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ICE US Coffee C Futures - Dec 25 (KCc6)

ICE
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KCDerivedUSD
KCc1ICEUSD
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237.45
-9.15(-3.71%)
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US Coffee C Futures Discussions

It seems that the market needs to see it to believe it. Just look at the high maximum temperature during the main flowering period after 4 months of drought. It is quite certain that we lost leaves, roots and even some area in the coffee. But it is true that no one knows exactly how much!
Rodolpho, Do you see 2025 crop as OFF crop in relation to A ? If yes - how do you see it, in relation to 2024 crop, percentage wise ?
KC hit 250 level and this is perfectly normal, as CONAB did not reveal something new - it just officially :) confirmed what rumors and other forecasters have been saying for a while and what was built into the price as otherwise price would not touch 270 level. Simple look at 50 year monthly chart shows that hype about panic is very premature. 65mb as average new number :) is not 50mb, etc. So, sell the news worked out but the main question is not to hit or break 250 level and to close the gap, but if KC will manage to break 200 on the downside or it will not. For the big spikes catalyst is always needed and in 2021 it was frost after the drought, but again, real spike happened on the frost but not the drought. Assuming all this and the current price, the one has to ask himself a simple question: what, just 5mb reduction pushed the price from 140 level to 270 level ? Or 250 level, etc - it is not that important. What is important, that in relation to Brazil price is where it is on nothing, if to follow the concept and terminology of those who does not believe into the weather issues, etc. The one may have any concept, etc, the only problem is there was no even one historical precedent, proving such a concept. On the other side, there were many, proving the opposite :) concept. Those, that think that price of 250 on kinda 65mb :) crop is normal, should look at the long term chart :) more carefully :). This why many producers refer to that price in the end of the harvest (of about :) 65mb) as a very surprising :).
Rains are not equal record crop. 2023 was record OFF A crop (USDA) so, 2025 should repeat it or overcome. Science points it is impossible, as coffee is still a tree and each farmer still has a budget and his goal is money but not records by any means :).
CNBC just mentioned the big move in coffee. You know that is the kiss of death. They did the same thing at the peak in cocoa.
180
Maja Wallengren @SpillingTheBean: MARKET WATCH #KC: Arabica #coffee in new session of crazy 14-15c/lb volatility - as predicted since over 1 month ago - but fascinatingly active Dec is ABOVE this week's 250 target at $2.5165 and it's not going to be long before the market realizes that whatever rains MAY come to Brazil it's MUCH TOO LATE to recover IRREVERSIBLE major losses to 2025 flowering and even if Conab "only" lowered the 2024 figure by a little over 4M it still does NOT mean that a 4th CONSECUTIVE small crop of 54.79M is good - it's falling MASSIVELY short of the 60-66M min needed from Brazil and is aiding GROWING SUPPLY DEFICIT currently at min 22-24M alone for 2024-25 world crop AND set to expand even more in 2025-26 when LAST remaining importing stocks will be gone!!
All you bulls always quote this Maja and she is always so pesimistic. I even went to check out her posts and she was posting pictures of frozen coffee plants and was saying how devastating frost we had and all plants will die and it turned out to be fake. Talk about manipulation and speculation.
copy cocoa
copy trend cocoa
Towards 300, seems postponed.
Like september rains.
What is the name of the season in which we have flowers ? until 21 sept is winter in Brazil.
The panic sale is yet to come. Today is just the beginning, my friend :)
So guys you can buy now . 2-3 points till close at least .
Covered . I said to Brasilian guys Shorty dude anf BrunOooo that I all make robusta from arabica . Noone wants to pay such price .
Trying to undertand why no rains, low air humidity during the blooming is making the price go down. Just the temperature super hight during the blooming can frustrate a crop.
A lot of news about rain in some areas of Minas Gerais, coming on a Friday, was to be expected. We'll see on Monday.
What weather models are showing rain? Except for the GFS, none show serious rainfall. Ecwmf meteoblue icon show virtually no rain.
