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Market recently made a lower high once again which once again which indicates long term January was the top. Market is overvalued, FED is selling now, BOJ stopped pumping, & Yellen is gone so it makes sense for the bear market to happen now. Not to mention the fact a recession has occurred under every Republican president for the past 100 years.
Oh Canuck, you make me laugh. Just because I recently joined does not mean I "shorted at 2620." Lol I have been bearish since that rally in Feb ended. It was a failed return to previous highs after a clear double bottom in futures. Corrections usually end with double bottoms, but this time was different. Market was too weak to return to highs which indicates it will head lower.
For now the market will not be able to hold declines below 2600, tops and bottoms will continue to tighten until next hike!wt the end of q2. 10 years will cause more vol in the market the rest of the week but will prob be a buying op for Friday after weds and thurs auctions push yields lower. I expect a sustainable bounce on Friday into Monday... how low will it go intraday anyone’s guess. I don’t like shorts under 2600
I have read this a few times now and aside from your dislike I cannot see a reason for 2600 meaning a thing as far as why a short can't be sustained under it. That is okay though because I think you will find out soon enough
getting shafted on my 268 SPY short straddle, not too bad after the bounce at the close. closed short Call leg. 17% down right now. still expecting to win.
i told you yesterday, buying straddle is better... u could still win, but the theory is wrong if VIX explodes and price moves in one direction (like today)...
April low was 255, thus May is likely to be lower if the monthly correction continues... I would guess 248-268 range, but ask me again on 30th April...
Short long term hurts, Market up YOY enough to squeeze any short, Market up from 1800 in just over 2 years. Market is up 5% from Feb lows alone....Let me guess you are the amazing short that opened your first account in Jan and shorted??? ;)
You know what data point is ironic. You joined Apr 11th, screaming short so that is your only history and based on that, you shorted @ 2620 range..You are down, in fact you missed the 100pt run I call that week !! Face it you hate $$...You will stick with a short that isn't even green yet and "short long term" will be a death sentence. I enjoy keeping track of this stuff.
Retired Canuck Doug if you have any interest in Howard Hughes scroll down the page a bit to a previous reply. But I can tell you some things nobody new or rather believed and somthing Hughes didn’t know that it wasn’t just the eastern banks trying to take everything from him but someone close to him helping them
Retired Canuck I primarily trade the resistance, where breakouts most likely will happen. Wont do it in mid trade. Will catch the bounce as well with a back spread. Or add an opposite position..
Arthur, sorry couldn't reply below. I don't disagree at all it just isn't what I am looking for. I gave up a little early on the gap fill from 3/21 but other than that this thing is behaving like I believed it would. The last diagonal that just broke down started at the April low and tossed another one in the mix. Both of these suggest a break down at the point of origin and in this case it is the April low. Patterns fail and I understand that but my target has been 2462 by May 18th though I thought it could come sooner. Once 4/6 low is taken out acceleration can occur. For now you have a long still in play, I see it, you see it so ya exercise patience til it is gone. Always another trade
Smokey.....remember the market is efficient at one thing.....disappointing the majority no matter what their side, but the majority is always on the side the market was heading last.
Arthur Sommer 10/2 curve is actually fairly normal for a bull market. It was flat for most of the 90s. This is all just a lesson in Agenda based noise. Nothing new, retail $$ getting sucked in the wrong direction. You and I get to profit of these noobs.
R.C...Doug I don’t know if I ever mentioned it, long story but I have or had(still have a lot) all of Howard Hughes financial records from 1950 to 60, all the loans he signed to purchase RKO TWA etc. the man would borrow everything took loan after loan to pay previous loans. Take loans to purchase for instance RKO and use RKO as collateral before the purchase for 36 million pay 23 for RKO and pay a previous loan then take another one. I found it interesting every time he made a large purchase of atlas(a decision he came to regret) he would take a put option with it. Irving trust at 1 Wall st. Was his financial agent when they couldn’t keep up with him they would solicit other banks. Some of the rejection letters where interesting when you come to realize Hughes actually stiffed a couple for over a mil. On unsecured loans and risky collateral like chase and BAC.
It's funny the arguments made on this board-after years of near zero percent short-term interest rate repression and other extraordinary measures artificially inflating risk asset prices-now that some of that has changed with central banks scaling back, it's still a positive for risk assets. Interest rates going higher will be great for stocks and real estate with prices that were inflated from massive debt hokum.
Iron Mike Up, down on daily basis is irrelevant. In a month from now we will be lower. In 2 months wwe will be even further down. This won't have a meaningful rebound until the low 2300s
20 over 200 didn't sustain. Generally, 4H 20/200 crossovers create a trend that lasts 12 weeks, this is almost where we are now for the trend that started early Feb. Question: will trend continue or reverse for next 12 weeks?
just to put it in perspective the 2017 gains with today's closing price still sits > 18% .. so ball is still in bulls court .. just don't get too greedy ... let's get back to the yearly average gains (absolute) .. that's all :)
Smokey.....in all seriousness we won’t know if this was the bottom or not until we move below it and so far ever strong up turn has everyone talking about the correction being over and new ATH’s and every down turn talking about the end of the bull market and new lows. Would be so bad if it weren’t swinging so much.
Sorry, response was to Canuck. The 'Reply' does not seem to work. I'm new to this site. In the late 90's I hung out at another futures trading site, but it's been a while.
hmm... well, we need a green day this week... might as well be tomorrow... with such a large range today, inside day is likely... but market hates inside days... might be a good day to adjust strikes and lower cost basis... as selloff isn't done IMO...
Buy low.....you happen to notice the giant green bar for 500 million that hit at the close in cash. 10x bigger then any bar through out the day......a lot of covering
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