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EU poised to impose €21 billion tariffs on U.S. if no trade deal, Tajani says

US Coffee C (KCc3)

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285.35 +4.90    +1.75%
04:37:05 - Delayed Data. Currency in USD
Type:  Commodity
Group:  Agriculture
  • Prev. Close: 280.45
  • Open: 280.65
  • Day's Range: 280.65 - 287.70
US Coffee C 285.35 +4.90 +1.75%

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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Jul 11, 2025 5:40PM ET
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SAO PAULO (Reuters) - Brazil's coffee harvest reached 69% of its 2025/26 crop, up 9 percentage points from the previous week, Safras & Mercado said on Friday.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Jul 11, 2025 1:40PM ET
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The canephora (conilon/robusta) coffee harvest reached 88% of production, ahead of the 83% recorded at this time last year and the 80% average over the last five years. In the case of Arabica, the harvest reaches 58% of production, in line with what was seen in the same period in 2024, but above the five-year average, which is 52%, said Safras.
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Robin Tordoff
Robin Tordoff Jul 11, 2025 8:26AM ET
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Opening a new long here. The mexican stand off has just about ended. Now we have too much sold stock.
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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude Jul 11, 2025 8:26AM ET
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Seasonality indicates a period of stronger prices until early September.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Jul 11, 2025 8:26AM ET
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With roughly 70% of A being harvested, it is kinda safe to say that Brazil knows it production :).
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Sebastian Meyer
Sebastian Meyer Jul 11, 2025 7:05AM ET
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It's too easy. Just short every bounce... it's the Same rythm since 2 month...
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Paul Heymann
Paul Heymann Jul 11, 2025 4:39AM ET
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300 and 320 coming coon
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James Pereira
James Pereira Jul 11, 2025 4:39AM ET
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Selling hope is dirty, bro.
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Seattle Husky
SeattleHusky Jul 11, 2025 12:03AM ET
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So you think coffee price rose from $143 to $430 over 16 months, 300% is reasonable?
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Seattle Husky
SeattleHusky Jul 11, 2025 12:03AM ET
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I guess banana and cotton and other farmers are so stupid that they don't switch to grow coffee or cocoa.
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Juliano Thoms
Juliano Thoms Jul 11, 2025 12:03AM ET
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Seattle Husky not really, those are differente climates and regions, and coffee takes 3 years for the first harvest. Cost of operation also usually goes up with the sales price, so the profit increase for coffee growers is not so extreme
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Seattle Husky
SeattleHusky Jul 11, 2025 12:03AM ET
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Well, people just don't pay for expensive coffee. Brazilian ports are expericing severe delays. However, ICE coffee inventory is not decreasing, which means less people will pay for expensive coffee.
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Bruno O Souza
Bruno O Souza Jul 11, 2025 12:03AM ET
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Juliano Thoms perfect
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Bruno O Souza
Bruno O Souza Jul 11, 2025 12:03AM ET
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SeattleHusky do you think that producing 30% less after a frost gail storm and severe climate issues is reasonable? It is very simple when you have good production ang coffee in stock prices go bellow 1 dollar per pound as 2020, when the opposite happens……….
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Paul Heymann
Paul Heymann Jul 10, 2025 11:26PM ET
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Regranted to 320
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Jul 10, 2025 2:48PM ET
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Bruno, you're not the only one who sold the farm now and from speculative standpoint you did it quite right. There are three major possible outcomes for nearest couple of decades if previous cycle (over 300 years ago) is any guide. Of course, nobody knows the future precisely, but everybody knows that it rhymes with the past quite quite often indeed. So, let's get to the outcomes: 1) Somehow all got super perfect: weather, geo-politics, consumption, duties got negative, inputs, labor, etc. As the result, assuming all the density that was added, the price will crash and so the cap rate and the price of the farm, what means the moment was taken correctly. Price may fluctuate on later basis but nobody knows how and nobody lives forever; 2) Weather, geo-politics, energy and inputs, labor, duties :), etc - all will get very ugly :) and the price will continue higher and higher. But the price is not the only factor, and if inflation will eat quite some slice (and it will ) and climate will affect specific area, average production may barely cover the costs what will affect the cap rate and so the price of the farm. As it was said many times, it is good to have the price $1000 per bag, but it is good for the one who has the bags in particular quantity :). Rumors say some farms recording losses up to 80% currently, nobody knows whose farm is gonna be next as micro climate like a high density is a double sword sometimes :); 3) Everything on average will be so - so: ok - bad, ok - bad, etc, on this basis the price will drop a bit no matter what in a first place, and ... there are gonna be much more farms for sale for sure so, as the result the price will drop even more as usually there are some really desperate offers during that stage... :) as in a business language (probably Helmut may confirm it :)) so - so usually means that profit is not ... always negative :). Technically Bruno sold the current ATH while the market was not just hot but reached the boiling point. Was it intermediate or not - nobody knows for now :)... And it is especially funny to hear sarcasm from the one who predicts 150 in September - from this standpoint the decision to sell and timing have been both just incredible...
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Jul 10, 2025 2:48PM ET
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(The example is related to Bruno's farm and more or less similar farms located around his farm. Not to big flat farms in low areas, etc. Knowing the producers and having the decades of experience, Bruno may focus on roasting, export of his own brand(s), etc. Assuming the consumption will continue growing and 3 outcomes above, his average profit margin (I would risk to say twice) will be much higher than if growing... It is a well known secret within the industry :).)
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Jul 10, 2025 2:48PM ET
