent of May 2011 - July 2012 segment and thus :), may point to another test of 200 - 240 cluster with a final low in Dec 2027 or it may not - all will depend on the development. If you will decided to apply GSM then you will have to conclude that you've entered uncharted territory and then risk is ... unknown, meaning you can't cap it in general. And it has nothing to do with all is lost paradigm but with consistent underproduction vs even constantly rationing market... Imagine for a sec, what may happen if this or that fungus will get out of the range due to broken, historically not typical weather pattern at the time when ferts/chemicals are very expensive and the density is 5000tr/ha ? All will not be lost but the drop in yield will be significant and not immediately curable...
AA - if you will get Colombia as example and would like to trust last USDA numbers, then you will see that on all replanting programs, resistant cultivars and high density planting pattern, the yield is ... below 20b/ha.
Nothing in your message offended or agitated me. Any publicly available data point is worth considering. My concern is separating confirmed facts from assumptions about crop loss and price impact. As for the GSM discussion, well, I'm sceptical. People who believe resonate with other people who believe. I'm just not in that camp for now.
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The whole globe is getiing messed up the last few years with oil fluctuations, fertiliser costs, weather fluctuations, risks of Hormuz, suez, red sea, panama canal all being shut or throttled, wage inflation, instanbility politically, never mind a possible huge weather complex predicted later this year and yet the infants on here cant get why futures are rising???
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As soon as coffee rallies just a little bit this cancer of coffee market Maja straight away appears spreading her usual nonsense , every time she comes out bullish next day coffee dumps
Maja should be arrested tbh. How is this even legal is the question
Which brains listen to Maja ?
WHO IS SENDING SUCH LYING INFORMATION. THERE IS SIMPLY NO RAIN AT ALL IN COFFEE BELT BRAZIL. MARKET HAS NEVER BEEN MORE MANIPULATED. US Coffee C Futures climbed 2.2% today, with prices reaching 330.3 cents per pound, as a renewed wave of disruptive rainfall across Brazil's core coffee-growing regions deepened harvest delays and stoked fresh supply anxiety in an already tight physical market
Yes all weatherstations litt said 10 day forecast is warm and dry, perfect to fasten the harvest. I guess they were out of manipulating reasons so now they just lie haha
Looks like a new base is building around the 320-325 level.
Wow, the new base has been built and now you are a tarot card reader?
would you like some cheese with that whine?
Coffee Arabica - Every week the forum gets a new KAREN AWARD winner. Guess who I'm nominating. I was simply pointing out that comments like those made by Ro AI to the current market may be flawed for those like minded. Anyway, you keep leading with your 5 contract orders.
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Brazil warehouses are packed. So lets see what they will do with abt 35-40% of crop left or 28-32 million bags. That will be very interesting.
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Interesting, where do you think coffee should trade as a result? To me chart still looks bullish unless we trade below 322 and stay there , but I know very little about coffee fundamentals
I see a triple double apple bottom jeans chart, indicating room to go up and down, but maybe even room to stay put.
Kenan, is the game still rigged or not that much anymore ? :)
Why was market 45 usc in 2002, with one of biggest inflation rates between 1979 - 2022 ? Any smart answers on that wise boy ?
2002
So, you consider yourself intelligent for using a year of major crisis in the coffee sector as the basis for your data?
After start of session +10.00n settles at -2.75. Lets see how August begins tomorrow, without a slightly chance of any frost.
This is still a tinder box regardless of any potential non-frost. Any single thing that is slightly negative towards the yield this year or any potential issues with the next crop will make this thing pop. God forbide we have a couple of issues like the current crop size being softer than anticipated and no rains in Sep/Oct because of El Nino, the DEC26 will pop like the cork off a champagne bottle on New Years Eve. If that happens then the druken traders will be in charge and I'm not sure 450 will stop the locamotive. Right now Euro drives it up until 8AM EST then NY slams it down. Only thing working for the bears are lower highs and lower lows. Let's see how long that lasts. Tomorrows plan is already layed out now let's see how it plays out. Either a new home or a soup line. Let's see.
Anybody else have problems with a rogue script in the investing.com adverts creating a sticky redirect to a false security page? I had to setup my browser to ignore certain investing.com scripts to stop the redirection.
Yes. As soon as you start expressing bullish bias or oppose Helmut :) !!! Frankly, I do a lot within last several days ...
Yup. 7 days is about the time the issue came up. It's tied to their advertizing. Some script named omweb-v1.js is the issue. it only happens on this site.
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looks like some traders from Manhattan do not want to get delivered bags of coffee in September.
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