ICE US Coffee C Futures - Dec 22 (KCc1)

162.30
+2.20(+1.37%)
  • Prev. Close:
    160.1
  • Bid/Ask:
    161.85/162.30
  • Day's Range:
    162.30 - 162.30
  • Type:Commodity
  • Group:Agriculture

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

What is your sentiment on ICE US Coffee C c1?
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(28831)
  • moneytimes. com. r/cafe-queda-nas-cotacoes-internacionais-pode-ser-revertida-logo-dizem-analistas/amp/
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    • I don't want to be impolite but I also wouldn't comment on something that isn't actually happening with my plants and seeing that it happens with neighbors' plants as well. I find it more impolite to call people a "liar".
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    • Without being rude either, the market takes care of showing who is DECEIVED, never a liar, don't be offended, nothing personal.
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    • remember @Jason with rains ? He only was DECEIVED
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  • CECAFE data today, continues in considerable volume.
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    • BRL +2%
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      • Shorts out?
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        • stop spamming dum.dum
          1
      • Oh oh, small backwardation again!
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        • Of course, we farmers have been expecting it - Maja is no majic. Lol.
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        • Did you also expect a drop from 240 to 150? Probably yes. Next time please inform us in advance. We would appreciate it. What's next? Is it better to buy or sell?
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      • Thus far, March (KCH3) only briefly below previous opening, trend is up. What's up? Lol.
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        • next crop is equal or emaller than crop 22, prepar for a sht small crop 3 years in a row
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          • Mgom. You have a good financial situation and you should drink good coffee, a brown roasted coffee that preserves the taste of the drink, this coffee is pure but has a lower yield than a dark roasted coffee, dark because it hides the impurities, dark because it gives a higher yield in preparation. It is the coffee that the lower class has always drunk and prefers because it yields more.
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          • *production and domestic consumption. (not production and supply)
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          • In short, more availability for consumption.
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        • what time KC opens tomorrow?
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          • Looking the volumes level, is actually very low Meaning lack interest/transaction at these prices. Short financing sellers are keeping the position, commercial are not keen to sell. Seem a quite waiting situation.
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            • Contango is back.
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          • Rains are coming, again
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            • @AgriMan Of course, along with an umbrella, as used from 08/25/22 (225 to 154)
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            • The waters help in the granation phase.
              1
            • The quality aspect will be exceptional: rainfall and low productivity = more uniform and heavier fruits.
              1
          • Another day with good report from Cecafe. Warehouses according to some are empty but Brazil export good volumes mainly arabica coffee. Miracle.
            2
            • Very good pass rate on ICE. Theory about old coffee in Queue was nothing but wrong.
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              • I always read your messages! You are often right! Do you think it will go up again?
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              • 25% fail to grade rate up today. 75% passable coffee from honduras/brazil
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              • Regarding this fast increase of ICE, seems like a movement from trade to move to contango rather great production/export of coffee and that is demostrated by cecafe that is representing an export of coffee in line with last year, very low compared to 2020 on year.In few word there is coffee to be exported but not so much compared other on year. Future price depend on next crop projection.
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            • The disappointing start that Brazil’s coffee exports have made to 2022-23 will extend for the rest of the season, landing the country with a second successive season of declining shipments, US officials said.The US Department of Agriculture’s Sao Paulo bureau slashed to 36.65m bags its forecast for Brazil’s coffee exports in 2022-23, on the country’s July-to-June marketing year basis, taking the figure 2.40m bags below the USDA’s official forecast.The downgrade also took the figure below the 39.69m bags in exports achieved last season, to the lowest since 2017-18, when volumes were sunk by a hit to robusta coffee production from successive years of drought.
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              • PA is weak today. Cecafe webpage is down again...
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                • Strong Cecafe data on their rescued mini site.
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              • FIBO retracement targets ...but this is opportunity to sell again...my buy are green so much from 159
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                • A 50% retrace off of our waterfall from 10 October woud bring us back to 182. Does not seem too much to ask for.
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                  • should be. but 172-175 seems tough to cross. will see
