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It wasn’t an inspiring Wednesday. There was a lot of back-and-forth trading, followed by a late surge on news that the Trump team plans to rescind the Biden-era AI diffusion rule and replace it with...
Major U.S. stock indices closed in positive territory on Wednesday, buoyed by investor optimism following the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged. The decision, which was...
On May 7, 2025, the Federal Reserve of the United States (Fed) announced its decision to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged, placing it between 4.25% and 4.50%. This...
The Fed will remain on hold today, keeping the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%. It should continue to explain how it plans to assess and respond to likely changes in economic...
The Federal Reserve's May FOMC meeting arrives at a crucial moment for the market. While borrowing costs are forecast to remain unchanged, investors will scrutinize comments from Fed Chair Powell...
The first Great Conundrum was in the early 2000s after the 2001 – 2002 50% bear market in the SP 500 and the start of Gulf War II in March 2003. Alan Greenspan started hiking the fed funds rate (if...
Preliminary estimates for the US economic activity in the second quarter point to a recovery following a mild decline for GDP in the first quarter. The obvious caveat: Q2 data is still sparse and so...
European shares fell on Wednesday as investors looked at corporate earnings and updates on U.S.-China trade talks before the Federal Reserve's rate decision later in the day. U.S. Treasury Secretary...
This past weekend, OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, announced it would increase production by 411k barrels per day. The action follows a 250k increase last month. The decision is different from OPEC’s...
Dollar rebounds as US and China agree to hold trade talks Fed enters the spotlight; focus to fall on tariff commentary Euro gains after Merz elected as German Chancellor Wall Street rebounds, gold...
Gold Declines After India Strikes Pakistan Gold (XAU/USD) rose by 2.92% on Tuesday, continuing Monday's rise. The rise comes 'on demand from China, the world's biggest bullion buyer. While the US...
Two-way volatility returned to the US stock market, with major indices declining for a second consecutive session during the overnight US trading on 6 May. The pullback was driven by rising concerns...
Markets are relatively slow and trapped in tight ranges, whether we're looking at stocks or the Dollar Index itself. This is totally normal ahead of the FOMC rate decision, as everyone is waiting for...
All of this points to something big on the horizon, driven by two key catalysts. We’re entering a pivotal moment—one where the economic, monetary, and geopolitical landscape is shifting. These...
I recently posted a piece on the trade deficit. I wrote in generalities and broad estimates. I suppose I should have included a little more data. Figure 1 here shows imports and exports (solid...