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ICE US Coffee C Futures - Sep 24 (KCc2)

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228.45 +0.00    +0.00%
13:29:00 - Delayed Data. Currency in USD ( Disclaimer )
Type:  Commodity
Group:  Agriculture
  • Prev. Close: 228.45
  • Open: 217.15
  • Day's Range: 217.15 - 231.95
US Coffee C 228.45 +0.00 +0.00%

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US Coffee C Futures Discussions

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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 3 hours ago
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Some estimates as of spring for Brazil: 1) Stone X - 67mb; 2) Rabobank - 69.8mb; 3) Volcafe - 68.5mb; 4) Conab - 59mb :); 5) Itau BBA - 69.4mb; 6) Comexim - 67.2mb; 7) Safras - 70.5mb; 8)Hedgepoint - 67.5mb, was revised from original of 2023 being 74mb :); 8) NKG, ECOM, OLAM - I was able to find :); 9) USDA - ???.
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 3 hours ago
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Heat waves continue (in general) in India, Asia, CA and Mexico, Africa. But it should start calming down a bit from first week of June at least for some regions... Away from coffee: Short Dude mentioned a week ago (or two) OJ problem in Brazil and its influence on the futures market (this is frozen concentrate). Brazil expects for now a very small crop and two main reasons have been named by Fundecitrus: 1) heat waves (surprise-surprise !!! :)); 2) greening. Now, fun read: 1) greening is known for ages in Florida and couldn't be defeated efficiently up to yesterday, believe it or not; 2) Fundecitrus forecasted for 24/25 a possibility of second smallest crop in Brazil from 1988 or so :); 3) this hurricane season is very reasonably (based on strong historical precedents and developing weather patters) projected to be a very strong one, both - by quantity and quality :), parallels have been drawn with 2005 and 2010 :); 4)nobody knows until it happened and specifically to oranges in FL (not each strong hurricane tortures oranges:)), but the forecast itself (until it's over) will keep the players in shape :); 5) FL has frosts in its oranges counties from time to time and until season is over, it is additional risk, well known. Now, consider the probability: Brazil has very low crop, hurricane hits FL oranges, then frost hits same oranges :) :) :) and the fun starts at the time when OJ prices are where they are (not say it is very illiquid product indeed). :) :) :) In 22/23, when hurricane Ian hit orange growers in FL, the output in FL was considered being lowest in ... roughly 90 years. For 23/24 season, as of April, the production was projected to be just slightly :) higher than in 22/23 - industry will produce 18.8 million of 90 pound boxes instead of initial forecast of 19.8 million (reduction of 5%). But who would think that Brazil, world LEADING producer of oranges (Kenan - surprise ???) projects drop of ... 25% ? Some heat waves, big deal ... :)
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 3 hours ago
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I was not able to find for NKG, ECOM, OLAM their projections **********
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 3 hours ago
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Hedgepoint has reduced his estimate for roughly 6mb (it's the same as to eliminate Honduras:) or A production in SP :)), firm assists with hedging, etc. Highest view was of Rabobank, but even that one is of 70mb - not 72, not 74, not 76, 78, etc... And they all are in agreement :) - a bit below 70mb. :) For a reason ?
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 3 hours ago
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Sorry, highest was of Safras :), not Rabobank :) !*****
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 2 hours ago
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One more fun point: A in blends (if ratio is correct:)) provides taste and so, ability to drink regular drink, supported by love :) of the consumers. But this is if quality is above some certain level. Quality issues that have been admitted by some producers are: 1) more beans to fill the bag (size (weight), density(weight)); 2) future taste of processed and roasted bean. The question: what has to be the price for those beans with a weird :) taste to be competitive with R, and if the taste is not good enough to provide desired taste of the blend, will these beans be used for regular blends ? Question is not irrelevant, as if somehow it will not be used for the blends and should be sold for the price of R or below (just example), then A surplus (if any:)) may get meaningless :). Of course, all depends on final quantity, etc. But as Brazil is dealing with it for the first time in 300 years or so (w-guys insist:)), the result may come out being absolutely unexpected. Or let's say, at least such an outcome can't be ruled out until the dust will settle completely. I'm not agitating and not trying to mislead anybody - stay short, long, out, more importantly - stay safe and sound ! I post this hoping, that someone will share some valuable info or his view, etc...