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The scale of the spike is function of many factors, but for sure the one of those is ... the base when catalyst has emerged. Most traders got used to two major concepts :): 1) frost once in a while or some quick sudden event of a kind, short lasting; 2) super production and the drop below 100. And that was it for quite some time but it is possible that tide has turned and a third uncommon concept will get the space between first two: on average, year after year something, that affects production a bit, and again a bit, and again a bit on ... growing consumption (growing as everything gets more expensive and still consumed and it goes like that for ages :)). Such an outcome itself will not provide the spike but it will protect/provide the higher base, which base at the time when the catalyst will come :) will provide new ATH, etc. Of course, there are gonna be pull backs and brutal, but the crucial point is the base. As the harvest is about 60 percent done and Brazil for sure knows its rough A production already :), soon we'll see if 200 is a new base or not :). And there is one wild card still in play for the nearest future: pests/fungus real real outbreak. Till now Brazil was able to keep the beast on the leash and it was very successful, but real high density and change of the weather pattern to which everybody got used to, may do the trick. God forbid and protect because if this is gonna be the case one day, the outcome is gonna be very very ugly. All pure speculation for now, but again, not without a merit. :)
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Bukayo Saka
Warioo Jul 10, 2025 2:48PM ET
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Viriato Magalhaes regarding your last point about damage from pests becoming a new factor for the market to react to, how do you imagine this would show in news/reports? How to get updates on frost/ super production are well known, how would the market wake up to major pest issues - low export numbers?
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James Pereira
James Pereira Jul 10, 2025 2:48PM ET
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resistent variations produce more, but cup more ugly.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Jul 10, 2025 2:48PM ET
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The best way to get first indications that something is out of norm would be to watch the degree of deviation of the weather patterns from typical :) and the local/professional media - if the indexes started getting out of the comfortable range for real, etc. As example, from time to time ProCafe guys comment this topic, etc... If (!) one day it will happen - we'll know rather quickly than not, the main thing will be to understand the perspective. Tech is doing tremendous things but the first thing that is needed is the budget, which for most producers is a function of current price. If the price is not that cooperative on a relative basis, then the full fast treatment may be not applicable :) but with pests/fungus time is of the essence if real outbreak starts... The best strategy is to be proactive and this is what the producers do, but as we saw with the yield within last several years, weather still takes its toll no matter what - at some point what worked perfectly yesterday may stop doing that... All pure speculation for now !
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Jul 10, 2025 1:51PM ET
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A good volume green candle for upcoming 50% tariff :):):) ...
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MGom MGom
MGom Jul 10, 2025 1:51PM ET
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Will there be time to buy coffee in Brazil and board by August 1st?
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Brent Fleming
Brent Fleming Jul 10, 2025 1:51PM ET
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Be careful with the conclusion of the days candle. change the time frame to 300 minutes and you will notice the excess volume today came predominately from first 300 minutes of trading (before 8AM NY Time). This looks like a knee jerk reaction to previous days news on August 1 tariff threats. Total certified Brazil bags in the USA is around 2,500 bags (nothing in the coffee world) Last May, 637,767 bags of coffee got stuck in Brazil ports. I don't believe much has changed and MT's of coffee is still stuck in Brazil. Long story short, I'm not convinced this daily candle can be observed in a vacuum without the analysis of how the candle formed. my bias is still down, but for now I'm on the sideline waiting.
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Bruno O Souza
Bruno O Souza Jul 10, 2025 1:51PM ET
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Brent Fleming I would need at least 40 days to ship coffee to anywere
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Bruno O Souza
Bruno O Souza Jul 10, 2025 1:51PM ET
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MGom MGom are you been sarcastic, rigth?
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Jul 10, 2025 1:51PM ET
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It will be always time to buy and board coffee in Brazil :). Between the declared intention and real action sometimes there is a deep canyon :). We remember how previous declarations got implemented. We live in a very funny :) time now and nobody knows nothing :) ... Long term common sense says that coffee will be forgiven :) and US coffee industry will not suffer any serious wounds... Regarding the candle I just meant that on roughly good volume market has managed to close it green no matter tariff threats, ideas of :) amazing A production, etc... Knee jerk or not, most fun happened quickly and what was offered got bought quickly, what tells that fear was overestimated... Basis Dec, the daily volume was bigger than on June 25th... To me daily stoch points to the upcoming bounce somewhere into 320 area or so, and today's action for me personally solidified this idea a bit more ... But nothing is impossible... :)
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Bruno O Souza
Bruno O Souza Jul 10, 2025 1:22PM ET
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Coffee KC you dont exist, looked at google no helmut rei…
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Brent Fleming
Brent Fleming Jul 10, 2025 1:22PM ET
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Bruno, you are correct. The only link I found was a fella in Austria on LinkedIn. It may be him as he had no connections and no picture. Maybe he is Helmut maybe he's not. Still tough to say at this point. Also, I searched coffee import records for his name and came up with nothing on the import side. if he is real and he is really moving an average of 10,000 MT per year (+/-) he is doing it clandestinely.
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Bruno O Souza
Bruno O Souza Jul 10, 2025 1:21PM ET
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Coffee KC,Looked for your name in google, you dont exist Helmut
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Coffee KC
Coffee KC Jul 10, 2025 1:21PM ET
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So people only exist if they are on Google:))))))
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Brent Fleming
Brent Fleming Jul 10, 2025 1:21PM ET
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Bruno, you are correct. The only link I found was a fella in Austria on LinkedIn. It may be him as he had no connections and no picture. Maybe he is Helmut maybe he's not. Still tough to say at this point. Also, I searched coffee import records for his name and came up with nothing on the import side. if he is real and he is really moving an average of 10,000 MT per year (+/-) he is doing it clandestinely.
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Bruno O Souza
Bruno O Souza Jul 10, 2025 1:21PM ET
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Coffee KC check my bane and coffee
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Bruno O Souza
Bruno O Souza Jul 10, 2025 1:21PM ET
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Coffee KC do you Co gas a name?
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