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ICE US Coffee C Futures - Sep 24 (KCc2)

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217.15 +2.35    +1.09%
24/05 - Closed. Currency in USD ( Disclaimer )
Type:  Commodity
Group:  Agriculture
  • Prev. Close: 214.80
  • Open: 214.60
  • Day's Range: 212.20 - 219.10
US Coffee C 217.15 +2.35 +1.09%

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US Coffee C Futures Discussions

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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 10 hours ago
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Very informative and illustrative podcast of procafe #129. Alysson confirms the problem of smaller beans, lighter beans (lower density) and quality issues and gives his view on the causes and how it was related to recent weather issues. He doesn't see a catastrophe but suggests producers to pay close attention, etc. (Speaking of A in MG.) He admits that duration of high temperatures doesn't support normal functioning of arabica tree. :) (Normal temps he considers 21 - 23C.) And also, I would not miss the comments that producers, that already watched the podcast made :). This podcast was promised to the viewers but in my view came out rather faster than it would in other circumstances (very personal opinion !) what may indicate that Alysson is 100% sure the problem is worth of attention and no additional information is needed to make a conclusion. The viewers of Procafe are mainly producers as consulting/educating producers is procafe main business. So, the comments, are made by real people (producers) and reflect their current reality.
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 10 hours ago
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So, it wouldn't be very risky :) to conclude that many other origins that suffered similar temps (or still do) will face similar problems and most likely to bigger degree as their trees are/were not managed in the same way as in Brazil and so, their health :) and so ability to resist/survive was/is of lower level besides in some cases the situation was more severe as drought was/is ongoing at the same time. (Drought, besides mostly being a negative factor itself, when combined with high temps amplifies the effect as it causes higher On Leaf temperature (tree has less energy:) ) to adjust/resist) Thus, their reduction may be way bigger (percentage wise) vs Brazil. Well, and the admittance of the problem in relation to high temps questions for some areas next season 2025 yield.
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 10 hours ago
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Besides the fact that taste of some beans will be compromised, Alysson stated that more beans to fill the bag will be the issue for affected areas.
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 10 hours ago
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Data wise, it should be no doubt that heat waves in terms of their duration and extent of the temps were/are unprecedented. But as all has its end, heat waves end may be also almost in hands - top may be in the making or near. So, cooling :) is the thing that has to be closely watched next and a specially, in relation to La Nina, as soon as first real cooling signs will reveal themselves :).
Ramya Nataraj
Ramya Nataraj 17 hours ago
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300.21
ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 13 hours ago
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321.00
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 18 hours ago
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Short Dude. The whole situation in the comments area :) :) :) re possible drop, if to define simply, should be called a confusion. A lot of people form the industry make comments on possible drop, but almost nobody is sure if it will take place and if it will - to what degree... :) Funny or not, but there is a perfect explanation for it :) and it is very simple: lack of previous experience. When the one never dealt with a specific factor how can he come with more or less reasonable evaluation ? Many w-guys stated that all those high temps/heat waves were/still are absolutely unprecedented, one of a kind in 300 years or so, what brings us to 1724, very close to the end of last GSM cycle (Maunder, 1645 - 1715). Who remembers what A/R were doing back then as coffee was introduced to Brazil around 1727 :). Thus, what industry knew till yesterday was the fact, that trees were able to survive previous high temps (we're not speaking of drought now) with a very minor or not visible (important for evaluation) effect. As it is a scientific fact, that On Leaf temp can be air temp +12C / +20C for FULL SUN GROWN method and in its previous 300 years Brazil NEVER DEALT with anything close to what was going on in 23/24, realistic figures can't be made by agronomists, farmers or coop presidents, etc. Many farmers and agronomists by intuition feel that's it's going wrong from the beginning but reasonably want to wait for a next stage of the harvest before new comments, etc. Loaded trees look good, smaller green beans at the start are regular, etc, why talk disasters :) ??? The one who would be able to make professional comments is the researcher of the matter (and multiple studies have been conducted over the years), but those people are different layer and are deeply in their own business :).
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 17 hours ago
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If to consider explanation above being reasonable :), it brings to a next point: if damage was real (MG wise), it will stop being a secret as soon as 1/2 of harvest will be completed and at 2/3 of harvest the scale will be understood. If to assume MG harvest from May 1st to August 31st, the end of June will send real signals :). As of mid May, Cepea commented that in general producers have reported lower productivity for A (early harvest, up to 10%, depends on the area) and lower quality for ES and RO. Thus, as soon as time will come, Cepea will tell the truth ! :)
ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 17 hours ago
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Viriato, thank you for giving me a time how much longer to wait for my Lambo ;) It comes out that coffee is the most complicated plant in the world, it also comes out that agencies prefer to inflate initial estimates and possibly adjust them downward later, rather than the other way around. Which is perfectly understandable. We now need some patience to see who was right.
