Bonds Analysis & Opinion

There’s no shortage of indicators to monitor for deciding if the expected runup in inflation is a temporary affair or regime shift that signals a longer-term rise in pricing pressure. I recently...

U.S. Treasuries appear to be treading water. That's keeping yields on the 10-year benchmark at about 1.60% despite the usual fluctuations. Investors have priced in robust economic news, but a bullish...

Stay short and favor junk bonds. That, at least, is what’s worked rather well so far this year, based on set of ETFs representing the major slices of US fixed-income markets. But as reflation...

Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury are in a holding pattern after receding from highs last month as investors await the first clue as to how fast the U.S. economy is growing when GDP for the...

If your historical perspective is defined the last several months, the recent jump in the benchmark 10-year Treasury rate looks significant. But a longer term view suggests otherwise. That will change...

The recent rise in Treasury yields is on hold for the moment. So is the normally shifting sands of trailing yields for the various components of the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange...

Stabilizing UST yields month to date gives investors more confidence in shorting the USD, but growth downgrades on covid-related setbacks in EM could slow this move. The USD sell-off itself is...

Click on and expand the above iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) chart and you’ll see the ETF holding weekly support. If readers would then look at the bottom third of the chart, you’ll...

We blame the bond rally on geopolitical tensions, and on post-supply relief. It looks set to continue but deeply negative real rates lessen the pressure on the ECB to deliver a dovish message next...

Retail Sales are projected to surge  Stimulus check, better weather and return of Texas could mean 10% rise Bonds remain nonplussed Lower bond yields should keep the risk-on trade rolling  Retail...

Everyone agrees investors will be paying close attention to the March consumer price index release from the U.S. Labor Department today [Tuesday]. What analysts don’t agree on—because they don’t...

We look through potential reasons for the April bounce in fixed income. A stubborn Fed and gloomy Eurozone outlook provide the best, if unsatisfactory, explanations. Upcoming US inflation data and...

Over the past several days, buying interest has resumed in US 10-year T-Notes, after it fell below its long-term uptrend channel median, as shown on the following monthly chart. Major resistance lies...

Does a 1.7% US Treasury yield look right after Friday's payrolls report?This is a boom period for the US economy. Granted, it is all about emerging from a hole of Covid-19 induced despair, but it will...