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ICE US Coffee C Futures - Sep 25 (KCc6)

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222.10 -3.35    -1.49%
12:56:00 - Closed. Currency in USD ( Disclaimer )
Type:  Commodity
Group:  Agriculture
  • Prev. Close: 225.45
  • Open: 222.70
  • Day's Range: 221.25 - 223.20
US Coffee C 222.10 -3.35 -1.49%

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MGom MGom
MGom 3 hours ago
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Dude, you need to change meteorologists. The same mistake in 2022, not predicting the future.
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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 7 hours ago
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Viriato: By USDA, 23/24 production was 66.3mb, CECAFE export 47.3mb (weak demand :)), domestic (round :)) 23.7mb, in total 66.3mb - 47.3mb - 23.7mb = 66.3mb - 71mb = -4.7mb. By USDA 23/24 beginning stocks 23/24 have been 4.6mb. The one likes it or not but by USDA (until further notice :) :) :)) ending stocks in Brazil 23/24 are roughly -4.7mb +4.62mb = - 80kb. Or zero.
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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 7 hours ago
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I think that what you wrote is very likely. It is supported not only by mathematics but also by logic. Brazil was encouraged by the KC price, the low BRL rate and most importantly by analysts' projections but also MGom as well as Judy were of the opinion that a record season was coming and prices would only go down from now on. So everyone who had something sold everything. That's logical. And now the inventories in Brazil are sold out.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 12 hours ago
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More from the same article: The ideal would be a loss of around 20%, but, it seems, we will have 30% to 70% losses”, he said in an interview with the portal ES Brasil. The president of Faes gave an example with information from producers in Jaguaré. “They take 50 grams of coffee and count the beans. In 2022 there were 389 beans in 50 grams of coffee. In 2023 there were 365. It improved a little, as the grain was more robust. But this year, there were 524 beans in 50 grams of coffee. Due to the excess temperature, the grains were damaged.” In the general scenario, Júlio comments that Espírito Santo is doing well, because it maintains leading positions, as the largest producer of conilon coffee in Brazil. “Thanks to Incaper’s research, we have clonal coffees, which have a productivity of 100 to 150 bags per hectare.”
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 12 hours ago
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This is from AgriBrazil, 2023, Fernado M is Stone X analyst, if anything... In a way, the occurrence of the phenomenon in 2023-2024 is similar to what was observed in 2015, when a strong El Niño occurred at the end of that year and at the beginning of 2016. At that time, Brazilian production had a reduction of more than 38% in two years as a result of the impacts of the phenomenon. However, there are some differences that show that the impact in 2024 should not be so severe. AgriBrasilis – Are these risks the same for Arabica coffee? Fernando Maximiliano – Not necessarily. Considering the occurrence of the phenomenon between 2014 and 2016, which was the last period with a prolonged and strong El Niño, the impact was severe for the Brazilian Robusta coffee production, but the Brazilian arabica crop showed a different trend, advancing more than 22% between 2014 and 2016.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 12 hours ago
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As drought of 20/21 practically didn't affect R, El Nino in 15/16 didn't affect A. Well, 23/24 was a bit ... different :)... as both A and R got affected at once. Rare case but it happened...
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 12 hours ago
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And pay attention, Sr Rocha is not freaking out, he just describing current situation and notes the development that points to bigger production in the future. Not the end of coffee :) - just current cycle issue :).
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 12 hours ago
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Brazil never sleeps and develops new clones. May be one day, as MGom once said, it will be a coffee tree (trees :)) in every backyard :). But it's not gonna happen tomorrow or the day after... Vietnam is not Brazil at the same time... If ES will have 30% (nobody knows) would it be unrealistic for Vietnam to have the same ???
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Ramya Nataraj
Ramya Nataraj 14 hours ago
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today 240!
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Gyenes Csaba
Gyenes Csaba 20 hours ago
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open 225!
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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude Jul 25, 2024 5:37PM ET
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Cafeicultura: Harvesting flower buds could jeopardize the next harvest. This year, we are seeing an atypical phenomenon in coffee plantations: the early development of flower buds. Normally, this phase occurs after the harvest, when the plants begin to prepare for the next crop. However, due to unexpected weather conditions, we're seeing these buds form before we've even finished the current harvest. 🚜 Impact on the Harvest and the Next Crop This advance is creating a significant challenge for growers. During the harvest, in addition to the coffee fruits, the floral buds are also removed. This removal jeopardizes the production of the next crop, as the buds are essential for the formation of fruit in the following cycle.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 12 hours ago
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Record crops never come on narration like we're having now, they never come on rumors and statements we'are hearing for a while, they come on supportive weather and very uniform flowering. The rumors re flowering that have started to appear are nothing close to uniform flowering... Narration like price may be consolidating for awhile but then a break out stage usually happens and it goes until absolute pessimism is reached what usually :) marks a turning point. We're not there yet but getting close week by week...
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 12 hours ago
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The expression big crops get bigger - small crops get smaller (very popular among grain traders for ages) was born for reason ! It underlines that during evaluation process the instrument that is used is not perfect and conservative approach requires to avoid the border lines :). But with the time as more facts (not projections) are getting known, final numbers move towards more critical levels. The one just needs to check USDA upgrades/revisions of very good/bad crops to see it ...
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Bruno O Souza
Bruno O Souza 11 hours ago
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MGom MGom first check the rain forecast for coffee region, rain in south region do not help coffee flowering, also nobody knows if it will persist(rain) one rain only do not help
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Rodrigo Faria
Rodrigo Faria 9 hours ago
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Where do you see rain forecasts? I can't find anything in the short term?
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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 7 hours ago
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I don't see any rain in the latest forecasts either. The first predictions are not until early September, and until then, beautiful winter weather, systematically 30C.
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Gyenes Csaba
Gyenes Csaba Jul 25, 2024 4:17PM ET
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week 275!
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coffee arabica
coffee arabica Jul 25, 2024 3:04PM ET
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tomorrow 240 easy pizzy
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Oscar Correa
Oscar Correa Jul 25, 2024 11:28AM ET
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Gap never fails
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Ramya Nataraj
Ramya Nataraj Jul 25, 2024 10:35AM ET
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today+10%
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