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US Coffee C Futures - Jul 24 (KCN4)

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Symbol
Exchange
Currency
KCDerivedUSD
KCc1ICEUSD
KCc2ICEUSD
KCc3ICEUSD
KCc4ICEUSD
KCc5ICEUSD
KCc6ICEUSD
KCc7ICEUSD
Currency in USD
Disclaimer
196.17
+0.97(+0.50%)
Closed

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

Ok guys, lets share some thoughts. What will happen coming weeks?
Andy Hecht? Avoid this guy, he is commodity permabull especially about coffee, not worth to read.
waiting for a correction to 220 and then long entry
Technically the long term uptrend is still intact, the 5th wave (fibo .382 retracement from 26 Jul high) which started at 172-175 "should" end around 256.5. Then I expect a big correction maybe to low 200sh, I don't know, depending on the fundamentals etc.
What time is the usda report coming out today? Thanks.
1500hrsus time
Thanks
Chicago or Eastcoast?
ICE stocks another 10k bags less. According to Cecafe till today in December only 800k bags physically exported.
Due to the number of certificates issued by CECAFE, + 11.1% m / m, it is clear that there is a logistical problem with shipments, whether by ships or containers, no lado of coffee for nos.
I am on a personal note looking to take some profits soon from here and add to a new long term long trade I am starting in Silver and mining companies and mining
Dxy, USD and Bank of England interest rate has come in in to the coffee market today... And thus Brazilian
Japan green #coffee stocks to Sep 30 down 5.9% to 2,693 million bags, and down 9.9% in a 14-month low from 2.988M bags July 31 last year. Fast dwindling Brazil output vs booming demand & growing global supply deficit continue under pressure by solid CORE fundamentals!
📷Ryan Delany coffee stocks again disappointed with below avg drawdowns. #coffeemarket $JO taking it badly with bit of a sell off this am. To keep perspective, stocks in USA near 5-year lows and so is total Destination Stocks. Even still, market has to consider demand might be weak...📷Ryan Delany coffee stocks again disappointed with below avg drawdowns. #coffeemarket $JO taking it badly with bit of a sell off this am. To keep perspective, stocks in USA near 5-year lows and so is total Destination Stocks. Even still, market has to consider demand might be weak...
I am happy with my positions as they are but if I was not all set, price action looks good for a long add here, 235.8
ICE certified arabica #coffee stocks fell to 1,563,834 bags Dec 15, down from 2,161,675 bags Sep 8 and after seeing relatively stable range between 1.6M-1.606M bags last few weeks. European green stocks down 11.6% to 13.322M bags Oct 31 on year;
they were stable for 10 days because of 100.000 pending stocks where consumend this time fyi
Good point. As quick as the hammered supply chain could deliver to clearing stock was hoovered up and reserves went down.
-88 Bulish
sorry wrong treat.
A lot of bulls wanted $3 quickly and frustrated that it didn't happened yet. The answer to this is BRL expansion within last two decades.
Anyone who will look at monthly chart will see Momentum, Money Flow, ROC, RSI, Stoch and specs longs being at high levels. Correction is perfect.
Initial estimate for 2021 Arabica was about 36m bags. CONAB printed 31, I like round numbers, 30m bags. Thus, drought produced shortage of initial estimate of about 15%. For 2022 A crop it would be reasonable to estimate 10% of shortage due to drought and 10% shortage due to frost. If average 2022 estimate would be 40m bags of A, then 2022 A crop looks like 32m bags. So, the number between 30m and 32m bags for next A crop looks reasonable, keeping in mind that harvest is far away still.
A conservative range would be 30-35m bags of A for 2022 crop.
In my view, it would be more logical to suppose that CONAB (as USDA) sees as one of its primary functions do not create the panic in market, and for that matter, it always based on higher estimates but not lower ones.
Dec 13 gap almost filled ;)
instead 14.30 todays gap filled
big correction haha
nice technical moviment today closing the gap and closing almost flat, lets check next days, but seems a bullish candlle in the dairy chart
It is amazing to see that degree of untrust towards Brasilian institutions. In fact, USDA uses a lot of CONAB and other local sourcers to produce its report. :) It reminds me the untrust towards Brasilian weather services before and during the frost. :)
There are reasons for that.
magicians!
capoeira con artists
USDA is coming.
Tomorrow USDA will release the coffee report World Markets and Trade will be an excellent expectation for the 2022 coffee crop
When Brazilian institutions talking about the production of 66 million bags for the year 22 this means that the actual production will not be less than 75 million bags
Just look at the exports, going up every month.
We must add 20% to any estimates from any Brazilian institution, especially conab
At least
Brazil crop estimate increased!!
Collaps comming.
Healthy correction :).
*BREAKING; Brazil's Arabica #coffee crop in 2021 ends sharply down 35.5% at 31.42 million bags, Conab - the official Brazilian Crop Supply Agency - says in final report for 2021-harvest. Robusta harvest end up 13.8% at 16.29 million bags.
Attention has to be paid to on and off season crops. 2021 was off season crop, previous off season crop year was 2019, its total number by CONAB was 49.31m bags.
 Actually 2021 harvest was the off-cycle, but even for a low-yielding crop this was MUCH more severely affected by stress, drought, frost, more drought, water deficit, hail storms... next 2022 is supposed to on-cycle, but cld very likely end below 2021, smallest in last 10 years!
BRAZIL WATCH: Brazil's Conab says 2021 coffee harvest ends down 24.4% at 47.72 million bags in final review of drought and frost-hit harvest, ending as one of smallest #coffee crops from in 10 years and compares to 63M bags in 2020
USDA 56 M?
Conab will release its 4th bulletin on 2021 crop shortly. :)
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