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Bonds Analysis & Opinion

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James Picerno
10-Year Yield: Why the Hot Inflation Bounce Didn't Last By James Picerno - Feb 15, 2024 7

Yesterday I outlined the case that several ‘fair-value’ models suggest the current US 10-year Treasury yield appears high relative to the fundamentals.As a quick follow-up, what does a...

James Picerno
Treasury Market Misjudges Timing on First Rate Cut, Again By James Picerno - Feb 06, 2024 7

We’ve been here before. In the spring of 2023, the bond market rallied sharply, effectively forecasting a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.But the punt turned to tears as the Federal Reserve...

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