Market Overview

The US economic outlook continues to improve for the upcoming first-quarter estimate of gross domestic product (GDP), based on a set of nowcasts. Compared with Q4’s solid increase, Q1 output is on...

Most major EU and US indices closed in the green yesterday, with Wall Street hitting fresh record highs after both the US retail sales for March and initial jobless claims beat market estimates. This...

US indices charged ahead towards new records overnight, powered by a series of first-rate earnings and a dazzling run of US economic data, all supported by the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines and...

The Fed I: Backward Looking Just in case we didn’t get the Fed’s memo on the change in its monetary framework, Fed Governor Lael Brainard explained it very clearly in a speech on Mar. 23 titled...

A wrath of Chinese economic data mostly came in below expectations and that along with heavy global bond yields was enough to drag sentiment down. China’s CSI 300 index extended its slide...

In a recent post I reviewed how asset allocation is a reliable tool for earning average to above-average returns (with average or below-average risk) for a given opportunity set. Let’s extend...

US March retail sales came in way above forecast. Headline was up 9.8% versus the forecast 5.8% – ex-autos was 8.4% against the expected 5.0%. Astonishingly, the US 10-year yield is actually down on a...

Yields nudge up: Two steps forward and one step back for tech stocks, a truly bullish EIA report for the US oil complex and commodity currencies rise. With US yields basing and rising ever so...

The US dollar continued to slide against most of its major counterparts, but although EU shares were mostly in the green, the US and Asian indices traded mixed. Today, market participants may focus on...

Cost-Push Inflation Could Break Out (And A Note On Gold)Before beginning the post a little context is in order. We anticipated the current pause in long-term Treasury yields (one indicator of...

Headline inflation rose sharply in March. The bond market yawned. It’s still early for deciding if last month’s acceleration in the Consumer Price Index is an early warning of things to...

S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 hit new records JNJ vaccine paused due to side effects Dollar falls as yields may top out Key EventsFutures on the Dow, S&P, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 as well as European...

Before progressing, it is worth revisiting Stoking The Embers of Inflation, a paper we wrote with Brett Freeze in 2018. At that time, the money supply was declining, and we argued, contrary to...

US inflation duly rose by 0.50% MoM for March overnight, roughly an eight-year high. However, the print was only just above expectations, and with markets ignoring the collapse of the China trade...