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ICE US Coffee C Futures - Dec 24 (KCc4)

ICE
Symbol
Exchange
Currency
KCDerivedUSD
KCc1ICEUSD
KCc2ICEUSD
KCc3ICEUSD
KCc4ICEUSD
KCc5ICEUSD
KCc6ICEUSD
KCc7ICEUSD
Currency in USD
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223.95
+3.25(+1.47%)
Delayed Data

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

Maja posted in her twitter about possibility of lower yield for current Brazilian harvest, related to irregular maturation, provoked by the weather issues, etc, citing her contacts. :) :) :) in both MG and ES (!). May be this is what JG meant while mentioning that some expect lighter yield ???
Thank you very much for your comments !!!
Ah, Maya... everytime she sasys we will have coffee trouble...we get millions of bags in carryover...
Maya is the bard of the apocalypse. It is important to remember this and take the correction.
Why so much up? Any news?
This is hopeless. You have Viriato's priceless analysis in front of your eyes, and yet you ask such questions. Make some effort.
Lol
Team Arabica here! ❤️
Again, top is in. Funds are all in and Arabica (trash) will drag down the coffee complex
This is real commodity, not crypto. When there is real supply problem, then sky is the limit. Look at cocoa, funds were all in from 4k, price went to 11k.
Specs are record long and commercials - short, no doubts. But if to look at cocoa monthly chart, it will be seen that Specs made record long high (well correlated with a previous) a bit below 4000, after what specs started reducing longs, commercials - shorts, and price went up to 12000. Not saying it must happen to coffee - nobody knows, but when catalyst is real it all may go a bit different...
Thanks for the confirmation, Ry.
OK, nice info Virato BUT what are your price predictions for this week and May?
Damian, calm down and respect your elders.
Respect me
Damian, I can't (unfortunately :)) predict the price. I'm personally bullish biased but it doesn't mean much. As I'm bullish I'm trying not to miss bullish developments (in my view !) on both, fundamental and technical fronts. But as KC always has life of its own (MGom :)), I always rely on stop loss :). In my view, for the bulls to be perfect now, the pull back should stop within 200 - 215 cluster.
Interesting facts: as of April 2024 only 2010 had warmer sea surface temp in the Atlantic main development region vs 2024 and only a few years are in the same context as 2024 and those years are: 2023, 2010, 2005, 1969 and 1958. Those years were marked by strong hurricane activity and besides ... years 1958, 1969, 2005, 2010 correlate with drought in NEB. MG/coffee areas are not exactly the same as all NEB but still :) ...
Very rough production numbers for the origins that have recorded high temps (in general, not exactly coffee areas !!! ): SE Asia and Oceania - 50mb, Africa - 20mb, Caribe/CA/Mexico - 19mb, in total - about 89mb. 4mb of 89mb is about 4.5%. Nobody knows, but assuming the total quantity of origins and recorded temps, it doesn't seem to be impossible... Also, not all the origins are that tech savvy and advanced as Brazil is... And some w-guys say the heat will/may continue into May... Nobody knows again, but all those weather anomalies have been recorded, it's not a random guess to please the one's dream of market move...
For instance, heat wave continues in Asia, over 40C in many countries (in general). Karnataka and Kerala suffered some dry spells and high temps (roughly 2/3 of Indian coffee), at the same time coffee shops quantity is rising and so consumption... This is from Indian media. Nothing dramatic, no devastated crops in sight, but expecting some reduction (or narration at least :)) wouldn't be strange... Though other news from the beginning of April citing drying rivers and so some coffee farms affected, etc... All in all, the point is that while it's impossible to define the extent at the moment, news about good crop development are completely absent...
That was the headline: Drought looms over Chikkamagaluru as rivers run dry in Karnataka's coffee hub. First published on April 5th. :) :) :)
What can we expect on Monday in that case?
Is road to 300 possible? What do you think?
JG posted this morning from Dak Lak: You either have some water left in your well or you do not. Some farmers have irrigated 7X (times ? :)) already but don't have water for an 8th round. If it doesn't rain soon, the crop will pass the point of no return. All farmers expect a further decline in 2024/25. And a happy farmer, irrigating the trees at the pic.
As MGom said, rains are expected shortly in Vietnam and all can change to some extent. But it worth of attention, that there are rains and rains as 10mm not equal 50mm, etc. May seems to be super important month as in May: 1) Conab - will it admit some potential quality loss, etc or not for A ?; 2) USDA will publish Vietnam, Indonesia, India, Mexico, Guatemala, etc reports; 3) By some w-guys now, La Nina will not come before September, hot water :), etc - El Nino effect may (!) last till August in some areas...
Currently: high temps in Vietnam, Thailand, Manila, India, Laos, etc.
Climate anomalies like now haven't been seen for over 300 years (open sources). GSM progresses the way it should - next stage should be cooling (if to believe history :)). Main question is how smooth the transition will start ? :) :) :)
Hi guys, what can we expect in the next week? Do you have any ideas?
Rains and Flowers are arriving in Vietnam in next days
What does it mean - is it bullish news?
Yes, there will be plenty of beautiful flowers to sell!
lol
Stay calm , hold your position at least for a week
Do you know why it goes down so much? I'm thinking about closing the position with a loss :(
Don't drink&drive
Stay cam - and hold your position.
Yes stay calm & hold your post at least foe a week
Drought monitor shows that soil in Brazil is already more dry than normal. Weather forecast is without any rain for next 45 days. Both Arabica and Robusta regions. Some say this is good for harvest, maybe...
Brazil is exporting beans pulled from the deepest warehouses.
