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US Coffee C (KCU6)

Real-time derived
Symbol
Exchange
Currency
KC·Derived·USD
KCc1·ICE·USD
KCc2·ICE·USD
KCc3·ICE·USD
KCc4·ICE·USD
KCc5·ICE·USD
KCc6·ICE·USD
KCc7·ICE·USD
Currency in USD
320.30
+7.70(+2.46%)
Closed·

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

Censored again!
AGAIN, misinterpreted info by purpose. The new crop is 24 mil.bags bigger then lasf year, meaning the harvesting is faster and not as bellow paid news are explaining : Coffee prices settled sharply higher on Friday amid a delay in Brazil’s coffee harvest.  Safras & Mercado reported on Friday that Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest is 64% complete as of July 15, behind last year’s comparable level of 77% and the five-year average of 70%.   
The rate of the harvest is the only thing left for them to grasp at. Their percentage angle is completely misleading. When this goes, and it will, pain will be felt. In a couple of weeks, once the harvest is over the next event will be El Nino.
That is another distraction. A small pocket of water with higher than the historical average temps and this now has the POTENTIAL to wreck the coffee industry. A part of me kind of wants the Brazil coffee industry to crumble. World shortage will push prices up, but Brazil won't benefit. In the end it would be fitting.
Sometimes, when you mess around, you find out.
The COT report is not fundamentally bullish. It confirmed that the previous rally was driven primarily by short covering and position liquidation rather than fresh buying, as funds reduced exposure, commercials increased selling, and total open interest declined. However, today’s 7-cent rally cannot yet be classified as fresh buying because today’s open interest will not be available until Monday. If Monday’s report shows price up with a meaningful increase in open interest, it would suggest new position-building. If open interest declines, the rally would more likely represent additional short covering rather than the start of a sustained bull market.
Well that was a boring day. I missed the north-bound train at 9:30 EST this morning after the posting of the OI number which confirmed yesterdays move down was on a growing OI which would indicate more down to come then the exact opposite occurred. we shot up. Market liquidity is scarce leading to unpredictable moves. Let's see how this move up reflects in todays OI. Might be short term short covering from yesterdays moved down. As mentioned in an earlier post 312 is the floor to break down and 328'ish is the ceiling to break up. Next week will tell us more as the harvest continues. Not hearing much negative about current harvest and that is what caused us to rocket up from 280 to 350'ish.
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Doesn't look like today will be a record setting day. However, OI is up for the first time in a while. It is up on a down day which would indicate fresh short joined the move. From a technical point we should see more downward movement. What was funny is just before the OI release the price jumped up. Curios.
No power to test 320 intraday Europe trading. I see red close.
Well, apparently it was the US turn to run up the price.
I just read and article that stated farmgate prices in Brazil keep falling. Can anyone confirm that?
Pal, so when you say 'I don't see that', what do you mean?
I mean in the reports I get here and there from local agents, I don't see prices offered are going down.
They have been going down last 4 days, but according to market weakness. Nothing beside that.
Below is a summary of EU coffee consumption trends by country over roughly the last three years (2021–2023/24), based on the European Coffee Federation (ECF) and USDA market reports. � ECF +2 Country Trend (last 3 years) Approx. change Germany Stable 0% to +1% Italy Stable 0% France ↓ Declining -7.3% Spain Slight ↑ +1–2% Netherlands ↓ Declining -5.5% Belgium ↑ Growing +4.4% Austria ↑ Growing +4.4% Poland ↑ Growing +1.9% Romania ↓ Declining -2.5% Bulgaria ↑ Fast growth +8.2% Czechia ↓ Declining -4.1% Slovakia ↓ Slight decline -2.0% Hungary ↓ Sharp decline -16.4% Sweden ↓ Slight decline -0.9% Denmark ↓ Declining -4.2% Finland ↓ Largest Nordic decline -11.7% Ireland Slight ↑ +1–2% Portugal Stable 0–1% Greece Stable 0% Croatia Slight ↑ +1–3% Slovenia Stable 0% Lithuania Slight ↓ -1–2% Latvia ↓ -2–3% Estonia ↓ -2–3% Luxembourg Stable 0% Cyprus Stable 0% Malta Slight ↑ +1–2% Overall EU picture Total EU coffee consumption has remained essentially flat, around 1.74 million tonnes annually over the last three years. � ECF +1 Mature Western European markets are mostly stable. Eastern Europe is mixed: Bulgaria and Poland continue to grow, while Hungary, Romania, Czechia and Slovakia have declined. Nordic countries have seen the largest reductions, mainly due to inflation and higher retail coffee prices. � ECF For someone in the coffee trade, the most attractive growth markets today are: Bulgaria Belgium Austria Poland Croatia (modest growth) The weakest markets are: Hungary Finland France Netherlands Denmark
That's true, the Netherlands coffee consumption is declining year after year due to high prices
Most of old western market Reality is and coffee community does not realize it or will not, until they wake up to late, is that younger generation do not drink a lot of coffee as the older ones. They drink energy drinks foe boost and survive the day and night full of challanges and also because of the trends like FOMO.
