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US Coffee C Futures - Jul 24 (KCN4)

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Symbol
Exchange
Currency
KCDerivedUSD
KCc1ICEUSD
KCc2ICEUSD
KCc3ICEUSD
KCc4ICEUSD
KCc5ICEUSD
KCc6ICEUSD
KCc7ICEUSD
Currency in USD
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196.17
+0.97(+0.50%)
Closed

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

Interesting article with CNC taking a side. I am using google translate because it is in Portuguese:  https://www.noticiasagricolas.com.br/noticias/cafe/330922-cnc-especulacao-penaliza-o-produtor-de-cafe-brasileiro.html#.Y1YeI3ZByUk
Dow Jones) -- 0910 ET - Brazilian agricultural consultancy Safras & Mercado cut its estimate for the country's 2022 coffee crop to 57.3M 132-pound bags. The group's previous estimate was for a crop of 58.2M bags and its first forecast was for 61.1M bags. Brazil is the world's biggest producer and exporter of coffee, and the 2022 crop was hit by droughts and frosts, reducing production. Safras estimates the country produced 34.6M bags of the more sought-after arabica variety of coffee and 22.7M bags of robusta beans.
Viriate. You're absolutely right. As the saying goes: "until you explain that a ********s nose is not an electrical outlet"....
Viriate. You're absolutely right. As the saying goes: "until you explain that a ******s nose is not an electrical outlet"....
Viriate. You're absolutely right. As the saying goes: "until you explain that a ****s nose is not an electrical outlet"....
Bears putting up a fight. Looks like this will be continued next week. But the worm has turned in commodities going to be hard to keep this massively oversold coffee down
 In your opinion, why ?
1.Short Commercials did not sell, (no panic even breaking previous lows) lowest gross short in 8 weeks.2. Roaster extended coverage heavily, largest coverage increase.3. Spec longs are below average. Average gross is always 23K, even in period of low priced.4. Finally new shorts sold at the lows, below 200 with notice around the corner.
yep. Big money likes to target COTs like that. Commodity trading 101
194.x is first target ahead
Let‘s see close first;)
Another day another face ripping rally 😁
Only above 213.00 can bulls breathe.
Everything but coffee is nicely green. Bad place to be?
As it was mentioned, cafe has life of its own... :). Have a nice weekend everyone!
A question to the forum: if the weather will not dissapoint, what A crop you expect in 2023 ? Answer may be the range, but not wider than 5mb :).
See that in practice that 23 we are in negative biannuality, but we will have plants that were of high production in 23 that were cut because of frost and plants that were supposed to have production 0 in 23 due to the negative cycle, all of them produced but in smaller quantities because their size and size are small (and more susceptible to past droughts).
See that in practice that 23 we are in negative biannuality, but we will have plants that were of high production in 23 that were cut because of frost and plants that were supposed to have production 0 in 23 due to the negative cycle, all of them produced but in smaller quantities because their size and size are small (and more susceptible to past droughts).
Thanks everyone who's commented!!!
Good bounce!..interim resistance at 194.x..but not strong..fibo support stays at around 187
Not 100mb, 150mb :). (Started feeling a bit like Santa ...)
Maya suddenly disappears when the price goes down and $3 disappears from sight. As usual.
May be she's re-checking the sources :) ?
gogogo baby dont loose power :D
Drought, rains, flowers and rains again. The production loves this competition.
i invest the same way you do - the more it goes down the more i load up....but you need to have balls and deeep pockets ;)
i love the smell of coffee in the morning
yes takes conviction and ***and know how to trade and shut out the noise from those who dont have a clue to trade commodities
This is painful to watch 😪
u can take a cup of coffe
Lol, yeah, at least there is no shortage of coffee
Nevertheless, some brave roasters took a bit of ICE bags today.
Volume of last 7 trading days in March contract is about 100k. Open Interest is about 70k.
Bounce is around the corner. :) COT will be interesting.
 after so many red days is due, but 200 might be now too far away.
200 is a mirage maybe next decade lol
let it ride.. let it ride..
producers in brazil have left the market, nobody sells for less than 2.30. soon exports will fall drastically, there is no coffee left in brazil, production in 2022 is no more than 50 million bags of Arabica + Robusta, rabobank said it will produce 68 million, an error in saying this. 2023 the new fruits are already aborting due to droughts, a lot of turmoil in the market from now on