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 17 hours ago
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You're right, this is what makes coffee good also for speculations. It is a very delicate and complex product :) ! As MGom said once and forever: KC always has life of its own ! (It seems though, R is joining KC :)). But no matter what - Stop Loss is the King !!! :)
Alpha Centauri
Alpha Centauri 18 hours ago
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As per consumption in East Asia: Luckin Coffee (LKNCY) already has more than 18k Shops! How many stores Starbucks globally has?
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 17 hours ago
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You better look at growth in China :) - it seems real fun just started there, what may be confirmed by the visits to some origins and direct purchasing from those origins. It is all about boost, fashion and average income. As soon as it will become real fashion - Kathie will dump other contenders quickly :) ! China grows a bit of coffee in the south but tiny bit...
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 17 hours ago
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Starbacks plans to have 9000 stores in China by 2025, in 2023 it was about 6800 if remember correctly...
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 17 hours ago
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During covid US dealers refused to take Porsches intended for US market. China said it will take Porsches but in exchange wanted more understanding in the future in terms of more supply for China on regular basis. Cars went to China, pattern was changed... Probably, not forever :), but still :)...
ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 16 hours ago
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Starbucks does not sell coffee but flavored syrups and milk :) So, it's not about the coffee they sell, but rather about fashion and the education of a new coffee market.
Alpha Centauri
Alpha Centauri 15 hours ago
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100% agree! It's abt. harvesting the Apples @ShortSqueezeDude;)
ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 23 hours ago
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On Wednesday, coffee trader Volcafe said Vietnam's 2024/25 robusta coffee crop may only be 24 million bags, the lowest in 13 years, as poor rainfall in Vietnam has caused "irreversible damage" to coffee blossoms. Volcafe also projects a global robusta deficit of 4.6 million bags in 2024/25, a smaller deficit than the 9-million-bag deficit seen in 2023/24 but the fourth consecutive year of robusta bean deficits. My question is, who will fill the void left by Vietnam, which is the largest producer of Robusta? Brazil again?
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 19 hours ago
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Volcafe is not alone: The drought that hit Vietnam caused harvest estimates to be reduced from 26 million tons to 24 million tons, according to Fernando Maximiliano, coffee consultant at StoneX. For industries, trading companies and exporters, this should be the new “ceiling” for production in Vietnam.
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 19 hours ago
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Fernando says: In Brazil, if there are no extreme weather events, conilon production could jump from 22.7 million tons in the 2024/25 harvest to more than 24 million tons by the 2026/27 harvest, estimates the consultant. According to him, Brazil is the only country that can increase the area with pasture conversions, especially in Espírito Santo, the main producer of conilon. However, cultivation of the variety can also advance in the south of Bahia, east of Minas Gerais and Rondônia.
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 19 hours ago
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Now ES is like MG: can't disappoint !!! :)
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 19 hours ago
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The president of Cooxupé added that the cooperative maintains the expectation of a 7.7% increase in coffee receipts in 2024 compared to 2023, to 7 million bags of 60 kg – the cooperative members should account for most of the volumes, with an expectation of 5 .6 million bags in 2024, while the remainder will come from non-cooperative producers.
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 19 hours ago
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For 2024, Brazil's Arabica coffee harvest is beginning. And, as in the case of canephoras (robusta and conilon), the market has reported smaller grains at the beginning of work, with hot and dry weather being cited as the cause. But, according to seminar participants, it is still a little early to say whether this trend of “small sieves” will be confirmed throughout the entire harvest. (At least, problem is admitted. :))
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 23, 2024 9:14PM ET
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Guys, I apologize hugely for misleading :) !!! SORRY !!! I messed up with Arabica numbers from Conab report :): Conab has shown 42.1mb in this report vs 40.75mb in Jan !!! Thus, Conab sees increase in A production vs Jan estimate for roughly 1.35mb, what total crop figure wise, covers projected decrease in R for roughly 600kb and leaves roughly 750kb of surplus.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 19 hours ago
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Problem exists. Otherwise they would not speak of smaller grains in the beginning of the harvest at all - as Rodrigo said, it's normal and happens on regular basis, why bother ? They bother, because they feel not all may that normal. Eduardo Carvalhaes, from the traditional brokerage of the same name in Santos, said that he has had information about recently harvested smaller grains. According to him, the average for the highest sieves (larger grains) is 10% below normal. “The first grains are small, but it is not yet possible to say that it will be the standard for the harvest”, he declared. He said he believes this will improve, as grains harvested later are generally larger. But consider that the average harvest should be smaller.
