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ICE US Coffee C Futures - Jul 24 (KCc2)

ICE
Symbol
Exchange
Currency
KCDerivedUSD
KCc1ICEUSD
KCc2ICEUSD
KCc3ICEUSD
KCc4ICEUSD
KCc5ICEUSD
KCc6ICEUSD
KCc7ICEUSD
Currency in USD
Disclaimer
221.45
-6.20(-2.72%)
Delayed Data

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

time to buy some coffee
220.oo game over
Armageddon got subdued, at least for now :).
Not touching Brazil, all origins were affected by temps: Africa, Vietnam, India, Indonesia, CA, Mexico, Islands... Nobody knows yet if it affected the crops and if - to what extent, but anomalies were detected :). Move from Oct 2023 low to 200 level could be considered technical and range bound, but the move from 180 level to 250 level - unlikely :)... Looking at monthly, the only similarities I (personally) was able to detect - 1996/1997. In both cases initial low have been made in Jans (96 and 2023) and advances continued from Octs (96 and 23). It may not mean much at all but still :)...
june 1997 2.63
Updated prediction by NOAA for solar cycle 25 peak pointed to the period between Jan and Oct 2024 (previous prediction was pointing to 2025). Real cooling, related to GSM cycle, supposed :) to start after current cycle 25 will pass its peak, and La Nina is expected to arrive around June...
what is going on?
Armagedon
If it follows cocoa patterns u can expect tremendous gains…check the weather if it was crops friendly in the producing countries like brazil so u will have better picture.. good luck
Do we expect coffee prices to hike in the coming weeks? if so, by how much?
Ahhh, to have a crystal ball :-)
It seems like cocoa processing in North America went up in a first quarter: plants processed 3.6% more vs first quarter of previous year (open sources info :)). Main point is not it grew up but it didn't fall as many expected due to price... Strong El Nino was usually damaging for Vietnam coffee crop and it seems, it happened again. But the one has to ask himself a simple question: if just some :) damaging weather, not yet (if at all) officially fully confirmed, is able to produce the move roughly equal to a move, justified by real multiple, fully confirmed frost in Brazil, is it really just weather in Vietnam or it may be something more to it ? Because if there is :), current move has a chance to continue (including pull backs), at first, toward 290 area and then who knows ... :) As GCA doesn't publish and current move up happened on superb Brazilian export, CONAB (till previous report) hasn't found anything suspicious and most important USDA reports, related to R are coming out in May as next CONAB report and ECF stocks report also coming in May (Brazil in June), weather continues to impress here and there, KC may still have about 1.5 months to entertain the market... :). I don't know if JD completed any field trips recently, but as she has very very long and extensive experience, unlikely she would mention the possibility of lighter yields for current Brazilian crop without any data in her hands... :) Also, Stoch on weekly and monthly charts didn't produce sell signal yet. All may change quickly of course, as KC has life its own :)... NOT an agitation to do anything !!! :)
As Vietnam is very important origin, most traders ask themselves 3 main questions: 1) Will USDA confirm, decrease or increase previously stated reduction (3.8mb) ? 2) What export of R USDA will project for 24/25 season ? 3) Will USDA come to a conclusion that current drought will affect to the downsize 24/25 harvest and if it will, to which degree ? In May we should get this info. As MGom once said :), 3.8mb -- roughly 4mb -- may not look huge for Vietnam specifically, but for the comparison purposes it is about ALL Mexican production. If you will combine possible Vietnam, Indonesia, India production problems in relation to record temps (not lost crops :) but just possible combined reduction and possible (!) consequences for next crop), the figure may be quite impressive. A specially, if you would assume retail consumption global growth at rate of 1.75 percent on annual basis... 1.75percent annual growth, as example, is nothing out of the range and this figure (1.5 - 2percent) correlates well with the growth in many other product groups, etc... It is mostly related to the population and income growth and the coffee culture becoming a fashion within countries where it was not strong historically...
Superb export ex-Brazil post harvest 2023 may tell whatever :), but first of all, it tells that Brazil has coffee to export and consumption is doing just fine, otherwise export wouldn't be that great. Decreased export can be also explained by many reasons, but besides conspiracy and greedy producers :), it may mean that production/stocks are not that high and so, producers may allow themselves to be thrifty for some time... :) :) :)
