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ICE US Coffee C Futures - Sep 25 (KCc6)

ICE
Currency in USD
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227.00
-2.65(-1.15%)
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US Coffee C Futures Discussions

Anybody, who expects some official declarations of crop numbers, etc should keep in mind two main things: 1) what institution he would like to make it; 2) what history tells about similar situations in the past. In current situation, when confusion is quite high already, there are two organizations, that will play most significant role: CONAB and USDA. USDA will print it in December, CONAB's next one is gonna be in September. Until then the only true official :) numbers are exports and ECF/ICE stocks. History wise, and it is easy verifiable via previous reports, related to similar situations, both, CONAB and USDA never rushed to make very low or much lower projections before harvest is officially over. If the crop is not :) that amazing as many still hope :), CONAB will correct it in Sep report. But it would be very naive to expect CONAB to show 10mb drop from their May number, especially, assuming their methodology :) and final figures, etc. And USDA will say nothing until Dec, what is very smart, as it lets the dust get settled by itself and if all is not very very bad, then effect will be not as critical as it would be if USDA would drop a bomb in June report. So, those that expect some tragic numbers to be officially declared, have to ask themselves carefully who has to do it ??? :) :) :)
Thus, the reduction as official number(s) will not be admitted all at once, it will be a process with a lot of rumors and speculations. But science, the one believes it or not, says very clear that 25/26 crop will be affected. Degree depends on many factors, still unknown, but vs would be normal OFF crop (and globally :)) - it will be smaller, that's what science says. It is hard to screw the science :)...
What comes out of all that ? That, as stubborn danish woman Maja said, every level will not be given up easy, and unless some big disaster will heat - it will be fight and retest. Until now 200 was defeated and now it will be very meaningful if any retest will stop on 220 - 230 but not 200... That will mean that market came to a conclusion that until huge crops became confirmed reality :), 200 level is a new base. From which, if something will strike hard, the spike will go :). Besides, now any risk factor will be considered with a multiplier ...
Maja tweeted, that Oaxaca coffee officials expect loss between 30 and 60%. People do not drop 30 - 60% just out of conspiracy :)... And stations data confirms the temps... Same applies to Brazil :).
Robusta is green. Small hint to Arabica traders 😁
Which are the actual contract conditions?
After all, coffee isn't gold....
it was my question too, and coffee is not gold because we can produce it… depending on the weather
Time doesn't matter, it's just that when the governments of various countries burden the pores, people won't drink it anymore. According to every economic law, farmers will have to bring down prices
At some point everything will go somewhere :), but predictions or projections make sense when they are targeting specific time frame. Otherwise, while proven being correct, they (predictions) worst nothing. Everybody was laughing at emotional danish woman Maja at the time and recently, however til now she is the one who was correct. :) But not those, promising/expecting 80-100mb and coffee at $1. :)
BRAZIL'S 2024/25 COFFEE PRODUCTION FORECAST REVISED DOWN TO 66.04 MLN BAGS FROM 70.37 MLN INITIALLY ESTIMATED - SAFRAS & MERCADO
nevermind i am out with my sell :) gl buyers
Could you share the source/URL? I've just searched Google and only found your post here😀。Thank you.
Could you share your source/URL? I've searched Google and only found your post here😀。Thank you.
h4 chart looks like beggining of 20 dollar drop
nice call my stops taken out 236
True. When everyone is talking in TV about higher prices at least intermediate top is in.
Today is Friday, right? Wait for Monday.
Multinational food giant Nestlé says it has developed a new high-yielding coffee variety called Star 4, while targeting the world’s largest coffee-producing market, Brazil. In an announcement of the launch of Star 4 last week, the Swiss company said the cultivar has demonstrated relatively high production yields and overall resiliency to pests and disease. The company went a step further to suggest that those factors represent a sustainability win for the green coffee sector as a whole, despite the proprietary nature of the development. “The new variety is characterized by its larger bean size and coffee leaf rust resistance,” Jeroen Dijkman, head of Nestlé’s Institute of Agricultural Sciences, said in the press release. “Our field trials have demonstrated that, using similar inputs, the yields of Star 4 are substantially higher than the two most used Brazilian local varieties, which reduces its carbon footprint.”
