US Coffee C (KCZ6)

This is actually more bearish than the ICE-stock number alone suggests. The market is falling before the expected replenishment of certified stocks has even appeared.

Arabica yield estimate +1.6 mb to 51.8 mb! Coffee KC, will V ever accept facts and stop making his argument based on delusions of a 2.5 mb loss? Dude is out here telling people arabica yield is only 45 mb while StoneX is 7mb higher lol.

Patrick, USDA number is 47.5mb for now, for further clue I would wait for Conab Sep report and if May projection will stay the same or it will be changed. Direction wise Conab sets the tone :). USDA is most followed forecaster, it is not the Stone X or anybody else... Sep export vs Aug export is no brainer, Sep 26 vs Sep 25 is what worth of attention. Re 2.5mb potential (!) loss you know nothing as you do not have any instrument that would allow you to come to any conclusion, meaning any side, bearish or bullish. Common sense and weather data imply some loss/quality loss is a given fact the extent is unknown for now. Stone X is amazing forecaster - trace it yourself ... their main business is not to make forecasts, may be you did not know it... :):):) Lol ! 47.5mb or 80mb :) is not yield, it is production, yield is the quantity of bags per ha averaged for the whole A area. Lol :) ! Vs normal, not affected OFF crop production of 44mb the ON crop production of 47.5mb shows very subdued performance somehow Lol, especially on all the expansions that took place Lol :) ! 2025 USDA production was ... disaster LOL, it makes no sense on a relative basis to look at 30% increase YOY as some huge achievement !!! Lol. 23+24 A production was bigger than 25+26 - do the math :), in MY20/21 global stocks were 37mb, projected production was 176mb, consumption 165mb (11mb projected surplus on the 37mb stocks basis) and 2020 came in bigger than projected Lol :) :):) ! It is not about 47mb or 45mb - it is about the catalyst, in the absence of the catalyst the price always consolidates ... lower :):):) and especially right after the harvest Lol :) ! If it's gonna be no bullish catalysts going forward - it's gonna be no spike Lol !!! I do expect them to appear (just me personally) in current cycle and to be quite of a scale. In my expectations I can be easy right or wrong but LOL it has nothing to do with current global situation which is quite tighter :) Lol than in 2020 on the stocks/production/consumption basis.

AA - to your question re the mistakes and if they are intentional or not :). Cecafe shows on dif pages dif numbers for the period, ending Sep 4th: page 1 : 459336 bags Sep vs 361607 bags Aug, page 2: 458656 bags vs 351006 bags, meaning issued certs... As the difference is marginal hardly it is intentional but the issue exists :):):).... The good thing is that it does not matter for the paper speculators... :):):)

KC - ya but didn't they get 170% of historical rain last week? Isn't that going to kill the next harvest? LOL.

With 170% rain there is no coffee anymore in Brazil as brazilians and VM would claim 😝

272

My view is simple. If to remove 2.5mb from 47.5mb (USDA) as affected by June/July rains then you will get 45mb. The 2023 OFF crop was 44.9mb, 2024 ON crop was 44mb and 2025 OFF was 38mb (USDA). 23+24 production = 88.9mb, 25+26 production = 38 +45 = 83mb. Thus, the global balance got worse but not better and I don't see how 45mb on a bit worse :) balance would do the trick if 44mb in 2024 did not... El Nino is projected to reach record readings within couple of weeks and not all are ignoring that fact. At the same time, 45mb (47.5mb USDA) is a decent crop and when the bags start hitting the ports, the price feels the pressure. Between 260 and 280 there are many good supports which supports will either hold or not. The fact that it happens around the flowering makes the whole thing quite sensitive and the fact that temps may advance due to El Nino adds potential fire. (Assuming summer rains unlikely perfect uniform flowering will take place.) Diesel, ferts, etc - not bearish for the price projecting next crop or ... :) crops... Thus, all existing factors for now (!) are ... not bearish long term. In my view the beauty of the situation is in its simplicity: we watch exports, flowering, temps and diesel/ferts. And separately watch very carefully fungus/pest indexes. Assuming delays caused by rains, Sep/Oct/Nov months are the months when the price has to crash in a sure manner if all is perfect. On a daily chart stoch is oversold and a confluence :) support is around 280 level. That's the sweet spot for me to start building the position (not intraday !) assuming all will be in compliance :). Till then I'm in intraday regime :).

( In relation to the long squeeze I would say that it is informative that there is such a struggle around 300 level at the time when the warehouses :) do not accept anything besides gold and cash :) and super record harvest :) started hitting the market. Everyone who is talking manipulation needs to understand that in the futures market it requires infinitive funds what is never the case. Market is market and nobody knows what it's gonna do tomorrow and for that there is a stop loss :) and the hope that the gap will not happen to you :):):) when it will go against ... )

No offense, but this is why no one should listen to you. The entire foundation of your premise is built on an assumption of 2.5 mb loss. There is no evidence of that number anywhere and is pure speculation on your part. StoneX raised their arabica yield on Sept 2nd to 51.8 mb. You position yourself as an expert but don’t even have the latest numbers a day after they are released.

It was threatening to go green but why break the habit ? I’m sure there will be a green day. I took my short profit and went long on Robusta. Still short on Arabica on half

is it?

Is it falling or you see green ?

Waldorf red is not green 🤣

Sold half my short position. Will add to Dec short if it rises to 300. Good to book profits

Good timing .. 👏

280 it is

Any recovery will be slapped down from 300. Might have a intra day bounce at 290 before resuming fall to 280

BAU - predictable easy trade, slight fall on open before gap down midday onwards

I suggest you talk more to people from origins...

What would they say that’s different?

They would lie as usual

Viriato... they want another lecture... :)

Not unless there’s a report saying El Niño draught for next three months

Lets wait and see

14% down in 7 trading sessions, average 2% a day and every day is down. Back to where it was at beginning of July.