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Fed Rate Monitor Tool
Fed Interest Rate Decision Dec 13, 2023 01:00PM ET
1
Weeks
2
Days
20
Hours
20
Minutes
Our Fed rate monitor calculator is based on CME Group 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices, which tend to signal the markets’ expectations regarding the possibility of changes to US interest rates based on Fed monetary policy. The tool allows users to calculate the likelihood of an upcoming Fed rate hike or cut.
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Dec 13, 2023 01:00PM ET
Future Price:
94.670
5.25 - 5.50
98.8%
5.50 - 5.75
1.2%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 98.8% | 99.3% | 95.5% |
| 5.50 - 5.75 | 1.2% | 0.7% | 4.5% |
Updated: Dec 02, 2023 12:35AM EST
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jan 31, 2024 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
94.670
5.00 - 5.25
14.3%
5.25 - 5.50
84.7%
5.50 - 5.75
1.0%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 14.3% | 8.2% | — |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 84.7% | 91.2% | 87.6% |
| 5.50 - 5.75 | 1.0% | 0.6% | 12.0% |
| 5.75 - 6.00 | — | — | 0.4% |
Updated: Dec 02, 2023 12:35AM EST
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Mar 20, 2024 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
94.760
4.75 - 5.00
8.3%
5.00 - 5.25
55.1%
5.25 - 5.50
36.2%
5.50 - 5.75
0.4%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 8.3% | 3.8% | — |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 55.1% | 46.4% | 21.0% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 36.2% | 49.5% | 69.5% |
| 5.50 - 5.75 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 9.2% |
| 5.75 - 6.00 | — | — | 0.3% |
Updated: Dec 02, 2023 12:35AM EST
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
May 01, 2024 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.035
4.50 - 4.75
5.9%
4.75 - 5.00
41.9%
5.00 - 5.25
41.5%
5.25 - 5.50
10.5%
5.50 - 5.75
0.1%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 5.9% | 2.4% | — |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 41.9% | 30.9% | 8.1% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 41.5% | 48.4% | 39.7% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 10.5% | 18.2% | 46.3% |
| 5.50 - 5.75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 5.8% |
| 5.75 - 6.00 | — | — | 0.2% |
Updated: Dec 02, 2023 12:35AM EST
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jun 12, 2024 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.165
4.25 - 4.50
5.1%
4.50 - 4.75
36.7%
4.75 - 5.00
41.6%
5.00 - 5.25
15.0%
5.25 - 5.50
1.6%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 5.1% | 1.7% | — |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 36.7% | 22.3% | 4.0% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 41.6% | 43.1% | 23.8% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 15.0% | 27.3% | 43.0% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 1.6% | 5.5% | 26.1% |
| 5.50 - 5.75 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0% |
| 5.75 - 6.00 | — | — | 0.1% |
Updated: Dec 02, 2023 12:35AM EST
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jul 31, 2024 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.250
4.00 - 4.25
4.1%
4.25 - 4.50
30.6%
4.50 - 4.75
40.6%
4.75 - 5.00
20.1%
5.00 - 5.25
4.2%
5.25 - 5.50
0.3%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 4.1% | 1.2% | — |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 30.6% | 16.6% | 2.2% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 40.6% | 37.4% | 14.7% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 20.1% | 31.6% | 34.1% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 4.2% | 11.6% | 33.9% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 0.3% | 1.6% | 13.7% |
| 5.50 - 5.75 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.4% |
| 5.75 - 6.00 | — | — | 0.0% |
Updated: Dec 02, 2023 12:35AM EST
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Sep 18, 2024 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.525
3.75 - 4.00
3.4%
4.00 - 4.25
25.8%
4.25 - 4.50
38.8%
4.50 - 4.75
23.8%
4.75 - 5.00
7.1%
5.00 - 5.25
1.0%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 3.4% | 0.9% | — |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.3% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 38.8% | 32.4% | 9.7% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 23.8% | 33.0% | 26.3% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 7.1% | 16.4% | 34.0% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 1.0% | 4.0% | 21.8% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 6.3% |
| 5.50 - 5.75 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| 5.75 - 6.00 | — | — | 0.0% |
Updated: Dec 02, 2023 12:35AM EST
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Nov 07, 2024 01:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.790
3.50 - 3.75
2.2%
3.75 - 4.00
18.0%
4.00 - 4.25
34.3%
4.25 - 4.50
29.1%
4.50 - 4.75
12.9%
4.75 - 5.00
3.1%
5.00 - 5.25
0.4%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 2.2% | 0.6% | — |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 0.7% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 34.3% | 25.0% | 5.7% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 29.1% | 32.8% | 18.4% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 12.9% | 22.7% | 30.4% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 3.1% | 8.7% | 27.6% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 13.6% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 3.3% |
| 5.50 - 5.75 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| 5.75 - 6.00 | — | — | 0.0% |
Updated: Dec 02, 2023 12:35AM EST
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Dec 18, 2024 01:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.895
3.25 - 3.50
1.6%
3.50 - 3.75
13.7%
3.75 - 4.00
29.9%
4.00 - 4.25
30.5%
4.25 - 4.50
17.3%
4.50 - 4.75
5.8%
4.75 - 5.00
1.1%
5.00 - 5.25
0.1%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 1.6% | 0.5% | — |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 13.7% | 7.1% | 0.5% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 29.9% | 22.3% | 4.2% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 30.5% | 31.5% | 14.5% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 17.3% | 24.3% | 26.7% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 5.8% | 10.9% | 28.4% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 1.1% | 2.9% | 17.9% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 6.5% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% |
| 5.50 - 5.75 | — | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 5.75 - 6.00 | — | — | 0.0% |
Updated: Dec 02, 2023 12:35AM EST
Fed Fund Rates
News
Gold prices steady after strong November gains, Powell in focus
By Investing.com - Dec 01, 2023
1
Investing.com-- Gold prices steadied near a seven-month high on Friday, pausing their recent rally amid anticipation of more cues on U.S. interest rates from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later...
Asian stocks sink after stellar November, PMIs offer mixed cues
By Investing.com - Nov 30, 2023
Investing.com-- Most Asian stocks retreated on Friday, seeing a measure of profit taking after clocking strong gains through November, with focus now turning to an upcoming address from Fed Chair...
Gold prices pause near 7-mth high with PCE inflation data in focus
By Investing.com - Nov 30, 2023
Investing.com-- Gold prices fell slightly on Thursday as a recent rally in the yellow metal appeared to have paused, as markets awaited more cues on U.S. monetary policy from a key inflation reading...
Analysis
EUR/USD Consolidates Amid Divergent Central Bank Signals: How to Trade it
By Damian Nowiszewski - Nov 09, 2023
4
Recent turn of events have interrupted the EUR/USD pair's surge, prompting a broad correction Fed members have remained cautious in recent speeches, hinting at a potential status quo in interest...
Last Week's Broad-Based Market Rally Signals a Turning Point For Bulls
By James Picerno - Nov 06, 2023
2
Last week’s news that the Federal Reserve left interest rates steady, followed by a slower-than-expected rise in payrolls in October, revived animal spirits. Now comes the hard part: Was it noise, or...
Risk-On Sentiment Sends US Dollar Lower: Is Euro Parity Slipping Away?
By Günay Caymaz - Nov 06, 2023
7
Recent market shifts influenced by the Fed's decision and employment data have led to a decline in US Treasury yields and the US dollar. Despite the weakening economic data and geopolitical tensions,...