For instance, I saw some comments from Indian producers (Karnataka), complaining about the high temps and affected crop. I have no idea if it's true or not and if it is - to what degree, but high temps have been confirmed by weather stations, services, etc. Thus, at first and personally, I do expect some reduction to be stated and then everything else :). Reduction can be meaningful or not - it remains to be seen, but again, the temps were/are reality, not guesses and reduction would be inline with normal reaction of tree, etc... Most origins are not that technically/technologically advanced as Brazil and so, I would assume that in a bad scenario, effect would be of higher degree... There were rumors of possible quality issues in Brazil, how meaningful it is or will be :), if at all - remains to be seen, but weather was not perfect to provide superb crop... Weather could be manually :) corrected by some producers but for sure, not by all of them... :) :) :)
Co dalej będzie? Jak myślicie?
since I stopped drinking coffee in January, my sleep quality drastically improved.. you should try it
Sam, is this comment a low key, subtle way of influencing the market? 😂
In Asia it should become a true fashion, then it blows usually... Then it gets normalized and follows trend line. Coffee shops continue expanding in Vietnam, but it was like this 20 years ago... China may be close to that explosion, nobody knows... :)
**** It was not like this 20 years ago...
Two recent interesting observations: 1) the idea, that El Nino managed to produce (could produce :) :) :) ) some damage to crop in Vietnam got absorbed by the market; 2) Judy Ganes, who was not bullish recently :), mentioned that there are worries that processing yields for current Brazilian crop might come in light too; 3) European cocoa grinding fell only 2.2% despite rocketed prices (same JD mentioned that it could be the result of some processors to lock in as much physical supplies as they can :).
Temps continue breaking records, abnormal temps (for this period of time) are expected in Central Brazil. Expected doesn't mean materialized but means possible risk looking forward. Record temps in Africa, India, Asia..., Mexico, CA... Not meaning it will wipe out the crop (it will not !!!) but lighter yield :) can be produced in some areas :)...
No frost but there was really difficult news out of Vietnam.
(Reuters) "The total climate cycle involving the two phenomena and the neutral phase usually takes between two and seven years, but experts stated that the transition period is getting shorter and shorter"
Maya a.k.a Big John is back... let's see what she's got to say
Gap closed.
According to the latest forecast, the next 45 days without rain.
they cant predict weather from day to day, you expect them to predict it a month a head?
also, from may-sept its harvest season, meaning dry weather isnt a bad thing for production.
As usual at this time
Maybe was not a Shooting star but could be now Dark Cover Cloud ? Any other ideas ?
Today it can go up. Im here again maby taking calls lets se. 25k already booked profits on short herw.
what is the reason for the upper circuit of coffee price
+35% in 29 days
The reason??? Low stocks everywhere
is ot why the market is up?
hiii
You know what is happening
bear trap?
Take profit, maybe?
Both
250 can be easly reached, no worry. 300 will be take time 2weeks
while your at it lets kill the market
I offer Arabiga Shg Organic Honduran coffee
Where is Sam Houston?
here... slowly adding
Those are some names! And I think there was another Sam too…
great
Bulls in control
In general or by those funny lines you are looking at that mean nothing?
Bulls destroy
250 soon then 300
5,000!
crazy
I was joking. No one knows…
This is insane
True, there are many factors, but weather is the main one. The market is tight, all it takes is another failed coffee crop in Brazil and there will be big trouble. And the weather forecast predicts just that - trouble.
harvest season is a foot in some of these nations, its not weather related, its "speculation".
Explain to us, please.
Agricultural News: "Consumption of soluble coffee in Brazil reached 5,235 tons in the first quarter of 2024, a volume that implies growth of 5.3% compared to the 4,970 tons consumed from January to the end of March last year. The data is part statistical report from the Brazilian Industry Association of the sector, Abics."
300 soon!
...
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