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 8 hours ago
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ES, Arabica: on May 27th Arabica harvest in ES was officially open. During the opening ceremony, Incaper's Coffee Farming Coordinator, Fabiano Tristão, gave a talk, etc. According to INCAPER, Espírito Santo is expected to produce around 4.2 million bags of coffee in 2024.
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 7 hours ago
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Kenan, just an example: same Incaper :) that was nervous about R production in ES since last year ( up to 30% drop vs expected, same Fabiano) shows no doubts re A production. 4.2mb of A in 24/25 vs ... 2.9mb in 23/24, on roughly same productive area. No end of coffee in Brazil in sight :)... May the reason be that A and R main production in the state is in a bit different areas and so, those areas have been affected differently ? If this is the case, then may Incaper be right about possible production drop for R vs EXPECTATIONS (not exact 23/24 figure) ? Nobody knows, but it would be reasonable to assume that it may... As it would be reasonable to assume that CONAB, while dealing for the first time with that high temps and their possible effect (read - not having previous precise statistic and so not being able to evaluate the effect) but at the same time seeing growth in production in some areas, has decided for simplicity, that growth in some areas may possibly compensate the drop in other areas ? Would it be also reasonable for Conab to consider, as there was no hard statistic from the past never, to show some growth in A and then to deal with the consequences if at all, do not scare the market at the moment when the problem feels :) to be global ? As the coffee is important part of the economy, it is important for Brazilian economy that farmers would continue selling but not hoarding to provide the flow and to, frankly speaking, prevent some exporters, etc firms from falling ? :)
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 7 hours ago
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There are several ways to look at the prices, one is ratio to competitive product: A/R ratio (monthly chart) explains why many A producers may feel some kind of a frustration :). If Vietnam will show great and ES will show great, R will correct to more reasonable levels obviously. But what if not ? :) What if V and ES will not show amazing figures ? Will A stay where it is, even assuming Brazilian A crop will not show drop ? :)
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 6 hours ago
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(Published 2015.)
Sam Houston
Sam Houston 9 hours ago
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watching and enjoying
Coffee Arabica
Coffee Arabica 8 hours ago
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Sam “the bear” Houston goes long?!
Kenan Hajdari
Kenan Hajdari 7 hours ago
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Hey Sam what do you know
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 9 hours ago
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Rodrigo, this is how it sounds: The European Deforestation Regulation, or EUDR, will outlaw sales of products such as coffee beginning December 30, 2024, if companies can't prove they are not linked with deforestation. The new rules' scope is wide: They will apply to cocoa, coffee, soy, palm oil, wood, rubber and cattle. (Mar 30, 2024)
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 9 hours ago
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To sell those products in Europe, big companies will have to show they come from land where forests haven't been cut since 2020. Smaller companies have until July 2025 to do so. It's not fail-safe. Companies can just sell products that don't meet the new requirements elsewhere, without reducing deforestation. Thousands of small farmers unable to provide the potentially expensive data could be left out. Much depends on how countries and companies react to the new laws, Bellfield said. Countries must help smaller farmers by building national systems that ensure their exports are traceable. Otherwise, companies may just buy from very large farms that can prove they have complied. Already, orders for Ethiopian-grown coffee have fallen. And Peru lacks the capacity to provide information needed for coffee and cocoa grown in the Peruvian Amazon.
