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ICE US Coffee C Futures - Jul 24 (KCc2)

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216.90 -0.45    -0.21%
12/04 - Closed. Currency in USD ( Disclaimer )
Type:  Commodity
Group:  Agriculture
  • Prev. Close: 216.90
  • Open: 218.35
  • Day's Range: 215.25 - 229.75
US Coffee C 216.90 -0.45 -0.21%

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US Coffee C Futures Discussions

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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 6 hours ago
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Interesting podcast in Ryan Delaney twitter: he's talking to the guy who's dealing with Vietnam (coffee) for ages :) :) :) and so, his view kinda reflects what happens on the ground there... What he said, shortly: 1) he doesn't see a disaster crop in Vietnam; 2) many field trips are done from the main roads while a lot of coffee is grown away from them :) :); 3) coffee culture (consumption) in Vietnam is growing and very well; 4) some producers defaulted in 2023, wanting higher prices so, middlemen stopped buying, now it's stabilizing; 5) whatever coffee comes to the market is getting bought quickly; 6) average age of farmers is high and labor (price wise) becomes an issue like in many other origins; 7) he doesn't see Vietnamese crop (realistically) higher then 35mb in the nearest future. USDA report, covering Vietnam coming in the end of May, then Brazil is coming in June. Both will have double importance in this year :) :) :).
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 6 hours ago
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In its Nov 2023 semi annual report, USDA lowered Vietnam's 23/24 production for ... 3.8mb and 22/23 production was revised (lowered) to 27.2mb, export for 23/24 was projected as 25mb. All due to weather issues and lower stocks. USDA didn't focus on greedy farmers, etc :) :) :). Harvest in Vietnam usually ends in April, if all is perfect, export should start reflecting it as it was in Brazil post 2023 harvest.
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 6 hours ago
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Temps records continue falling in SA and CA (Costa Rica, Honduras, Guatemala), Mexico, etc in a way never seen before... It's hard to say specifically how and where it will affect production, but previously it was considered that vegetative function of the tree depends on the day/night temperature.
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 41 minutes ago
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Jim Roemer on April 11th underlined (he specializes in weather/commodities moves for ages :)) hot/dry weather issue in Vietnam and also mentioned, that in his opinion (there are more that correlate) La Nina will not come that quickly and El Nino will stay somehow till June or July. If USDA will confirm its initial outlook for Vietnam (R) or somehow will make it lower :) :) :), expected surplus in Brazilian conilon (24 vs 23) will unlikely :) cover reduction in R production in Vietnam and Indonesia and thus, it will not change the equation for R quickly and so, the support for A, that comes from it.
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 26 minutes ago
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In relation to GSM (grand solar minimum) cycle that supposed to last until 2053 or so, its real cooling effect should start (by some scientists :)) after current solar cycle 25 will have its top. This top is projected :) to happen around July (summer:)) 2025 after what global cooling should start revealing itself in a serious :) manner (step by step). Nobody knows until it happened, but high temps may continue till solar cycle 25 peak with possible consequences for some origins and 2025 should be :) OFF crop. (2025 should actually confirm if ON/OFF crop concept is still valid :) or not anymore...)
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 11 minutes ago
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Besides, if to assume that global consumption will grow in 2024 for 1.75% :) (this number is nothing special and mainly illustrates population and income growth) it will mean 3mb more to produce in 24/25. And two more important points: 1) same guy from Ryan Delaney podcast mentioned that China is a sleeping giant when it comes to coffee, if the trend will accelerate, Kathie :) will re-direct more bags towards China (the one who dealt with asian markets knows, that when something becomes really a fashion/trend there, it is usually a blast ! :); 2) demand from cosmetic industry for coffee (derivatives) grows constantly (got it from open sources :)).
Coffee KC
Coffee KC Apr 12, 2024 2:44PM ET
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Watch carefully, today we have seen a typical Shooting Star...fasten your seat belts for a free fall till 145-160. Who survives, will talk abt it.
ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude Apr 12, 2024 2:44PM ET
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This is not crypto market, coffee has fundamentals. Market is tight and weather is not supportive, we are heading to frost season...
Rodrigo Faria
Rodrigo Faria Apr 12, 2024 2:44PM ET
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The chances of la ninha for June are 60%.
M A
M A Apr 12, 2024 12:50PM ET
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who is dumping like this ???
Coffee KC
Coffee KC Apr 12, 2024 12:50PM ET
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Me, myself & I.
kassim fite
kassim fite Apr 12, 2024 12:50PM ET
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Sam Houston
Sam Houston Apr 12, 2024 12:49PM ET
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wow... definitely waiting for the bounce next week
Mac No
Mac No Apr 12, 2024 12:49PM ET
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Starting where?
Sam Houston
Sam Houston Apr 12, 2024 12:49PM ET
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229 and more hopefully
Coffee KC
Coffee KC Apr 12, 2024 12:19PM ET
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Aiming 150 now ! 🤞
ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude Apr 12, 2024 12:11PM ET
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Enough for now?
Erick gallegos
Erick gallegos Apr 12, 2024 12:11PM ET
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How do the spreads look
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Apr 12, 2024 11:33AM ET
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Vote: will R touch 4k today or not ? :) :) :)
coffee arabica
coffee arabica Apr 12, 2024 10:31AM ET
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aiming 250 soon
Sam Houston
Sam Houston Apr 12, 2024 8:12AM ET
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nice.. will start building short position starting end of next week
Serdar Ates
Serdar Ates Apr 12, 2024 8:12AM ET
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Shorts means suicude for ever, if you have tons of money go for it.
Mac No
Mac No Apr 12, 2024 8:12AM ET
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R u watching?
Rodrigo Faria
Rodrigo Faria Apr 12, 2024 6:14AM ET
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Some people today have a stomach ache.
Show previous replies (8)
joaquin cafe
joaquin cafe Apr 12, 2024 6:14AM ET
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Headache
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Apr 12, 2024 6:14AM ET
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When analyzing consumption, the increase in retail price for specific product has to be viewed in relation to (at least): 1) increase for similar/competitive product; 2) increase within important (housing, insurance, health, etc) product/services; 3) its role in providing certain lifestyle; 4) ratio of one to another; 5) increase in income !!! Coffee is the cheapest or one of the cheapest per cup and probably the cheapest way to socialize. People didn't stop drinking beer because of price increase... :)
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Apr 12, 2024 6:14AM ET
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Retail consumption and importers demand should not be viewed under same angle as consumers want a cup of coffee (boost, etc) while importers want to make certain profit, etc.
Rodrigo Faria
Rodrigo Faria Apr 12, 2024 6:14AM ET
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Has the stomach pain gone? :)
Mac No
Mac No Apr 12, 2024 6:14AM ET
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Partialy… need 200$ :)
 
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