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In a blog post in February-2017, we discussed an age-old relationship between interest rates and prices. The following chart-based comparison of the T-Bond yield and the commodity/gold ratio is a...
Over the weekend we covered the weekly charts of the Economic Modern Family. All the original Modern Family (Russell 2000 (IWM), Retail XRT, Transportation IYT, Regional Banks KRE, Biotechnology...
The spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield vs. a ‘fair value’ estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com narrowed to a three-month low in June. The market-based yield is still well above this...
The last time the Fed cut the Fed funds rate, the Fed easing monetary policy started with Janet Yellen in Q4 ’16 and ended with Jay Powell in late 2018. The TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF...
A month ago it was reasonable to wonder if the worst was over for fixed-income securities writ large. Four weeks later, Treasury prices are slightly higher, but the debate continues as investors...
When stocks are in a bull market, we tend to see assets like growth stocks and junk bonds perform well as investors are in “risk-on” mode. And oftentimes, these are the assets to start...
The US 10-year Treasury yield continues to defy The Capital Spectator’s ‘fair-value’ estimate by trading at a premium to this model, but the relatively wide gap still appears to be a constraint to...
The sharp drop in Treasury yields in recent days has revived chatter that the worst for the bond market may be over. It’s still early to confidently forecast that scenario, but the odds for recovery...
After a huge down move that began in December 2021, the long bonds or TLT have had a few shallow short-covering rallies, but not much more than that. The “higher-for-longer” for interest rates...
When the US Treasury yield curve inverts (short rates rise above long rates) the shift is widely viewed as a reliable forecast that a recession is near. But this time has been different, or so it...
A ‘fair-value’ estimate of the US 10-year Treasury yield was steady in April while the market level for the benchmark rate continued to rise well above the theoretical level. But trading...
The stock market keeps on pushing higher despite. Against this backdrop, investors should exercise caution due to high valuations and market cyclicality. Bonds offer attractive returns and can reduce...
The below is Briefing.com’s weekly economic data table. April ’24 PPI and April ’24 CPI are due out Tuesday, May 14th, and Wednesday, May 15th, respectively.Shelter or OER (owners...
Foreign fixed-income markets from a US investor perspective have been an unappealing asset class lately – with a glaring exception: corporate bonds in emerging markets. Year to date, this slice...
Government bond yields and interest rates have been rising all around the world. And investors aren’t quite sure what to make of it.Perhaps there is some complacency that has set in after years...