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ICE US Coffee C Futures - Jul 24 (KCc2)

Currency in USD

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

It seems like cocoa processing in North America went up in a first quarter: plants processed 3.6% more vs first quarter of previous year (open sources info :)). Main point is not it grew up but it didn't fall as many expected due to price... Strong El Nino was usually damaging for Vietnam coffee crop and it seems, it happened again. But the one has to ask himself a simple question: if just some :) damaging weather, not yet (if at all) officially fully confirmed, is able to produce the move roughly equal to a move, justified by real multiple, fully confirmed frost in Brazil, is it really just weather in Vietnam or it may be something more to it ? Because if there is :), current move has a chance to continue (including pull backs), at first, toward 290 area and then who knows ... :) As GCA doesn't publish and current move up happened on superb Brazilian export, CONAB (till previous report) hasn't found anything suspicious and most important USDA reports, related to R are coming out in May as next CONAB report and ECF stocks report also coming in May (Brazil in June), weather continues to impress here and there, KC may still have about 1.5 months to entertain the market... :). I don't know if JD completed any field trips recently, but as she has very very long and extensive experience, unlikely she would mention the possibility of lighter yields for current Brazilian crop without any data in her hands... :) Also, Stoch on weekly and monthly charts didn't produce sell signal yet. All may change quickly of course, as KC has life its own :)... NOT an agitation to do anything !!! :)
Also important. looking into the future: if current Brazilian crop numbers somehow will not be able to crash the market (we should know in June :)), the mood and narration will get incredible support toward potential upside as officially the trees in Brazil have completed recovery, R expanded, etc - meaning, it should produce real relief for the market...
Have you been to Vietnam to check on new crop?
Co dalej będzie? Jak myślicie?
since I stopped drinking coffee in January, my sleep quality drastically improved.. you should try it
Sam, is this comment a low key, subtle way of influencing the market? 😂
In Asia it should become a true fashion, then it blows usually... Then it gets normalized and follows trend line. Coffee shops continue expanding in Vietnam, but it was like this 20 years ago... China may be close to that explosion, nobody knows... :)
**** It was not like this 20 years ago...
Two recent interesting observations: 1) the idea, that El Nino managed to produce (could produce :) :) :) ) some damage to crop in Vietnam got absorbed by the market; 2) Judy Ganes, who was not bullish recently :), mentioned that there are worries that processing yields for current Brazilian crop might come in light too; 3) European cocoa grinding fell only 2.2% despite rocketed prices (same JD mentioned that it could be the result of some processors to lock in as much physical supplies as they can :).
Temps continue breaking records, abnormal temps (for this period of time) are expected in Central Brazil. Expected doesn't mean materialized but means possible risk looking forward. Record temps in Africa, India, Asia..., Mexico, CA... Not meaning it will wipe out the crop (it will not !!!) but lighter yield :) can be produced in some areas :)...
No frost but there was really difficult news out of Vietnam.
(Reuters) "The total climate cycle involving the two phenomena and the neutral phase usually takes between two and seven years, but experts stated that the transition period is getting shorter and shorter"
Maya a.k.a Big John is back... let's see what she's got to say
Gap closed.
According to the latest forecast, the next 45 days without rain.
they cant predict weather from day to day, you expect them to predict it a month a head?
also, from may-sept its harvest season, meaning dry weather isnt a bad thing for production.
As usual at this time
Maybe was not a Shooting star but could be now Dark Cover Cloud ? Any other ideas ?
Today it can go up. Im here again maby taking calls lets se. 25k already booked profits on short herw.
what is the reason for the upper circuit of coffee price
+35% in 29 days
The reason??? Low stocks everywhere
is ot why the market is up?
You know what is happening
bear trap?
Take profit, maybe?
250 can be easly reached, no worry. 300 will be take time 2weeks
while your at it lets kill the market
I offer Arabiga Shg Organic Honduran coffee
Where is Sam Houston?
here... slowly adding
Those are some names! And I think there was another Sam too…
Bulls in control
In general or by those funny lines you are looking at that mean nothing?
Bulls destroy
250 soon then 300
I was joking. No one knows…
This is insane
True, there are many factors, but weather is the main one. The market is tight, all it takes is another failed coffee crop in Brazil and there will be big trouble. And the weather forecast predicts just that - trouble.
harvest season is a foot in some of these nations, its not weather related, its "speculation".
Explain to us, please.
Agricultural News: "Consumption of soluble coffee in Brazil reached 5,235 tons in the first quarter of 2024, a volume that implies growth of 5.3% compared to the 4,970 tons consumed from January to the end of March last year. The data is part statistical report from the Brazilian Industry Association of the sector, Abics."
300 soon!
fly like a rocket, 300 cents very soon, market is cannibal. Roaster are shorty and very late in the buying scale. Better cover position fast
looks like we're heading to 210.. take it with a grain of salt for now
Does the situation really justify these prices? Anyone care to share some wisdom?
Some producers a few weeks ago made fury locks for 1000 reais, today on the domestic market 1300.
Not really, considering that demand is already down and production will be up even further from pervious years. if anything these prices will dampen consumption even further.
What we said: fly baby fly
Enter long, target 236.
Thx coffe for 25k profit. Now bull oil
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