Another good example of growing consumption in Asia: Cambodia, in 2014 consumed about 100kb, in 2022 - about 160kb (open sources). Thus, it's not just Vietnam, it's a trend. Laos growth rate is about 2percent on average annual basis, etc... More income, more western culture :), more population - more consumption... Of course, the rate is lower when it comes to Korea and Japan...
To cover 44mb of export and 23mb of domestic, Brazil needs 67mb. USDA saw production of roughly 66mb for 23/24 + ending stocks of roughly 4mb for 22/23 --> 70mb. All inline with current development :).
cofffee wants ath and destroy leverage sellers
Nah, really doesn’t. Arabica is trash and will drag overall complex down. Top is in
May R crossed 4500.
Thailand was on the news about record temps. Ryan Delany posted that its sugar production is seen now roughly 20% below previous season production. Sugar is not at all coffee, but the fact confirms that high temps were real, etc. Could coffee be affected also ? Who knows ? :) - is honest answer but probability/risk wise it would be more correct to suppose that yes :) vs no ...
This is from Jim Roemer, Best Weather Spider, on April 22: Vietnam faces worst coffee drought in decades... Jim is in this business for over 30 years, specializes in weather/commodities researches, weather guy by definition... So, Jim witnessed weather issues in Vietnam not just once and Jim is never perma-something: he is based strictly on what he's seeing ahead teleconnections/history wise, etc. His comment kinda also explains why JG left to inspect Vietnam...
Hi Viriato , your spot on with your observations! I'm from India. The primary coffee growing regions Chikmagalur, Coorg and Wayanad were reeling under drought like conditions with record daytime temperatures !! Coffee here even though shade grown took a bit of a beating . In fact we just received " blossom showers" now which was due FEB- MARCH.
hiii ❤️
i did not understand 213/210? What that means
Chart
213/210?
im waiting for my levels, still way overshoted
time to buy some coffee
Już niżej nie spadnie?
220.oo game over
The game is over?
Armageddon got subdued, at least for now :).
Thank you very much Rodrigo for your comments ! I think that Judy Ganes decided to go there to inspect because the internal rumors are that damage may be bigger and it may affect next season and extent can be meaningful, etc. Otherwise why going ? Initially, next season supposed to be a good one... But if, somehow, it was affected, (flowering, etc) it would support R and her clients would better know it now :) :) :) !
this is all speculation. its been said that brazil and other regions will have more A production then some of these other nations showing deficits.
But how much?
what is going on?
Armagedon
If it follows cocoa patterns u can expect tremendous gains…check the weather if it was crops friendly in the producing countries like brazil so u will have better picture.. good luck
Do we expect coffee prices to hike in the coming weeks? if so, by how much?
Ahhh, to have a crystal ball :-)
It seems like cocoa processing in North America went up in a first quarter: plants processed 3.6% more vs first quarter of previous year (open sources info :)). Main point is not it grew up but it didn't fall as many expected due to price... Strong El Nino was usually damaging for Vietnam coffee crop and it seems, it happened again. But the one has to ask himself a simple question: if just some :) damaging weather, not yet (if at all) officially fully confirmed, is able to produce the move roughly equal to a move, justified by real multiple, fully confirmed frost in Brazil, is it really just weather in Vietnam or it may be something more to it ? Because if there is :), current move has a chance to continue (including pull backs), at first, toward 290 area and then who knows ... :) As GCA doesn't publish and current move up happened on superb Brazilian export, CONAB (till previous report) hasn't found anything suspicious and most important USDA reports, related to R are coming out in May as next CONAB report and ECF stocks report also coming in May (Brazil in June), weather continues to impress here and there, KC may still have about 1.5 months to entertain the market... :). I don't know if JD completed any field trips recently, but as she has very very long and extensive experience, unlikely she would mention the possibility of lighter yields for current Brazilian crop without any data in her hands... :) Also, Stoch on weekly and monthly charts didn't produce sell signal yet. All may change quickly of course, as KC has life its own :)... NOT an agitation to do anything !!! :)
Superb export ex-Brazil post harvest 2023 may tell whatever :), but first of all, it tells that Brazil has coffee to export and consumption is doing just fine, otherwise export wouldn't be that great. Decreased export can be also explained by many reasons, but besides conspiracy and greedy producers :), it may mean that production/stocks are not that high and so, producers may allow themselves to be thrifty for some time... :) :) :)
For instance, I saw some comments from Indian producers (Karnataka), complaining about the high temps and affected crop. I have no idea if it's true or not and if it is - to what degree, but high temps have been confirmed by weather stations, services, etc. Thus, at first and personally, I do expect some reduction to be stated and then everything else :). Reduction can be meaningful or not - it remains to be seen, but again, the temps were/are reality, not guesses and reduction would be inline with normal reaction of tree, etc... Most origins are not that technically/technologically advanced as Brazil and so, I would assume that in a bad scenario, effect would be of higher degree... There were rumors of possible quality issues in Brazil, how meaningful it is or will be :), if at all - remains to be seen, but weather was not perfect to provide superb crop... Weather could be manually :) corrected by some producers but for sure, not by all of them... :) :) :)
producers are known to hold product back to increase prices, this isnt shocking at all.
Co dalej będzie? Jak myślicie?
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