ICE US Coffee C Futures - May 25 (KCc1)

I'm just curious to see argumentation and nothing else :). Export numbers can be always viewed differently according to the concept in use: no coffee or unwilling producers, etc. However, the stations data in comparison with 2018, 2019, 2020 speaks for itself and this is fundamental truth :) and thus, applied to the situation, it points more to the issue with coffee than to the issues with producers. COT wise, monthly chart clearly shows that 1994, 1997, 2011 final tops have been produced on diverged COT. :) What means that existing top may still not be the top, even if intermediate :). Harvest time is a perfect time for the top as more clarity is available for everybody :). And a Great Weekend to you too Frank !

As said proper reflections. And I do not want tò drive anyone in some direction. Some numbers Will be available soon for Conillon (the Vietnamese and India Robusta more or less already know they produce more or less the same volumes of the past : they export 20% less in average they earn 30% more in average. Industry cover what neededf. Future production expected tò be higher for both and with the carry left by the lower export I let you make the proper conclusions The same for the Arabica ( even of It Will be seen in a couple of months). Then as expressed before everyone Is able tò find out numbers and give its interpretation. The coffee market in my personal opinion Is not under Attack from weather and climate buy from the news that only consider One side of the environment. Full picture has a more in depth explanation

Bonus question :). As 2023 was a record OFF A crop of 45mb (USDA), a 2024 ON A crop should be about 52-53mb, no less in normal circumstances, most likely 54-55mb, assuming expansion, etc. However, 2024 was considered by USDA being roughly 45mb, what translates into underproduction of roughly 8mb. Now, your turn: 1) Do you consider 8mb diff vs would be normal a serious factor ? 2) Do you think that big market participants have to worry on that basis ? 3) Do you understand that it happened on practically no disaster declaration, green trees, etc ?

You Question is well put, but ultimately Ro has no understanding of the big picture and simply cherry picks items/factors from the big picture that suit his small picture.

Jibbering on about oranges and eggs in a coffee forum sums it up.

Does this mean people will have more money for coffee?:)

Cocoa would be more applicable to coffee, but Cocoa is still more than 2 times higher than its decadal upper trading channel line. For KC to replicate Cocoa, KC needs to reach 900 at first :). OJ and similar illiquid products like Rice, Oats, etc are for professionals mostly if risk is a respected factor. Daily volume will help to understand :).

They will never allow it to rise that much. Unlike Chocolate, Coffee is far more widely produced.

lol nope

Kindly, why?

176.000?! Lol, please lay off whatever substance you are on.

Closed own does not mean the bankrupt. Internet is a tricky thing :). Apr 22, 2024 Online platform Startupdetektor registered 658 new young companies in Q1 2024, compared with 562 in the final three months of 2023. The number of start-ups was also up year-on-year from Q1 2023, when 629 firms were founded.

:):):). It is not just closed companies for whatever reason have to be stated but newly opened companies as well. While the balance may be towards closed companies, the final figure would look differently: In the first quarter of 2023, roughly 33,100 larger businesses were established in Germany, a decrease of 5.5% year-over-year, according to the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). 33 x 4 = roughly 132k new companies ---> 176 - 132 = 44k. Besides LARGER businesses there SMALLER and much smaller businesses, etc :):):). And tons of new businesses got open in EU about 2021 in respond to COVID, some of them got reasonably closed as life got normalized. :):):) In 2023, approximately 568,000 people ventured into self-employment in Germany, a slight increase of 3% compared to the previous year, according to the KfW Entrepreneurship Monitor.

I'm bullish since 2018 on cyclical basis. In my view :) the final top is not in yet but I may be wrong like everybody else. The difference is that I'm based on long cycles and real physical data/science. As example, I expect that after summer 2025 (Solar cycle 25 peak should take place around that time) the global cooling will start and the weather will start changing rapidly. For SH and Brazil in particular it would :) mean lower temps in general and thus, high temps issue should go away. But on the other side, it may mean higher risk of frost and drought. It has nothing to do with me but with Grand Solar Minima cycle that started in 2020 and should end around 2053 :). Last one was a Maunder cycle and you may read what it was for NH, EU and NL :) specifically. In short, it suggest more anomalies going forward until the cycle went through its peak which would be around 2036 or so... For me and common sense wise :), more anomalies means more risk. There is very poor data about 1645-1715 climate in MG besides some colonial letters :) and jesuits books :) but they point to serious droughts and frosts. Again there was no coffee yet :) in Brazil during that period :)... As soon as March will be done, we'll understand more about total precipitation on AVERAGE and how it may be interpreted, etc. And my outlook for next two decades is not just for KC but for other agris and energies is the same. For sure rains will improve what is possible to improve, without the rains it would be real catastrophe indeed, but as example, 42mb of A in 2025 (if considered) will not add optimism at all. You may look at the weather data for MG or specific regions for 2018 and 2020 which provided record crops and to compare the temps, etc - it will make the picture more clear :).