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 19 hours ago
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In theory :) broker should not stimulate producer to increase prices :) :) :). The fact is that comments of that kind (regarding smaller grains, quality, etc) are getting more pronounced. Producers - one story, but agronomists - another. If all would be perfect - agronomists would not be making such comments and wouldn't post pics, etc.
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 19 hours ago
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Minasul: For Guilherme Rezende, commercial director of Minasul, a cooperative also located in the south of Minas Gerais, there was initially an expectation of an increase of up to 15% in coffee receipts in 2024. "But now we have to see if the yield will be affected or not", he said . "The sieves are very low, this could affect the yield, we will have to wait for us to know the size of the crop failure, to know if it will be a trend", he stated, agreeing that the situation will become clearer with the development of harvest.
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 19 hours ago
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More Cooxupe: According to Cooxupé's commercial superintendent, Luiz Fernando dos Reis, the cooperative has already verified in some batches received from the new harvest that the grains "really are presenting a sieve problem". "They are smaller compared to last year, when we had a good sieve year", he stated, noting that it is prudent to wait before making any estimates, as the harvest is just beginning. "I think we have to wait a little, move a little further... Apparently we will have a lower sieve percentage than the average of recent years... To be able to project some better numbers, and whether this will have any impact on the final production, we have to wait."
Kenan Hajdari
Kenan Hajdari 18 hours ago
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You don't need to apologize. We've known this since the beginning...you may continue...
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 23, 2024 12:14PM ET
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Record heat continues in Asia, Oceania, SA ...
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 23, 2024 12:14PM ET
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CA, Mexico :).
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 23, 2024 11:04AM ET
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In 1st estimate of Jan 2024 Conab projected conilon in ES to be 11.1mb. In today's report it is 10.8mb. 300kb lower or roughly 3% lower. Thus, CONAB admitted the problem. Yes, 3% is not 10% but it would be naive to expect it in second estimate. Important fact is, that the issues was noted and so, anybody may think for himself now, what the final correction is gonna be (if at all :)).
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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude May 23, 2024 11:04AM ET
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Are there any new rumors on farmer forums how the harvest is going?
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 23, 2024 11:04AM ET
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Nothing very special, complaints that you're already aware of... The guy I referred to, commented on the issues of green, matured and dry fruit on the same :) branch :), was talking about ... whole MG !!! :). (During technical visits, the Agricultural Engineer and Editor of RC, Antônio Sérgio, has found uneven fruit maturation, showing the presence of green, ripe and dry fruits in the same rosette.) He's an editor of a specialized media, he would not talk nonsense... Some reduction via smaller/lighter/defective beans is in the cards, the question is what it's gonna be... But it means no record A crop is coming - it will disappoint many indeed ! :)
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 23, 2024 11:04AM ET
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Nothing new of what you're not already aware of :). Open sources narration continues in a way that smaller/ lighter / defective beans problem as the result of uneven maturation, etc (high temps. dry spells) exists in whole MG. There are comments in popular coffee media with the pics, etc. Unlikely a conspiracy :) and would imply some adjustment on later basis. It is important, that after one of a kind recent drought, part of the issues were smaller beans, what resulted in more beans to fill the bag. :)
ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude May 23, 2024 11:04AM ET
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Yes, I saw a video on Cafeicultura's profile on IG, on one branch the fruit in different condition. How to harvest it?
Alpha Centauri
Alpha Centauri 23 hours ago
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Need to be separated and graded. Wet proces seems easy - naturals might be a bit more challenging :)
To Mas
To Mas May 23, 2024 9:59AM ET
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bear trap closing green
Wojciech Urbaczka
Wojciech Urbaczka May 23, 2024 9:59AM ET
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I don't think it's closing green
coffee arabica
coffee arabica May 23, 2024 9:45AM ET
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very streng, usually every cherry has 2 coffee grains. Coffees from this crop that are arriving has 1 coffee bean or none.
ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude May 23, 2024 9:45AM ET
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Do you think that CONAB is unaware of this fact?
Bruno O Souza
Bruno O Souza May 23, 2024 9:45AM ET
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ShortDude ShortDude i dont think that Conab already has this information as the coffees are starting to arrive at warehouses
coffee arabica
coffee arabica May 23, 2024 9:45AM ET
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Conab just call to exporters and warehouse and ask questions, they dont go around and make a serius research. thats bullshit
 
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