10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators advanced their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of...
China’s holdings of Treasury securities fell $5.8 billion month-over-month in April to $1.18 trillion. It remains the largest holder of these securities. In China versus the US, if the current...
Let me be quick to acknowledge that yield curve inversion can have considerable lag time before a recession. And for that matter, the U.S. Treasury bond curve can invert long before a stock market...
In the first part of this article, we explore the unfortunate consequences of antiquated financial services operations and their impact on the world’s poorest people.
[This post is an excerpt from a TSI commentary] Conventional wisdom is that an inversion of the yield curve (short-term interest rates moving above long-term interest rates) signals that a recession...
US 10 Year Note Futures Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large treasury speculators cut back on their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest...
Note: We've updated this commentary with data through today's market close. Let's take a closer look at recent activity in US Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year note ended Friday at 2.93% and the...
The Federal Reserve held its latest policy meeting this week, and continued to indicate that the economy looks great in their eyes, and that it's full steam ahead with interest rate increases (at...
The long end of the Treasury yield curve is doing it again. It refuses to go along with the Fed’s tightening campaign, particularly, so, on Wednesday as policymakers were a slightly more hawkish...
Summary The yield curve hasn't moved much in the last six weeks. While the corporate market has moved out in absolute terms since the first of the year, the spread to the corresponding treasury is...
The chart above looks at the yield on the US 10-Year note (TNX) over the past 25-years. The long-term trend is down as an important trend test is in play currently. The 10-year yield has spent the...
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates today, a policy move that may further squeeze the difference between short and long Treasury yields. If the already narrow rate spread...
Just about the only “honest” market left is bonds, which are reflecting the true underlying state of the world economy. The EMB market, which peaked on January 5, has been following a...
US 10 Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bonds speculators sharply decreased their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest...
European political uncertainty spiked volatility in sovereign bond markets and the euro Hawkish emerging market monetary policy attempts to alleviate local FX havoc and inflationary concerns Chances...
In this space I write a lot about inflation, but specifically I focus mostly on US inflation. However, inflation is substantially a global process – a paper by two ECB economists in 2005 (and...