Nestle produces nespresso's entire coffee line, instant coffee mixes, and most of the shelf for starbucks...... I would say they know quite a bit about the industry and the crops. They have the capital and ventured interest in this type of thing.
Nestle is a Swiss multinational food and drink processing conglomerate corporation headquartered in Vevey, Switzerland. It has been the largest publicly held food company in the world, measured by revenue and other metrics, since 2014.
They also sell the water. But bottled;)
The assumption that the weather for the 25/26 crop will be supportive of good yields is based on what? Each successive month is record hot. Summer is raging in Europe. The heat is also at a record high in much of the continent. Brazil has winter and temperatures in the coffee regions are more like summer.
This assumption is based on nothing currently, as 2025 crop depends on 2024 development as 2024 depended om 2023. By science and historical precedents, 2025 will show a reduction vs would be normal. The question is what will be reduction ? If the weather somehow will be ideal - reduction will be smaller, if the weather will be not cooperative - reduction will be bigger. But ideal weather is very highly unlikely. :):):)
First official admittance of the drop should be seen in Sep, when CONAB will come out with its numbers. USDA is only in Dec... :):):)
250
added another long...trailing stops to 271/276
tomorrow it will be more than 150
250
235
on its way to 300 c/lb!
not before it goes to 238 and let us go together to 300
Bags of coffee have begun to disappear from ICE's inventory again.
20k less from top.
Problems with containers in Ports of Brazil.
this a joke?
almost there, 238 to start long position. It has to come today or tomorrow
255
Dear friends from Brazil, I have a question. Do you always have 30C heat in the winter? I see that the whole next week is supposed to be like that in Machado.
If to believe data set from 1991 - 2021 for Montes Claros, for example, max temps have been recorded: May - 27C, June - 26.1C, July -26.1C, August - 27.7C, Sep - 30C, Oct - 30.5C (highest). Uberlandia: May - 25.9C, June - 25.5C, July - 25.7C, August - 27.9C, Sep - 29.9C, Oct - 29.8C. Data based on stations.
Closest station to Montes Claros - about 12km, Uberlandia - about 15, at the farms around data may vary, etc. But anomalies are never good for coffee. Never increase the yield.
Where are you from?
A major Vietnamese bank and the International Finance Corporation (IFC) have collaborated to provide $150 million in supply chain financing for coffee-exporting companies in Vietnam.
150 million dolars dont solve any problem at all
Slow Stochastic on monthly started getting into overbought section. All previous meaningful tops happened on really overbought monthly stochastic - we're not there yet... :). Last 3 meaningful tops in 2011, 2014, 2022 happened not not on just really overbought stochastic but diverged (higher top on lower indicator value) - we're not there either. :) When 24/25 drop will be assumed (in numbers), all eyes will be on 25/26 crop, what means another 8 - 12 months of waiting. A normal cycle for stoch staying in overbought territory would be 6 - 8 months, so it also correlates. If history and science are any guide (and current rumors/developments also:)) - 25/26 will be affected without a doubt. But as the hope always exists, many will hope and the clarity will be revealed around start of Brazilian harvest. Until then it's gonna be a lot of fun :). If to average just Brazilian rumors and to extrapolate onto affected origins (same issue !!!), roughly 20mb of global reduction is just a result of simple math.
