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ICE US Coffee C Futures - May 25 (KCc6)

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201.25 0.00    0.00%
- Delayed Data. Currency in USD ( Disclaimer )
Type:  Commodity
Group:  Agriculture
  • Prev. Close: 201.25
  • Open: 209.50
  • Day's Range: 199.55 - 209.65
US Coffee C 201.25 0.00 0.00%

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Nikolay Borisov
Nikolay Borisov 14 hours ago
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On a day frame, we looking for the end of the Up trend at area : 260 - 300 !!!
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Nikolay Borisov
Nikolay Borisov 14 hours ago
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Now, we're at the reversal point ...
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Coffee KC
Coffee KC 17 hours ago
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Someone ready to bet we are at 150 in 15 days from now ?
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 15 hours ago
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I know it sounds like a broken (100 times :)) record :), but assuming all the open info about Vietnam or India, as example, what would be most risk balanced assumption, a specially if we talk about big players ? Probably (my view), to consider that modern practices, cultivars, etc are more efficient and resistant, that rain will help to some extent and so, it's gonna be no devastation :) as they like to say :). But after recorded real issues and for quite some time , it seems logical and correct/safe (potential risk wise) to project some reduction. Not necessarily in a way to built big long immediately :), but to be on alert towards upside. Among all the important (and frankly speaking almost all) origins, it's only Brazil the cheer leader still. Brazil is superpower, provides incredible yields, etc but it is not immune to weather issues as well as we all saw... In a way, that it may be not able to cover efficiently the reduction of all other origins (IF considered !) or it may suffer itself and to have some reduction at the same time or just to be stagnant. Why cocoa catapulted that high and easy ? Not because of the fun boys, but because the catalyst was real and big players were well aware of it as they get good weather forecasts, etc. Then squeeze made its magic :). But initial catalyst was real and so the extent of it - that why the sky was the limit :) :) :). NCEI.NOAA.gov provides a lot of general information about droughts, etc... Anybody can see for himself. Yes, every exact district/farm(s) hard to project, but when the coverage is wide, it's just logical to suppose some damage rather than increase... We'll see it all within May/June :).
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 14 hours ago
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Stone X in its Feb 2024 report, based on the crop tours, projected R production in ES as roughly 16mb. Incaper now says that drop can be up to 30%, etc, estimates about 11mb production. USDA decreased R production for MY15/16 in ES due to high temps and dry spells for roughly 3mb from 13mb (14/15) to 10mb or about 30%. That was the year of Strong El Nino (15/16) also.... 23/24. 16mb Stone X, Feb 2024 - 30% = 11.2mb Incaper (up to), historically, it would not be out of the range. Well, nobody knows what finally will be stated :), but the correlation is seen. Thus, drop may be smaller, but it feels correct to assume some drop and so, R production may come out 22mb instead of 24mb as example :). As R record in Brazil in USDA terms was roughly 23mb, 22mb will disappoint...
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 13 hours ago
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Now for fun: USDA, 16/17 MY produced R in ES 6.7mb or roughly lower for 3.2mb or roughly again 30% lower vs 9.9mb in 15/16; 17/18 production of R in ES came out as 7.2mb, BELOW 15/16MY production of 9.9mb.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 7 hours ago
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This is from Coffee Trading Advisers and Judy Ganes (joint venture) twitter: Although the yields may be lower (for conilon ES), we are not convinced that harvest is a total disaster, as some try to claim.
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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 54 minutes ago
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Given that Judy has a mostly bearish stance, she was bearish at $150, her current news especially from Vietnam, is surprising.
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Fudbal Fudbalko
Fudbal Fudbalko 18 hours ago
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Don't listen, don't believe
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Long Dude
Long Dude 17 hours ago
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Don´t listen or believe - Who??
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Fudbal Fudbalko
Fudbal Fudbalko 16 hours ago
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Long Dude 6 dislike,...
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Catalin Florea
Catalin Florea 18 hours ago
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what s with this dead horse? down, down, down...a bit of upward movement?
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Sam Houston
Sam Houston 20 hours ago
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we might even see 190 before frost season drama.. for now I'm happy, I'll let coffee relax and will just wait.. the spike we had last few weeks I posted about it before it happened and attributed to the cacao fanbois because I heard it firsthand from 4 different farmers in 3 different countries (they don't know each other) and they were salivating for higher prices on their stored bags (hidden bags).. when farmers do such it's always short lived because they are ready to sell the spike
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Fudbal Fudbalko
Fudbal Fudbalko 19 hours ago
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before maybe
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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 21 hours ago
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The rains have power! The price of cocoa fell 30% due to the forecast of rain. Of course, this is a simplification, but when long positions are leveraged too much, a small spark is enough to cause a drop. The situation with coffee is a little different, perfectly described by Viriato, so such large drops should not befall us.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 19 hours ago
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The retest of 200 level is perfectly normal, a specially, until all the important (origins) reports are out. I re-checked all comments re ES production and estimates for 24/25 by main forecasters. ES possible drop in yield was in the cards since the end of 2023 (open sources), reasonable 24/25 production numbers are within 68 - 72mb and main growth attributed to R but not A. Thus, besides USDA that didn't say its word as of yet :), others haven't seen A even 48mb. Some made crop tours and described specific issues that had a chance (at the time) to affect specific areas, like different areas of SDM, Matas, ES, SP. Average growth from OFF to ON was projected within 10% range what is far from record. Harvest started so, more info will be available while it's in progress. Cocoa's 12k happened on squeeze, we all know as it is always the case, the issue was the size of the move and period of time. :) :) :) No doubts that current prices and calmed ferts are stimulative for farmers, but a lot of production globally is done by small farms still and weather still matters...
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 19 hours ago
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ES possible yield issue was attributed to current El Nino effect and correlates well with last strong El Nino, so some reduction if it'll happen, wouldn't be something absolutely strange and unusual... (Got myself a bit of coffee :) just in case :))
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 19 hours ago
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Nobody knows how it's gonna be this time, but it may be worth noting, that reduction that was projected in relation to 20-21 drought, before the frost, was not absorbed that easy, the realization came later, before the harvest started many believed it's gonna be a new record again and price will drop to 50c... The diff is that back then main drought focus was on Brazil only :).
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 17 hours ago
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Meanwhile, some low temps anomalies (given month on same month in a past) started revealing themselves :) in Western India, Pakistan, Myanmar - lowest temps for month of May ever or in decades... (open sources)
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Fudbal Fudbalko
Fudbal Fudbalko 22 hours ago
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good morning
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Sam Houston
Sam Houston 22 hours ago
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now the good Ole question who booked shorts above 229?
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Roberto Tavelli
Roberto Tavelli 21 hours ago
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Great job, I came out with half the position,there's more power, The next objective is further down.
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Sam Houston
Sam Houston 22 hours ago
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good morning ❤️ just woke up to find my orders were filled at 209.. Houston strikes again 236 to 209.. kisses
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To Mas
To Mas 22 hours ago
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endless fall is here again
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