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                • Many consider USDA providing realistic figures. From June, 2022 report, some numbers:1) Crops: 18 - 65.9; 19 - 61.2; 20 - 69.3; 21 - 58.3; 22 - 64.6; total for 5 years = 319.3mb A+R;2) Brazil, total exports: 18 - 35.6; 19 - 40.7; 20 - 44.7; 21 - 40.6; 22* - 40; total for 5 years = 201.6mb A+R; 3) harvested area: 18 - 2060k, 19 - 2040k, 20 - 2100k, 21 - 2010k, 22 - 2020k ha; 4) domestic consumption 5 x 22 = 110mb; 5) years of crops - (5 years of exports+5 years of domestic consumption) = 319.3 - 201.6 - 110 = 7.7mb of ending stocks on basis 2017 ending stocks being ... zero. USDA specific figure for current ending stocks is about 6mb if remember correctly.
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                  • Noted. :) Sorry for dissapointment! :) I'm not trying to spread anything as I'm not agitating anyone to be bull or bear - I'm enjoying communication, a specially while sitting tight and waiting for entry :). Market is always right of course and anyone should have his own opinion.
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                  • I'll limit my audience :).
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                  • Don't get me wrong, I still look forward to your posts and will read them with pleasure! ;)
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                • Discount in spreads, clear sign that demand is decreasing.
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                  • Cheering for coffee producing countries: Equador, Mexico, Costa Rica, Brasil, Gana, Camaroes.
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                  • MGom MGomlol does Argentina produce any coffee? let's not mention that disaster..
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                  • Yes, produce "Arabica Saudita" coffee.
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                • it's trying to breack free
                  3
                  • 205 would be a perfect target! :)
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                  • 194 is a tough wall, it's where this crazy down move was validated, if this wave is extended I think 194 is as far as we go, (assuming 183 resistance don't stand on the way)
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                  • Also last time we broke 200 level to the down side it took 2 years + to retest 200
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                • straight to 1,90
                  4
                  • What a bummer
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                  • impossible to buy green coffee here in Brazil, differentials to wide, is cheaper to buy KC in ICE than buy coffee here. Enjoy the ride too 2,00
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                  • This is your story, however, someone delivered 500k bags to ICE ;) How it is possbile if there is impossible to buy coffee?
                    1
                • Cecafe still at good pace. ICE over 1mln stocks and queue combined and rising. Numbers are not bullish. Brazil still has stocks to export.
                  6
                  • That's the trick. It doesn't matter if it's expensive, what really matters is bringing the price down. And someone says that the stocks and queue are above 1ml to try to make believe there is too much coffee when the stocks are actually 531k. The rest is re-exported poor quality coffee, which is why it has not been certified.
                    1
                  • The acceptance rate for queued grains is high. What you say doesn't work.
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                  • Really? Keep selling :)
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                • Traders quiet thus far, why?!
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                  • Just enjoying the ride now
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                • long coffee, big short on orange juice
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                  • What your target on orange juice ?
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                • Cecafe still at good pace, how it is possible while warehouses in Brazil are empty?!
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                  • Long term drought has prolonged effect - it is well studied fact. Some trees die not immediately but within 3 - 4 - 5 years after as their growth process was fatally damaged. Not saying that all coffee trees, survived drought will die :), but they may never get back to previous productivity levels. Also it explains why more flowers turn into leaves but not the beans, defoliation, etc. Prunning and stumping may be not that effective on the trees, suffered longterm severe drought and recovery may take much longer, etc.
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                  • Viriato. His comment coincides with a concern of mine today, we have some very old plots where I see very little sprouting of the branches, some not and others yes. I'm trying to guess what caused it since the cultural practices are the same.🤔
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                  • Short Dude. Do you believe the market is down based on high exports or a big crop in '23? Just curiosity, if more people can comment thank you.
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                • Statistically weeks after FND mainly green.
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                  • You know the guy?
                    1
                  • Sorry, I have only weird connotations with Goehring, WW2 and so on...
                    1
                  • Good morning ShortDude. I don't understand, how much has been exported from June to here? I don't understand how, after 5 months of high exports, analysts base themselves on high inventories. Wasn't it to be based from February onwards if they remain high?
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