ICE US Coffee C Futures - May 26 (KCc6)

COT latest numbers. Apparently coffee does not interest too much or It Is considered too risky to play longo?

Coffee Prices Set to Drop Sharply – Here’s Why The coffee market is facing strong bearish pressure, and all signs point toward a significant price decline in the coming weeks. Key factors include: 1. Favorable Weather and Strong Harvests in Brazil Growing conditions in Brazil – especially in Minas Gerais – have been nearly ideal. Forecasts for the 2024/25 arabica crop are increasingly optimistic. A surge in supply is on the horizon, and the market is starting to price that in. 2. Strengthening Brazilian Real The appreciation of the Brazilian real reduces the urgency for producers to sell coffee on the export market. With fewer aggressive sellers, speculative momentum is shifting to the downside. 3. Weaker Demand from Key Markets Consumption growth in major Asian markets, particularly China, is slowing. Combined with macroeconomic headwinds, this is dampening global demand expectations. 4. Technical Correction in Progress After the rally earlier this year, a correction was overdue. Profit-taking is intensifying, and the charts point to further downside ahead. ⸻ Conclusion: Unless we see a major shift in fundamentals, coffee prices are likely to fall sharply. The market is repositioning fast – watch support

May be one more indication of cooling phase getting started: Crops worth hundreds of millions of dollars have been damaged across Turkey as severe frost hit the country during a three-day cold spell from April 10 to 12, 2025. Farmers across the country applied desperate measures such as lighting fires around the crops to save them and avoid further losses. Authorities are describing this as one of the most severe agricultural frosts in Turkey’s recent history.

soon again at 250, like the end of last year

Nice hair cut in weakly & monthly;)

FND OI May25 vanished

If coffee can sell down to 372 to 374 overnight trade next early morning, looking to buy on day trade with tight sell stop.

Technicals. Can coffee sell tomorrow on profit taking after the rally before the long weekend and then buy back before the close?? Possible day trading opportunity depending on the action.

Difficult to put some comments on videogames instead of a structured market

# Analysts at Safras & Mercado reported yesterday that Brazilian coffee growers sold about 14% of their total estimated production of 65 million bags from July 2025 to June 2026, combined with Conilon Robusta and Natural Arabica coffee, for next year. This crop estimate is marginally higher than the industry median forecast, which is set pre-harvest at 62.50 million bags, and within the context of Brazil’s estimated domestic consumption of 22 million bags and estimated export demand of 45 million bags, it will be necessary to continue to feed demand from the domestic and foreign coffee consumer market. Sales activity for this new crop is seen slightly lower than the 25% sold at the same time, when compared to the five-year average. It is fair to say that producers are well-financed and remain hesitant to fully engage in futures activity, releasing coffee at a moderate pace ahead of the upcoming new crop. The prevailing volatility on the New York Futures Exchange, coupled with the inverted market structure, will likely add some caution and risk aversion to buyers, who will be hesitant to enter the physical market too early, given the upcoming new Brazilian crop and the potential continued market volatility as we head into the traditionally cooler winter months. The shift in the futures market landscape, in turn, has provided some opportunities for commercial buyers to participate at lower prices, seeking protection ahead of the traditionally cooler summer months. The US-based National Coffee Association (NCA) has released its latest Coffee Data Trends Report, in which they report that information extrapolated from the relatively small sample of respondents indicates that, on average, 66% of Americans surveyed indicated that they had a cup of coffee in the previous day; This figure is an improvement from the 65% reported in its 2024 report. The report further illustrates a decline in out-of-home consumer behavior, which is indicative of the tighter inflationary economic backdrop; coffee consumption in out-of-home locations has declined by 2% over the past 5 years, reporting that 16% of coffee drinkers consumed at least one cup of coffee in an out-of-home location in the past day. While in-home consumption continues to grow and remains the preferred location for coffee consumption in the US, the report states that 71% of all brewed coffee is consumed at home, an increase of 8% over the past 5 years. The uncertainty that has developed during the last round of trade discussions regarding intermittent tariffs and, at present, the overall 10% increase that is expected to be implemented within 90 days, is being discussed intensively with the US, with domestic lobbies pushing for zero tariffs to be implemented on coffee imports to supply this important sector of the US economy, which is also the largest coffee consumer in the world.

What a boring play. Positioning arbitrage and prompt to sell market when Brazilian reality comes to Town.

Keep in mind: 16-04-2024 inventory: 624K, pending 66k Price: $231,55 16-04-2025 inventory: 790k, pending 92k, Price: $369,40

The danger the futures market is ultimately playing with at this point is more uncertainty. The confidence that weather and underlying drivers will revert back to norm is evaporating.

Brazil record export last five years ! Well does smart.heads must have lab growed coffee already. Wow, brave brazilian scientists :))))

No drought and heatness anymore ? How come? Global warming ended ?

Reuters Safra & Mercado Arabica abt 40 million bags (+ 1,75 from previous assessment). Conillon range 25 tò 26 million bags ( + 0,9/1,9 million vs previous)

Looks like 300 will be tested soon. Enjoy.

If to believe the media in relation to containers bookings :), there is one sure thing that can't be blamed for lower export: absence of available containers. Now it should be plenty... :):):)

up

Looking at this coffee chart, bullish. Will look tomorrow morning around 8am central. Hoping to buy a dip around pit session 8am central on a day trade. If rally tomorrow morning, just buy in long on any dip

I look at the coffee chart and the bottom is in, going higher.

Gap not closed so far. It does`t matter :D Tons of them to close downside.

robusta very strong today

No way Only options and arbitrage count. Anyhow COT not encuoraging the longs side

400 this week or next?