Compiled here, all relevant comments and discussions regarding US Coffee C Futures. Please note that all comments included here have met Investing.com's Comment Guidelines.
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(28871)
KC..Until 2 or 3hrs is +ve when going to close the market 90% it will Reach -ve….very bad movement ;(
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?????can you clarify?
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Salvatore Grimaldii mean when coffee market is open time is up trend, and evening close time mostly days go down also…!!there is no good movement from last 1nd haf month…
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Everyday new coffee added to pending queue on ICE.
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It seems like it is an issue of who can you trust? In this New Woke up world I have learned to trust no one!
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Cecafe bearish too. They still have enough coffee to export.
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from what I've read some are expecting a run up prior to Dec. exp... similar to Sept.
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Everyone looks scared to buy lol
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Can't blame them
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Thats a part of their game .
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Ashraf Abubakeryes but a decent bounce was more than expected with weak DXY
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ECF -153K bags in out22
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What is EFC?
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*ECF?
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It seems that Colombia is finally out of stocks. Export is down significantly. Time for Brazil?
Rodrigo Fariawhat do we see after this break? 🤔 eye's on 175.00
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There has really been a very sharp drop in production over the last 4 years due to excessively rainy weather and FNC doesn't want to talk about it. Due to the rise in prices this year almost no one has renewed their coffee plantations in the hope of picking more coffee but the weather did not help and there was no such production. This will imply an even stronger drop in production in the future due to aging trees.
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Keity. She also wanted to know. I'm just a coffee grower and the market doesn't always follow the fundamentals.
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Month of december: export brazil -23.3%. ICE stock +28k, fail bags 13,5k (32%)
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and price ?
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Price stable for the moment, also last cot investors reduce short od 2.2k. So different effects that has been balanced.
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Kc still under bears ?? Or this weak have any higher?
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It should bounce higher but i m not a wizard lol
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Now, let's look at Maja in comparison to Velez. I'll take only her R view to be short. She claims that she traveled through main R areas in ES and observed different problems, affecting 2023 crop. She names the problems and explains the cause-effect chain, etc. What she says corresponds with weather events, confirmed in the area. Having established relations in Brazil and some reputation, built from zero within 20 years, highly unlikely she'll is a lier :). But she is emotional and is known for exaggeration. Well, she said she expects R to be down in ES about 30% in 2023 - I'll take it as 15% to be conservative. While she may be right about much higher figure (30%), 15% feels worth of attention. And besides she trully travelled all this distance and saw it with her own eyes, she has some knowledge of the subject. Thus, to me her estimate looks much more credible that Velez's comments (basing on pure common sense). 15% of 23mb (or take any figure you want) is 3.45 mb. We'll see next week if market will forget Velez's comments and will cheer up Maja!
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Either the Brazilians are magicians or we must eventually see a decline in export numbers. It's about time. There is still the option that all these calculations are worthless ;)
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Did read Velez's comments (by Reuters :)). Velez said that Brazil may produce between 55 and 65 mb in 2023, and that may be :) the cycle of higher prices is coming to an end. Not guessing on his goals in relation to the statement, few things come to mind almost immediately and amaze, assuming that Velez was for years high rank official at FNC and supposes :) to be informed much better than many others:
1) Spread is 10mb = roughly 18%, if to go from 55 to 65mb. If to move from mb to ha, needed to produce another 10mb, it's quite an ... area. In other words, he was simply guessing, looking at the starts, or FNC has no any credible information and/or instrument to use for more practical forecast. Hard to believe.... 2) If to consider his lower figure (which is equal Maja's upper figure), that figure of 55mb doesn't cover Brazilian annual export (about 40mb) plus domestic (roasters based) consumption of 22mb (62mb in total, it leaves no new stocks and requires 7mb from pre-existing stocks to reach 62mb). How the one comes to a conclusion that 62mb, for instance, in such a context translates into low prices and and end of the cycle, it a serious question, indeed. :)
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That's not forecasting, that's pure guesswork. From behind my desk, I might as well throw random numbers and be as accurate as he is.
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ShortDude ShortDude Totally agree. He doesn't even know what the real production in Colombia is. that's why he had to resign.
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Semeru started erupting in Java, Indonesia. Semeru is located in eastern part of Java, not that far away from Java coffee areas. Nothing extra special for now... but confirms the cycle.
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Yesterdays drop becouse concern the economy might slip into recession and curb coffee demand. Just wondering what will be today excuse after very good nfp report ?
And, what do u think about the sustained 'backwardation' (cash price now 170.43, all futures price less!)?
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Everyone is saying something different my broker publish this Gold retreated to $1,795 while silver jumped to $23.00, its highest since May 2022 amid a weaker dollar. Who to brelieve !!!!!!
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Manipulators doing this again
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really bad sign its crashing with a weak US$
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Maks Mars158 if it won’t hold better close any long lol
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After completing her trip, Maja made her forecast for 2023. For those (if there were some people :)), expecting very bullish call, her call, probably should be named a dissapointment. Stating that she traveled through roughly 85% of R and roughly 85% of A areas, she gave the range 50 - 56mb (A+R) combined for 2023 crop. Assuming, that she expects quite lower R crop in ES, border figires can be roughly viewed as: 50mb as 32mb of A + 18mb of R and 56mb as 36mb of A and 20mb of R. For those, who believes that 2022 was about 60mb :) :) :), 56b for 2023 would be nothing strange at all.
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"I belive in miracles... 🎼🎶" :)
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X-Mass is coming ! :)
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Cecafe 3.7mln certs for November finally. Good number a bit smaller than October 3.8mln certs.
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ICE 1.05mln combined
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yestarday were 1.056.987 bags and UP today for 1..058.047 bags
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Unfortunately if you go to the ICE stock and ask 1M bags they will tell you that up today only 600 k are available.anyway also today 38% of failing rate....top new coffee!!!
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Do not forget that the market and future
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ICE stocks and CECAFE export and contango. Nothing is bullish.
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Ok so if you go to cocoa you will find nothing bullish but it is going up ....
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+7.7 k bags from Brazil and Hondas +5.7k bags. Please note that the 9.08k bags are new bags, not from come the pending bags.
Maybe a little more. 1 to 2 months. Fundamentals take longer than numbers to figure out.
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For me i'mnot concerned about ice ( half stock respect same time last year) and cecafe export( a little higher in november but cumulated are the same as last year), either the demand quite stable. To say the truth the only concern is new crop and consumption switch from arabica to robusta. For example today price movement And stock are moving in different direction.
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bit less sales now.. plus holiday seasonality.. next one 185 131
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Funny december cintract and cash up march down !they having fun nice game
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buy that dip US$ flush helping commodity bulls lol
If to suppose total annual export of ON cycle 2022 will be roughly 40mb, then it will be inline with 2019 OFF cycle figure of roughly 40.7mb, quite higher then 2018 ON cycle export of roughly 35.6mb and quite below 2020 export number of roughly 44mb.
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All in all, 34mb export of A statiscally is a good number. :)
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*32 M bags, of End Stocks
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And CECAFE still at very good pace with emtpy warehouses :)