Get free historical data for US Coffee C Futures. You'll find the closing price, open, high, low, change and %change of the US Coffee C Futures for the selected range of dates. The data can be viewed in daily, weekly or monthly time intervals. At the bottom of the table you'll find the data summary for the selected range of dates.
Decline in Indonesian production for 23/24 projected about 2mb (USDA), decline in ES (BRL) production projected about 2mb (CONAB), in total - 4mb. Vietnam R numbers: 21/22 - 30.5 22/23 - 28.7, 23/24 - 30.2mb (projected) but still lower than 2021/22, R forecast (USDA) for India was lowered about 10% (500kb --> 4.58mb), current weather in India far from perfect... Uganda was forecasted to grow for about 300kb. No growth in R sector among top 5 producers is seen... decline attributed to exessive rains, pests, diseases, lower ferts application... Domestic consumption growth rate in Indonesia considered about 5% at the same time as example... R in MY 23/24 hardly will bring bumper crop either... :)
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Thus, assuming existing A+R data to be useful :) it is only Brazil :) that supposed to surprise everybody. Potential of Brazil is proven, but besides potential simply there is no other origin the story can be told as the hard :) data would not support this story. And retail consumption as cups consumed daily/annualy should not be confused with importers expectation for lower prices and so lower current import as it is not the same. If Brazil will show another drop in export in May (or globally), it may be viewed as less coffee, unwillingness to sell or to buy, etc but hardly as 4mb sudden drop in retail consumption within 5 months as hardly 10mb drop in annual export would mean 10mb drop in consumption - unprecedented.
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Coming USDA report is very important indeed :). Not agitating or unfluencing anybody to buy or sell as all I post is mainly to hear other opinions and for myself :).
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All KC spikes happened due to weather Disaster of some sorts, no D - no spike.In 2018 rough production cost for A (Brl) was considered about $1.25/more. Around 2008 USDA’s average production cost was about $1.25.In June 1998 KC fell below 1.25 and was staying under till October 2007 or so. ICO, rounded, A+R production, mb: 37 in 98, 48 in 99, 48 in 02, 48 in 06, 39 in 07. No rise in production from 99 to 07.Around Oct 07 price rised over $1.25 and was staying higher till Oct 17 or so. ICO, rounded, A+R, mb: 52 in 08, 55 in 13, 57 in 16, 53 in 17. And 2 record crops ON 18, ON 20. Production was rising while price was rising/staying above the level. Around Jan 2018 price went below 125 and was under about 3 years - 3 times less than within previous cycle, new cyclical low was higher.even after two record crops in a row. On adjusted to 2018 basis (USDA), 2020 A crop did not produce new high/had lower yield.
A specially, if price will drop to 120/100 level :).
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Last low can be retested and until it's broken in a sure manner, to me it is still in uptrend :). However, to be comfortable, current pullback would need to stop within 155 - 175 range :). Friday's cecafe shown 1430mb A vs 2129mb same day last month. Cecafe knows its business :) and month is not done but current :) gap at least shows hesitation :).
115 zone. what moves market?dreams and selectove thinking....looking only info what fits in picture.... 115 with ups and down ...very clear .only patience.
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While zero stocks on ICE? Hard to imagine.
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Watching 181.70 🧐🧐
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As commodity prices fall, the argument for strengthening the BRL disappears.
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Encapsulated !
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Great accumulating at 185 -186 for inevitable leg up. Patient long.