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Reuters Report today: Brazil instant coffee sector exempt from new US tariffs, protecting up to $2.5 billion in exports.
What abt other types of coffee processed ?
Coffee KC - Deeper search confirmed that all coffee products are exempt based on an interview with Rubio (Furtune - article by By Michelle L. Price and The Associated Press)
Total EU coffee consumption has remained essentially flat, around 1.74 million tonnes annually over the last three years. � ECF +1 Mature Western European markets are mostly stable. Eastern Europe is mixed: Bulgaria and Poland continue to grow, while Hungary, Romania, Czechia and Slovakia have declined. Nordic countries have seen the largest reductions, mainly due to inflation and higher retail coffee prices. � ECF For someone in the coffee trade, the most attractive growth markets today are: Bulgaria Belgium Austria Poland Croatia (modest growth) The weakest markets are: Hungary Finland France Netherlands Denmark
It's 2026 and not 1826, as some are in it by providing fake news and data.
Viriato You'll see my response to the 'ground beans' malarky when the sensors let my comment through.
Bonus track before leaving :). USDA projected MG to produce in ON 2026 about 34mb of A. In OFF 2023 MG produced 33mb - to give you an idea of the record :):):) A crop. Extensive/strong rain during June affecting ripe cherries more than it would be if the rain would be normal - normal issue, nothing special. Keep in mind that fallen cherries are counted :) unless they are way too damaged in which case bags and quality (export) are affected. If all damaged cherries will reach 1mb for whole MG (nothing strange percentage wise vs received rain) projected bags will come to 33mb what will make it the same as 2023 OFF. Speaking of records... :)
Do you have a turn off button for your BS ?
Go p-ss with the wind comrade H - that's the way to get 1.30 in Dec:). Drink a lot of coffee before - it will help ! :):):)
Well I'm being censored again.
Viriato Magalhaes which Kleber? I Know many , Maybe Kleber Paiva? Yes see you at 1.30, or maybe he changed the numbers, maybe he was telling us 3.10
Bruno, his behavior indicates he's in constant trouble. If he's a physical who turnt into spec being seduced by easy money it would be very understandable. Rarely such transitions end up good :). Only idiot would rely on one particular person opinion about MG production, the idiot that has no idea about the differences between the areas, micro climates, etc... But the guys like him are perfect for the bulls as they make the base even stronger :):):).
Helmut, comrade :): any time it comes to support your statement with the data/source you change the subject. That implies that the perfect thing you can do is to p-ss with the wind :). We'll see if it will replace the ferts :) and will help you to get to 1.30 :):):).
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AA - you will find online plenty of confirmations of fallen beans. It will not let guess the percentage in relation to the bags/quality loss of course. What's about inside from MG producers ? What is the production they expect in MG this year ? May I get some inside too please :) ?
Done deal but on one favor :): You will tell me how consumption/retail is doing in Holland :) and I'm gonna be gone till Dec USDA report :).
I get it. You and Helmut would work nicely together :). I did a short squeeze myself - AI will help you to get all the data about current consumption and the trend :). (The Netherlands specialty coffee market is experiencing robust growth and transformation as it enters 2026. While the broader Dutch coffee market is growing at approximately 4% annually, the specialty coffee segment is significantly outpacing this with a 7.7% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) expected through 2032 . This premium segment has moved from niche status to a major market force, driven by increasing consumer sophistication, sustainability demands, and the maturation of third-wave coffee culture across Dutch cities.) I got it quickly from very open online sources. Thus, you was wrong about the consumption all the time and the fact that you was not able to evaluate the consumption/trend in your home country correctly tells a lot about the level of your skills :). See you in Dec !
BS AGAIN !
JUST WAITING THE DAY WHEN THEY ADMIT ABT COFFEE CONSUMPTION DROP (Which Lavazza did in fact already this year) September ICE NY cocoa (CCU26) today is down -532 (-9.04%), and September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU26) is down -405 (-9.28%). Cocoa prices plummeted today to 1.5-week lows.  Signs of weak global demand are undercutting cocoa prices today after the European Cocoa Association reported that Q2 European cocoa grindings fell -4.6% to 316,366 MT, a larger decline than expectations of -1.5% y/y and the lowest level for a Q2 in six years.
I like BC reports. Its written like for idiooots : Coffee prices are moving sharply lower today, with arabica sliding to a 1-week low.  Strength in Brazil’s coffee exports is weighing on prices today after Cecafe reported that Brazil’s Jun green coffee exports jumped +14.4% y/y to 2.64 million bags. 
Written like it happened overnight. My god who names himself market analists nowadays.
BC reports are actually BS. Simply garbage. I read them when I need a good laugh.
