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Anybody else noticed that VIX +5.5% while the major indices are essentially flat? VIX usually goes down on Fridays. I believe the bull trap is in place and we will gap down as soon as the markets open.
On the flip side it still has More down side and if it doesn’t bounce from $65 it will have been a false break out and slide all the way down to the 200ma rather fast.
Hope you made a *******in the oil shorts Charles. Mine lifted my whole account up a significant amount, I have been down on my tech bubble shorts for a while but still confident the bubbles will pop.
Barry Bearish Bear Good job. My CL puts are ITM 66 to 60. I bought a *** ton at a excellent price. Could cash out now for a profit but going to wait this one out, they expire 6/18. Expecting major indices to fall anytime between june and August. Hold tight could happen this week!
To Arthur: that is good advice; I do spreads but not always. The reason I avoid spread this time is because my Primary thesis on Tuesday was that the market was to swing higher to 50 so if that occurred (which is what I gave more likelihood to) I would have to hold until expiration to realize the win IN case of a spread or have a much smaller gain overnight. In cases of buying calls only I can get out immediately even within a few minutes. Anyway, both have pros and cons. Again, good advice especially in this sideways/headline driven environment.
1hr Example:Not Advise of course.Keltner channel inside BB's.Overbought/Oversold Guesstimates.+The best short term oscillators of your choosing( Has been gold).
Look at TLT - somebody knows/suspects something bad is imminent. Look at XLE - same weekly dump as in January. If S&P starts rolling over it may be very violent just like in Jan-Feb
Gaptrap....XLE is understandable, you have to realize much of the run on oil has been driven by expectations brought on by Iran conflict on top of lower reserves then Saudi turned around and said they were going to increase output and let the steam out. The olther is T bonds and wth the fed dumping once a month yields spike when they do.
Was XLE pump and dump 'understandable' in January? Could XLE be leading again, hinting at general market drop? BTW, Qs, SPY both finished the week as black weekly candles.
Nyorka: Challenging market so better to buy stock for overnight. I'm long stock at 2730 (SPY 273) area (so currently down in paper loss); I decided to buy stock for overnight holds after getting killed on options calls this Tuesday night (-$44K when I woke up but reduced with intraday trades to -$15K on expected FOMC pop) per trade comments/non-fundamentals driving decay. So moral of the story is day trading working and overnight go with stock if you are bullish.
I appreciate your honesty thank you. I hope you recover all your losses and do well in 2018. Perhaps your bets are too big for this environment. Good luck.
I think u r honest person..you share your thought and help people..one thing I would tell you to trade small position...if big position..do not hold for long..always try to trade your plan..solid plan and stay on the plan..you will be fine..knowledge is power..
SPY if you are bullish:.a. Next day trade is 50/50 at 21; 70/30<10; so better to buy dip.b. Swing multi-day is 50/50 to 50; we could just as easily swing to <10.c. Swing multi-week is 60/40 to 50+ (progress on trade and 10YR remain=<3.25).d. LT fine to buy here; my EOY target remains at 2850.Wildcard: trade and geo/pol (including oil)
Shwetal Patel I’m long MU, the only new position I have so far this year and neutral overall on SPY being short puts from 2640 for 2630 strike and recently short calls from 2736 for 2745 end of June but hoping to just make that or rather keep that a spread if we can break out. I’m not optimistic for June but on the flip side it looks as if nobody is and that could trigger a big squeeze if things line up the right way.
They posted and said similar charts in gold EUR now oil. Oil bulls were 100% certain it would hit 80 then certain 100 would follow. Gold bulls also certain about1400. And last USD bears were absolutely certain that USD would be destroyed. Not to mention ALL the cryptos whom many on this board believed to be in a bull market--not realizing that the mania in cryptos was BIGGER than tulips in 1600s. Good luck never the less.
Daily 3,10,16MACD just can't make the bullish turn.Hull.Ma or(HMA 10)Barrier.Also against the short term SAR.Really need at least 3 energies lined up to rip.Daily.
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