There is one more important thing possibly :) to consider: until yesterday :) coffee world was living in the paradigm that Brazil would make it if not next but the next after the next year. As we all are able to see, from 2020 this paradigm doesn't work that well... After 24/25 drop will be numbered, we may start seeing change in the paradigm: instead of believing in 300k ha or 20mb of more beans added next year, a lot of players may start believing in a stagnation period for some time (what is actually very often the case for many industries and on objective basis :)) and so, any negative production news will be creating effect bigger than previously: the market will be more biased to the upside in general than in previous years. :)
In home consumption on 20gm/cup (Kenan's example) for 340gm pack makes 17 cups. On average price $8 a pack for regular 100% arabica (currently in USA), one cup comes roughly to 50c. On capsules basis, roughly, it is $1 a cup. Would anybody stop drinking coffee at home ? Nope. As Short Dude mentioned and it is a common knowledge for years, price in coffee shop is not a direct function of price of bag of coffee, but of many factors as rent (tax if owned), labor, coffee, electricity, water, waste, desired profit margin, etc. But all stores, not just coffee shops, are in the same situation more or less, so it is not that just only coffee gets affected and so it is so visible and annoying. Nope, it is not. So, coffee increase goes hand in hand with other increases and gets absorbed in the same way. Yes, after some levels rationing usually starts until market gets used to it or normalizes, but we all have to understand that 20% increase in retail for $3.0 cup is ... just 60c at the same time in absolute value, besides it supports desired life style. Coffee is a strong culture and amazing natural booster and, as last studies have shown, also an antidepressant :). This last component alone may have much higher value in coming years :) :) :) .
Vietnam export started decreasing from April: April lower than March, May lower than April, June lower than May. This points to some existing issue and makes many nervous and confused, as it doesn't correlate with USDA numbers. As soon as ES drop will be considered, Vietnam will be assumed. Super El Nino in 15/16 reduced the crop in ES for 24%, and big reduction (USDA) was assumed for several years in a raw. Same El Nino reduced Vietnam production for roughly 3mb but it recovered quickly. This time the affect was much worse than in 15/16 for Vietnam. 20% of possible reduction in Vietnam would mark 5.8mb in USDA terms, would make final crop numbers 23.2mb, would explain drop in export and would be in tact with Volcafe and Vietnam last internal projection. More or less 5mb in current circumstances doesn't look like unbelievable figure. :)
Attention on the shoulder head shoulder being constructed on the 1 hour time frame, shorts can be added on 241,10
I would like to see Mr Farouts face now and ask him about new 300k hectares of coffee plantations. I guess Antifreze is also missed in this group... at one point everyone leaves this group...I guess we get fed up...
All pessimists. Coincidence!
300k ha is quite a lot of land ! It makes sense to look at 100 - 200ha farm to understand what it is in terms of infrastructure that has to be built to support the functioning of the farm and how big it is when the one looks from one side to another. 300k ha is ... roughly 1/2 of ALL Vietnam coffee park. Just in case... :)
Report: EU Officials Not Inclined to Delay EUDR Enforcement EU Officials Not Inclined to Delay EUDR Enforcement A letter obtained by the news agency Reuters suggests that EU officials are not inclined to delay implementation of new EU deforestation-free rules (EUDR), despite calls from some industry groups, including a consortium of large European coffee roasters.
So what did I say !
Bullish
Would actually be neutral to bearish…
profit booked have nice weekend guys
What is the situation in Brazil today? The soil is at its lowest moisture content in 7-8 years, as rainfall has been below average for many months while temperatures have been higher, which has increased evaporation. Long-term forecasters are predicting no rain for the next 45 days. What should the weather be like so that the next offseason does not lose potential further? And as we know, some of the potential is already lost. Heavy rains are inadvisable until September, they can cause premature flowering, which will be lost during the dry season. Ideally, a few drops of rain should fall every few days to raise the soil moisture a little, but not cause flowering. In September, abundant and persistent rains should come to cause even flowering, which will not be lost, and raise the record low soil moisture. Is this possible? Of course it is. By going short you are betting that this is what the weather will be like. 😁😁😁
My shorts 258 lookong good :)
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