Bonds Analysis & Opinion

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators increased their bearish net positions in the US 10 Year T-Note Futures markets last week, according to the latest Commitment...

Summary The most recent Beige Book has more bearish commentary than we've seen over the last few years. According to the WSJ, the Fed is thinking about pausing its rate hiking program after a December...

One of the most reliable indicators of an economic slowdown just flashed a warning sign this week. On Monday, the yield curve between the five-year Treasury yield and three-year Treasury yield...

The yield curve inverts when the Fed keeps hiking in the face of a slowdown. Bianco research noted today "There has not been one instance where the 2-year 5-year spread inverts and the 3-month...

Last week when Jerome Powell – the Federal Reserve Chairman – said that we were now “just below” the neutral rate of interest, markets soared and bonds rallied. In case you...

The last three weeks of November saw a bounce in the bond market, with intermediate and longer bond yields falling after spending most of 2018 rising. If we look at the US Treasury market (chart 1),...

As you’ve no doubt heard, US President Trump and Chinese President Xi were able to reach a ceasefire agreement at the G20 summit in Argentina over the weekend. In exchange for the US agreeing to...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators continued to cut back on their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest...

10-year note yield falling below the uptrend and psychological line of around 3% will lead to increasing note technical buying. Time will show if lower rates will start supporting the stock market or...

This chart looks at junk-bond fund PHDAX and the S&P 500 over the past 25 years. Junk bonds sent bearish messages before stocks peaked in 2000 and 2007. Bearish divergences took place for 24...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators strongly reduced their bearish net positions in the US 10 Year T-Note Futures markets this week, according to the latest...

This chart looks at the yield of the 2-year note and its 5.5-year performance since 1999. The 2-year yield looks to have double bottomed in 2013 and since then it has been swiftly moving higher...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators raised their bearish net positions in the US 10 Year T-Note Futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of...

Here’s our first take after the midterm elections. The polls actually got it right, with the Democrats taking the House of Representatives and the Republicans enjoying a slight pickup in the...