Pal, after reading your comments on the Brazil farmers and reflecting I can't help thinking about Mike Tyson's comment, 'Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face'. OPEC also had a strong alliance until the United Arab Emirates (UAE) left to sell more oil unfettered. The same will happen in Brazil. It takes one farmer to start the avalanche and one always rises to the occasion. Greed always hurts in the end.
Coffee KC I agree that over the last 5 years the farmers have built a war chest, but one player always tries to advantage of the situation. While some stand strong, one always quietly unloads and before you know it a second jumps in and so on. Greed always turns into panic. Business owners are always strong when they feel rich but the moment they sit in the evening doing math multiplying their crop weight by the sale price and every day they have a little less. That is a psychological game, even the most seasoned trader struggles to overcome the anxiety of capitulation. I'm betting on a portion of farmers to crystalize their gain and put real not theoretical cash into the bank.
I tend to agree on the psychology, but key is the need or not for cash. I think, my personal opinion, that you are underevaluating how the average farmer dislikes central government and how fearful he is of politics and banks. I agree though that small farmers (typically those part of coops) will panic, if fall begins.
2021 price was 1.20 , went up to 2.08 after the July frost, so I dont get it “the Brasilian farmers are making a lot of money the last 5 years” August 2024 was 2.50 when somebody here predicted my death together with KC market
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For Bruno & Viriato, in order to stop lying : The latest official completed Brazilian coffee crop (2025 harvest) from Conab is: Total: 56.5 million 60-kg bags Arabica: approximately 35.8 million bags Robusta (Conilon/Canephora): approximately 20.7–20.8 million bags
You keep saying nonsense after nonsense but can't provide any real inside what means there is no inside or inside is limited to a specific farm or few, located within particular area. Nobody uses CONAB figures as they simply do not match with the export/domestic as they create negative stocks in Brazil :).
Oh really, so suddenly CONAB is crap and their crop estimates are gold standard. You are constantly pisss....ssing against the wind on to yourself.
I think that during this crop the world will realize how much power Brazilian farmers have after the last 5 years of passion. It is clear from COT, especially full disaggregated one, that they are not selling. They didn't sell into the 240-350 rally, so why? Do they fear a price collapse? I have some doubts. Do they fear they won't put food on the table? not at all. They know perfectly that the world needs something from them, much more than they need something from others. But their cashcow is not the world: it's the exporter, who's already, as usual, short and MUST buy. It's not a matter of 65-75m bags, it's who hold them and who needs them. Independently from quality, bean size, rains, dryness, whatever... And believe me, when I say they already have more money than they need, it is like that.
Coffee KC you frequently have me scratching my head. Not sure if the crossed fingers are good or bad.
Its good this time
not in mine. but I'm sure we don't live in the same kind of society.
Just gave back some of this weeks profits on a failed long scalp. Looks like we are headed lower today. Looks like MM is not playing today or long covering. OI interest down again yesterday so I'm leaning on long covering. If so this might be the start of a faster trickle down. Let's see what happens. For those currently long take note.
Even though Brazil's coffee harvest is moving 8% slower this year, farmers have actually picked 2.16 million more bags of coffee than they had by this time last year. This happens because the total crop size is much larger this season—jumping from 54.2 million bags to a very conservative estimate of 66.7 million bags. Because the overall 'pie' is so much bigger, a lower harvest completion percentage (52%) still yields more physical coffee (34.68 million bags) than last year's faster 60% pace. This is all academic given I'm using projected estimates for this years crop. Can anyone point me to a reliable data source of actual completed harvest.
Viriato Magalhaes - What Coffee KC is asking is for you to provide some tangible proof beyond your words.
Why do you think somebody would share data here 🤣🤣🤣🤣 Slow guy
Coffee KC - If you don't ask, well you won't get. You know the old saying, 'Even a broken clock can tell time twice a day'.
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how do you interpret the spread between September and December contract? I think that mid August will be interesting.
the window for index to roll sep into dec has begun accordingly with many clearing houses.
it will indeed be interesting to watch this spread. accordingly with a couple of trade houses, some 2-3-400k bags brazil will hit the board, which is in itself a bit bearish. My perplexity on this having a weight, is that when you can get out at -7 instore antwerp a nice looking, correct in cup santos coffee with a spread still around 10-15, why would you stop them ? that level is commercially unbeatable right now.
*wouldn't you
The consensus from the major weather models (ECMWF, GFS, CFS, and Brazilian meteorological guidance) is that Minas Gerais is likely to remain warmer than normal with below-normal rainfall through at least mid-August, although isolated weak cold fronts may produce scattered showers that are unlikely to end the dry pattern.
really? with ny still 80c (abt 35%) above the low, do you really think that a bearish positioning was so successful?
It is and will be Traders have both positions Thats called trading
dry air
Price needs a little correction, we might see 280 - 290 soon
Price shall go back to 230-240 range by mid august and then see where we are
true we might see that as well, but i would give it 25% chance only.
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