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 8 hours ago
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Exact implementation in relation to specific jurisdiction/area may vary... Most likely, the reality will be understood when it will get started. But Brazil should be good: :) Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, is better placed, since its coffee grows on plantations that are far away from forests and it has a relatively well-organized supply chain. Also, Brazilian-grown coffee is most likely to meet the EUDR requirements, according to a 2024 Brazilian study, because much of it is exported to the EU, Brazil has fewer small farmers, and about a third of its coffee-growing acreage already has some kind of sustainability certification. :):):) Also, it seems it's gonna be a transition period from 2024 to 2028, a specially for small growers and small origins - a softer way to adjust ... Brazil is few steps ahead :) :) :) (as some researchers started saying about sense to create high temps resistant cultivars about 20 years ago).
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 8 hours ago
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Kenan, the fact that Brazil is advanced when it comes to coffee (and some other products) should not surprise you: 1) it is important part of the economy; 2) Brazil is a powerhouse with 220mil people (335mil USA) and a lot of arable land (huge potential), top 5 producer of roughly 35 commodities; 3) Brazil produces tons of researches, related to important industries and invests a lot of money into tech, to have higher yield, etc. That explains Brazilian success in coffee growing - it is a real industry.
Ana Era
Ana Era 11 hours ago
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Coffee market is a shame.. manipulation of the information and it does not meet any technical parameter
Coffee Arabica
Coffee Arabica 10 hours ago
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Stop reading those funny lines, they don’t mean anything.
Nikolay Borisov
Nikolay Borisov 12 hours ago
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that's like a tornado for me, 5 digits profit ......
ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 13 hours ago
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Today Arabica PA is much stronger than R. It is beginning to become clear that the A harvest is worse than predicted?
Kenan Hajdari
Kenan Hajdari 14 hours ago
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First we've had Marco Antonio Jacob - he was telling us terrible news about coffee production...but again there was carryover- a lot of it. Then came Maya Wallengren ... same thing - even more carryover. Now we have got Viriato... Viri is writting big novels about end days for coffee - next we'll see a huge carryover. I can only say one thing : kudos to the speculators .
Show previous replies (19)
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 9 hours ago
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All of my posts are based on open sources only, it's my basis. You may verify it at any time using Google. From time to time I may make a mistake or mistype, but I correct immediately after noting it. :)
Bruno O Souza
Bruno O Souza 8 hours ago
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Kenan Hajdari really? It is why we produce the double per ha
Bruno O Souza
Bruno O Souza 8 hours ago
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Coffee Arabica not because heat in mexico, but the weather in Vietnam which is the second large producer in tge world behind Brasil, so if you have a break(big) in one if this two countries…….
Bruno O Souza
Bruno O Souza 8 hours ago
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Kenan Hajdari its why we produce same as all African countries together?
Bruno O Souza
Bruno O Souza 8 hours ago
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Coffee Arabica the bulls are bullishing not me
Oscar Correa
Oscar Correa 14 hours ago
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Another cup and handle?
Robert Cunderlik
Robert Cunderlik 14 hours ago
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so you mean the trend is to go long ?
Oscar Correa
Oscar Correa 13 hours ago
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Keep calm and buy the dips ;)
Robert Cunderlik
Robert Cunderlik 16 hours ago
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Guys I just wanna ask you when we will most probably know what is the real situation in Brazil ?
ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 15 hours ago
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You never know with Brazil. It's still unclear how Brazil exports so much, thanks to a good harvest in 23-24 or thanks to carryover stocks? The answer to that question could be worth millions!
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 14 hours ago
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48C was recorded in Oaxaca and 48C - in Veracruz. No USDA (GAIN) reports today.
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 14 hours ago
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Tape didn't say those temps were recorded at the farms, so nobody knows... But 48C air temp may mean 53 - 60C On Leaf temp, depending on other factors as drought, if it's shade grown, health of the tree, etc... (Study I referred to couple of days ago, concluded that 90 min of 49C air temp - no flowers, no fruits assuming good soil level of moisture.)
Fudbal Fudbalko
Fudbal Fudbalko 14 hours ago
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Viriato Magalhaes Man, do you have a life other than this
ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 13 hours ago
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Kudos Viriato, this is real commodity trading, supported by good knowledge about fundamentals.
 
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