No forecasts but Bruno commented here that it rained in Cerrado Mineiro, South of Minas Gerais there was rain in small areas (low volume, but it did happen).
Good Morning Vietnam!
why down if still no rain or barely any rain.. instead of trying to optimize few dollars, maybe best to understand the general market dynamics and overall trends.. I will no longer post here.. except to rub it in after I close my positions
what is your tp?
Markets always peak on good news and bottom on bad news
What's the bad news?
Hello everyone. To those who believed me a few days ago that the price would go down and went short, congratulations on your profit. I hope you didn't listen to the specialists eg ShortDude etc. There are many here who write and think a lot and know nothing at all! Have a nice weekend.
I've been saying price is pumped for a long time now. I've read that most positions on coffee are held by investment funds and that one of them closed its position, imagine all of them doing it.
Abt. 16k less @ICE within 2 days... 8,8k rejected, 3.59 accepted. Pending only 6k.
Spreads strong and rising today despite price drop.
Just going for 252 gap on daily ;)
No more 260 Le.
Sorry -7.00
A hangover and trouble with counting? 🤣
Why is it in preopening -5.00 usc ?
Covered and went long 260. for 262
Of course. I had no doubt.
🤣 sorry will be better next time. Free secret advice . In 5 min you can go long .
free advice ...secret ( if admin allow ) you can buy in 2 min . Pssssst
Conab confirmed the weather issues and reduction vs expected about 7% and this reduction is completely in tact with the other main forecasters, that previously reduced 2024 crop from roughly 70mb to 64-66mb. Assuming CONAB is balanced :) (as almost all main forecasters are as well), many players will view the actual reduction around 10% (7% - 10%-15%), what in USDA terms will translate into 70mb - 10% = 63mb and the range of 60 - 65mb. Everybody is free to consider what it means for the market in current situation but this is not all: now, officially, all other origins, that suffered (Vietnam including:)) will be considered revised for roughly same 10% at least :). At least, because many origins are not comparable to Brazil in terms of :) cultural practices and so on...
Very good point. With the next price spike, Bruno will just watch and miss the grains sold.
Bruno is a producer and a trader, they are two different things. A good manager does not mix his businesses and he sold his production but will not lose the margins of his business in the commercialization. Even if it does not rain, there will always be coffee, the question is the value to be paid. There will always be producers who sold their production, producers who stockpile and others who make sales in installments, in the same way that there are traders who bet on a rise and others on a fall.
B r u n o is a producer and a trader, they are two different things. A good manager does not mix his businesses and he sold his production but will not lose the margins of his business in the commercialization. Even if it does not rain, there will always be coffee, the question is the value to be paid. There will always be producers who sold their production, producers who stockpile and others who make sales in installments, in the same way that there are traders who bet on a rise and others on a fall.
Andradas/SP it rained today!! Rodrigo is happy
How much? 10mm? 5mm? 1mm?
Yes, less than 5mm. It is better to have smaller volumes at the beginning because with the extreme heat there is a high chance of hail. Some high areas had hail yesterday here. As the old saying goes: "one rain calls for another".
Wrong, walking through the plantations this morning I see that the rain was very uneven, some neighborhoods had a large volume of water with hail, some barely erased the dust. The rain at a distance of 12 kilometers varied from less than 10 to 1 mm.
Now sold and shorted again
Maja Wallengren @SpillingTheBean · Maja Wallengren: *BREAKING #KC: Brazil's Conab lowers Arabica #coffee figure to 39.6M from previous figure of 42.1M bags and Robusta to 15.2M bags from previous figure of 16.7M in the 2024 harvest as multiple weather disasters cause major losses to now completed 2024 harvest!!
SAO PAULO, Sept 19 (Reuters) -Brazil's coffee production in 2024 is seen at 54.79 million 60-kg bags, national food supply agency Conab said on Thursday, well below the 58.81 million it forecast in May and down 0.5% from the previous year. Adverse weather conditions have affected key crop development stages, Conab said.
Do you have the link to that report? I can’t find it.
Conab website would be the best source.
Big boss 🇺🇸said enough .
Covered and went long
...
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