Yes. For sure. There will be no coffee. Again.
anddo they have storage 4 that ?
Exact opposite situation. While the price breaks supports, farmers who were hoping to sell their stocks at $3 are now pouring in their supplies to take advantage of the last days of high prices.
producers in brazil have left the market, nobody sells for less than 2.30. soon exports will fall drastically, there is no coffee left in brazil, production in 2022 is no more than 50 million bags of Arabica + Robusta, rabobank said it will produce 68 million, an error in saying this. 2023 the new fruits are already aborting due to droughts, a lot of turmoil in the market from now on
Rabobank's forecast is funny, but cecafe data shows that average price, paid for a pound of A exported within 2022, was about $1.82 (if I remember correctly). Or about $240 for a bag.
Did you know that hail damage can only really be seen after the coffee has been harvested?
Oscar. Now just again another hailstorm. Do you have this problem in Colombia?
I had a hail storm in July 2000. It usually happens when there is a strong storm after a very sunny day. Apparently there was not much damage, but at harvest time about half of the kernels had necrotic tissue
The days are warmer here and the frequency of hailstorms is higher. The rains have fallen in shorter periods, causing damage to the soil and leaching of fertilizers.
What a faceripping rally initiated from strong support ;)
I guess you can't say ***ed
p i $ $ e d
Purp. I think if it falls below that, it's us who's going to be ****ed.😬
What do you think of the weather in Colombia? I'm pretty sure shortdude and mgom will say that excessive rains are good for coffee.
No coffee plants actually hate water.
 Are you sure?
A signal ?!! :) :) :) "Whoever loves coffee - drink, please! If coffee has risen in price - well, sorry! I can offer milk, tea. I don't drink coffee and I'm alive and well!" said Lukashenka.
If 190 defends, +200 is so fast
 Like 194 few days ago ;)
commodities are extremly difficult to predict a bottom. I have stated where i think its going. Do you have the bslls to put your number out there?
 AT gave hope that the bottom we have at 194, coffee was already oversold. 190 even more so. But to be clear, I mean a temporary low and not a change in trend.
Hello hello, new trader here, october=pumpkin spice latte= line goes up :)
Man they gor nuts over thst stuff. Never had one 🤷🏽‍♂️
I wont write again..Investors who expect 90s again will see these levels only at their dreams shortly:)
Anyone who compares the current situation to two years ago shouldnt trade commodities imo. 2 years is s lifetime ago in commodities. One only needs to look to crude as an example
 Coffee price was exactly the same as it is today in 1980. 2 years ago, try 40 years ago. Zoom out, it's historically hovered around $100 - $150.
We wont see demand crash due to recession..supply should be watched closely
you were writing the same before 90-260 rally:))
lol
One in 100 years drought and then frost were the catalysts and the market was in the end of a downcycle. That matters :).
Now it's just watching with curiosity, when the whole market is rising, robusta is rising, BRL is stronger, and Arabica at such oversold levels shows no desire to rebound.
170 (fibo support) may be tested but this does not mean drastic fall though
Coffee is less elastic product than for example cotton..coffee is must in almost all daily life..so do not expect drastic falls during recession times..supply conditions play greater role
True. But supply ( export wise) depends on crop and stocks. If stocks are low/very low, then, at some point, it should start to be reflected in the cecafe numbers and that will be a solid material signal for the market, a specially, if this will hapenn at the time of low ICE stocks. Giant ship needs time to turn and cycle is not done yet, etc, but stable export (monthly/quarterly aproximated) of a good amount of A (as 33mb for example) tells the market that somehow Brazil still has its magic powder, and while many will still stay cautious, we'll not have a panic buying. What is part of the spike move.
Speaking fundamentals. Technically, we're about to have a good bounce at least...
 Spreads are smaller and smaller, every day. You do not get that we already had coffee rally and this is over. Market is looking forward for next better crop and with current comfortable situation with stocks there is no reason to pay more for coffee.
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