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US Coffee C Futures - Jul 24 (KCN4)

Real-time capital.com
Symbol
Exchange
Currency
KCDerivedUSD
KCc1ICEUSD
KCc2ICEUSD
KCc3ICEUSD
KCc4ICEUSD
KCc5ICEUSD
KCc6ICEUSD
KCc7ICEUSD
Currency in USD
Disclaimer
223.28
-4.82(-2.11%)
Closed

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

Huge volume today on etfs short at the peak 219-220….i bet in another leg up but maybe big ones knows something more in advance lol
upward move very close to end, 224 will short it again if it ever reach that level
Suddenly they will find new warehouses full of coffee? Export will grow and ice stocks start to rise?
no more fuel left to run hedge funds gettin rid of coffee lol
2 weeks of cold coming, todays forecast shows very small risk in the coffee areas, how ever if it moves a litlle bit can get very dangerous
250 or more in JanFeb after significant export drop confirmation.
of july, not JanFev
July 2023? Don't think we have to wait whole year to go to 250$
of course not july 2022. I already informed you that the months of July in Crop Year Brazilian exports are low. Numbers !!! not my opnion.
Concern about lower coffee yields in Brazil is underpinning coffee prices after Somar Meteorologia Monday reported that Minas Gerais received no rain last week. ICE monitored arabica coffee inventories Tuesday fell to a new 23-year low of 703,310 bags.
Local forecasts point to a small amount of rain for Friday or Saturday followed by frost.
No Frost nor rain. In all reliable models.
Local forecasts point to 8mm of rain for Friday and 4° for Sunday, frost in lower areas.
Target for bulls to close day above 215. Today or tomorrow.
By turtle step, despite the various problems, ICE Stocks DW, CECAFE DW, drought IN BRAZIL, Rains in Colombia, delayed harvest in Brazil, crop failure in Brazil...etc...etc...etc. ..
FED rates this week.
And everyone knows that. Much smaller Brazilian export for 2022/23 than 2021/22 might be a surprise for many.
ICE number continue decreasing ~interesting
in this case, look for BRL
Cecafe data for today is very interesting. 20% drop MoM, at this pace we are going to have meanigful drop YoY too.
Meanwhile it keeps raining here in Colombia
Good for farming rice ;)
Coming soon: riceppuccino :) :) :)
Now it should easily reach 216 after that i would wait before selling immediately….maybe it could push much higher
a little much higher….lol
i was wrong it looks like more easy first gap 199 cant see any chances of glory for commodities bulls before FED decision on rates
Chances of glory for crappy coffee bulls are fading away big crash just starting lol
It may even be in the USA, in Brazil there has never been deflation for industrialized goods. I don't believe there will be now.
Rodrigo, there is no deflation in US. :) There is huge inflation and everywhere.
I know, is that here they talk about deflation as if the products on the shelves would plummet, that the coffee will return to levels of 100, 140. For a producer it is difficult to have this vision because, if he works at the average production or slightly above ,these values ​​do not cover the costs, mainly with climatic adversities.
Technically, the failed breakout attempt at 218.90 holds control of bears in the medium term.
Eye on CECAFE.
What is so important at 218.9?
SMA on the daily chart. After touching 195 and fast recovery, it was an important resistance.
216 before further down so easy
it looks like they will smash it down first
BRL strong which should support #JO price. - Something strange is going on with PA today. - Except for GAP close @200 it´s hard to see and make any good reasoning for the weak price of today.
But gap 216 is also calling….better to stay flat lol
Germany and the Euro Zone, indicate that activity in part of Europe is contracting; UK keeps indexes above the 50-point line
what's happening ?
gap dw ?
gap is watching you lol
.
The European Central Bank (ECB) raised the key interest rate by 0.5%, the first increase since 2011, in an attempt to contain the soaring inflation in the euro zone. Demand for products can be affected, including coffee, of course
https://lolamarket.com/es/en/tienda/mercadona/coffees-cocoas-infusions/coffees/mezcla-de-cafe-molido-n4-paquete-de-250-gr/ sometimes cheaper than 2eu
The demand for coffee is not limited to consumption in homes.
Short dude, maybe chickpea coffee but not coffee coffee
712,817 bags. Not a huge drop, yet...
Canal Agro: "Since September 2020, the La Niña phenomenon has been influencing the global climate and causing concern to farmers. Despite having weakened in February and May, the cooling of surface waters in the region of the Equator Line in the Pacific Ocean began to be recorded by the meteorological monitoring services in April. Typically, the event can last from nine months to two years. However, the change in the world wind regime — important for climate balance — is being affected by global warming, making the phenomenon last until February 2023, as indicated by the American Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). La Niña in the autumn quarter was the most intense since the beginning of the historical series maintained by NOAA. Over the period, the average temperature in the Pacific was -1.1°C, compared to -1.2°C recorded in 1950. Such a low number between March and May has only been recorded six times in the last few decades."
Oscar, if I'm not mistaken, La Ninha increases the volume of rainfall near the equator while decreasing at greater distances from the equator
So, z bottom line - COFFEE PRODUCTION might be affected down - due to excess rainfall and associated pests, etc (assuming 'increases ... rainfall' implies above normal)?
Islt is happening. Colombia has smaller crop due to excessive rains.
Wednesday, a new low of 718,617 bags
And CECAFE certs are now 17% lower MoM. At this pace only 2.6mln certs in July.
Wednesday, a new low of 718,617 bags
Thus, the first dive below 200 was proven to be short lived. And warehouses can be not that full simply due to somehow lower production :). And local ferts price has to be watched carefully: usually, when it goes up a lot :), farmers reduce the application. Less ferts --> smaller next season crop.
We can don't forget, that exports of Brasil and world,  may also decrease due to reduced demand, because global inflation.
demand will never end, but it may stop growing or decreasing
Mgom so you basically agree with me that KC is too cheap comparing to physical market. That's why ICE stocks going down at fast pace.
Don't forget here in Colombia the harvest will be very low too because excessive rains. Very Sad Brazil needs rains and we need dry weather.
ICE monitored arabica coffee inventories Tuesday fell to a new 22-year low of 727,222 bags.
And zero bags pending. KC is too cheap. No one wants to deliver to ICE at such price.
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