I'm not a perma bull :), I'm a small bull until GSM will run its course. And I have no doubts that high price stimulates expansion and that rationing starts at some level. But rationing is not cancelling at all, rationing is balancing the supply/demand ratio until the problem is solved and last few hundreds of years have shown very clear that inflation :) does not stop people to consume the same products as the income grows :) too.

Same question to you Al: did you post an optimistic news story? We had a drought in the flowering, droughts a few days ago (which happened to improve despite the poor distribution of rains) and prices are above 350. Your news compared to current prices becomes manipulative (or at least an attempt at manipulation) for the simple fact that you have been totally wrong since 250.

Everything above the Volcafe predictions Will be a relax for the market

2mb over Volcafe number will move it to 6 :). Market operates mainly in USDA terms and is very conservative (big players) as it is based on statistical models when real exact data is impossible. 7% of IBGE correction applied to USDA 2023 45mb would give you 42mb more or less. After rains started, most likely this is the figure market keeps in mind until further notice :), assuming the loss that has happened and is irreversible.

Note, that 45mb as OFF 2023 A production supposed to point to ... record 2024 ON A production of 53 - 55mb and this was what market was expecting initially and that's why it went down to roughly 140...

It is not food in the sense that because of the lack of coffee you will not starve to death. This is true even in Brazil. ;) In general, Comrade Ro writes nonsense.

Are you really gonna say there is no poverty in your country? Wow I think if they knew who you are they would come to your house. Thats a blunt statement and big lie to throw out there. Watch your back.

In coffee regions, NO, and unlike you, I don't hide behind initials or name abbreviations. In fact, the invitation is still open, you should get to know Brazil, a screen doesn't always reflect reality.

that's because egg price dropped from 16 to 6 this month viriato... it is not hard just to follow charts. Cannot wait when coffee faith will be like this. Bubble needs to burst someday. Question is which day

The problem with eggs was local, affecting only the US. It was enough to expand imports and prices fell. In Europe, we have as many eggs as we need. You can buy 12 eggs for less than 3 euros.... With coffee the problem is different because the deficit is global. I ask again, where is the manipulation here?

Ro, while making the comparison the basis is important. For instance, if OJ at first reached roughly 2.5 of its upper decadal trading channel line value, for KC it would translate into roughly 3 x 2.5 = 7.5. What assumes that applying the same logic :)/criteria KC needs to reach roughly 7.5 level and then to drop like a boulder :). KC is far from there as of yet. In relation to lower channel line it would be 10 times its value what translates for KC into 5 and KC is not there yet either... Another point is the market share or in other words the liquidity. I don't know if you ever traded OJ, Rice, Oats, Old :) Lumber, etc but liquidity plays important role indeed for specs and at critical junctions it is super critical for obvious reason. Wheat is from another group but by all other factors it would be more reasonable comparison. However, Wheat will not be in your favor as before going down down :), Wheat (Chicago wheat) reached roughly double value of its decadal upper channel line what for KC would translate into roughly 6. :):):) Nobody knows where it will go and stop, etc but if you want to be correct with your comparison you should treat both subjects (or as many as you do) in the same fashion. Otherwise your comparison makes no sense.... :) Common sense, first of all :):):)...

We know that. Everybody knows that. No one cares. They just want coffee. And that's when specs make their wicked snarl.

What for they Will made It vintage?

Looks like we are heading at 400 again

does it?

Price grew 110% in 1 year. All the other commodities are heading back to their normal prices

So your only argument for the price drop is that coffee is expensive? You generally have no idea what is going on... Typical comrade!

Hello

Im not so sure, I think it will stay here 388-393 all day.

Going 420

Try to sell the trash ahead of harvest is common in agris. As per global warming, have you ever thought about the possibility of more humidity in atmosphere?

A question to Bruno and Rodrigo :): if March/April will fail to deliver quality rains, in your opinion, what can be the effect on 2026 crop ? (If you wouldn't mind to comment of course :)).

(Not all initial posts came through, so for Kenan: 1) I cited Mr. Mazzafera as he is easily discoverable online; 2) he is a scientst, PhD, agronomy specialist, etc - not me :); 3) he confirmed that loss that happened is ... irreversible; 4) he didn't specify the percentage, etc; 5) the talk is not about no coffee in 2025, the talk is about lower production vs 2023 on high temps basis, which basis is now widely admitted and known/accepted after 2024 crop issue (till May 2024 most players have been sure the crop is gonna set up a new record :). ))

I hope it will only be a moved peak of 395 from 11.3.

I hope it will only be a double top of 395 from 11.3.

if you are asking this forum, its too late

Rains were delivered in drip irrigation mode both from sky tubes into areas with highest density. If you think it`s the bittersweet symphony of chocolaty here, you will get surprised.

Hmm what about weather? Huge price surge that automatically destroys demand? Other countries who have record of record crops? New farmers who started late 2022 due to coffee price surge?

What about the weather, comrade Ro?

you dont are in shame to writhe so much nonsense?