Bonds Analysis & Opinion

One of the traders in the Forex Analytix community (Grasshopper) pointed out that the United States 10-Year Yields are developing an inverted head and shoulder pattern, which may lead (on a breakout)...

Usually with US auctions this strong, we're in the midst of a bond market rally with considerable room for more. But the downside moves have been tame in fact, despite the recession talk to boot. We...

I was going to write a technical column today about how the sensitivity of bonds (and consequently, lots of other asset prices) to interest rates increase as interest rates decline, and discuss the...

The 2022 macro narrative was dominated by the highly positive correlation between bond and stock prices (i.e. rising yields and falling stocks). In this period, exogenous central bank action drove...

In 2022, investors watched the Federal Reserve hike interest rates very quickly. And this in turn saw bond yields move much higher. Now in 2023, bond yields are beginning to moderate and pull back. We...

Interest rates have risen rather quickly as the Federal Reserve attempts to fight inflation. Will the move be a case of too far, too fast? Today’s long-term monthly chart of the United States 10-Year...

The Federal Reserve is expected to lift interest rates again at the next FOMC meeting on Feb. 1, but the futures market is pricing in high odds that the increase will be trimmed to a relatively mild...

Celebrating the drop in German inflation may be premature and headwinds to bond performance, especially for those denominated in euros, remain. The Fed minutes might not fulfill all of the...

Markets continue to fall, and trailing yields continue to rise. The inverse relationship, in theory, presents yield-hungry investors with enhanced opportunity. The challenge, as always, is whether to...

Most of the major asset classes suffered last week as markets reassessed the risk of ongoing hikes in interest rates and elevated recession risk, based on a set of ETFs for the trading week through...

The United States 10-Year yield continues to look elevated relative to CapitalSpectator.com’s “fair-value” estimate, which is based on the average of three models. That’s no...

Markets need to re-think the sustainability of the bond rally seen in the past month. Nominal and real rates are seen up. But not by very much. With no sense as of yet that the Fed is done, we...

10-Year US Yields About to Rebound Higher?The United States 10-Year Yields have been pulling back since toping back in October at 4.33% but are they about to rebound from current levels? The market...

Important inflation data hits Tuesday before the Fed finishes its final meeting of the year on Wednesday Corporate bond spreads should continue to be monitored, but we are not seeing significant...