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US Coffee C Futures - Jul 24 (KCN4)

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Symbol
Exchange
Currency
KCDerivedUSD
KCc1ICEUSD
KCc2ICEUSD
KCc3ICEUSD
KCc4ICEUSD
KCc5ICEUSD
KCc6ICEUSD
KCc7ICEUSD
Currency in USD
Disclaimer
198.15
+1.50(+0.76%)
Closed

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

Oversold correction, but it will still trend downwards. don't jump on yet.
First SLs are above 180, still far away.
I'm not trading like you guys, I'm booking coffee contracts, I bought a few at 168, waiting to get more. I bought myself until March, hoping the crop is better than expected and I can book up for the rest of the year.
Long awaited +10% day ?
wanted to write l u l instead of lol
:)
Necessary correction, after continus drop of -28% in oct22
what will be a new formation??
I am not expert, but I see in forecast 7-8C, rain and strong wind in coffee areas. Machado, Pocos de Caldas, etc and surroundings. Any jeopardy for perfect next crop or everything is ok?
The problem also is, that it is niot typical for November month and as it usually is with the weather, at some spot temperature may go couple of points lower, etc. Nobody knows until it happened for sure, but there is some risk. For those, who believes in a giant perfect crop, it doesn't mean much, for those, who believes in smaller crop, it means the risk of even a bit more smaller crop. :)
at some spots*
Just a cold hip out of season
Brazil wakes up with many uncertainties, the political scenario cannot be trusted, Russia could end the fertilizer agreement, this would directly affect production, we have a cold front that could bring intense cold to the coffee area, even without frosts to plant in the cold stops growing, harming the flowering of November, which will be few. the government can limit exports with high rates, whoever has coffee to export, do it quickly, many uncertainties are coming
In a year or so, Russian ferts industry can look completely different from now, due to the war outcome. In 1983 nobody believed in the collapse of USSR, now nobody believes in the collapse of Russia. Russia, by the way :), is finishing its big cycle from 1917. There is a chance that resolution will be very painful...
200 come back.
Also with that jailman Lula for president ?
It's a shame, Brazilians already have a reputation as cheaters, now it's gotten worse. People with a short memory and easy to deceive with promises. Agro cries.
It's a shame, Brazilians already have a reputation as cheaters, now it's gotten worse. People with a short memory and easy to deceive with promises. Agro cries.
Mygon. Good Morning. With the result of our elections, what do you think the dollar quotes will look like?
@Rodrigo Faria, good morning.In short, political change from the North Pole to the South or from the South to the North, whichever you prefer. A lot will have to be adjusted, until then, there will be a lot of turmoil in the dollar.
I wanted to hear your thoughts. The dollar is very much embraced by coffee growing with prices on the stock market and production costs. Market fearful of political changes (dollar up), political promises of cheap food = dollar down (best case scenario). Agro Brasileiro has the ** in hand because one of the promises is cheap food with higher taxes on Brazilian exports.
Sorry, but is difficult to make predictions about the dollar, what I can say is that we will have turbulence.
I'l risk going long one here up to 180 with stop @ 170 for oversold retracement
maybe i'm too cautios but i'm out of my long position...
soon the bulls will come, and will fail sold..
there may be a strong reaction from the market as soon as the numbers arrive, October's exports were supposed to be above 3.5 million. were around 2.5 million compared to November below 2 million, inventories have dropped, producers are not buying fertilizers because the price has dropped, it could get even worse
ok but a working day is very likely not to reach 3 mb. in the 2020 crop, which was a large crop, it was 4.2 mb. they say that 22 was a great harvest
when are number arriving?
Numbers are accesible and updated every day.
tell me reason???
why is down coffee price???
Because the market saw a good flowering in Brazil and rushed thinking that it could have a good harvest in 2023, but the flowering did not take well, it will produce well below, there was a flowering for the next week, but because of the cold weather it will not happen. ie small production for 2023, below 50 mb. stocks will run out
why is down coffee price
During 1992 - 1997 cycle, after reaching 265 area (what was a second wave up), KC corrected back to 90 area, after what it reversed and produced new high around 320 level. 90c was just about 6c higher than first wave high of 84c.
Sam, I lost the bet while ago and I admitted it and congratulated you with the victory!!! I perfect with the fact that people make money on shorts, I even consider short plays being much more sofisticated and risky and so on, etc. To me the bull is well and alive until 140 level is breached, but it's my perception and I'm not agitating for it. It's normal that different people interpret same thing differently and so on... I'm fine while market is going down cause I'm big fan of stop loss (learnt hard way :)) and as usually, market can go much lower or higher than one expects, etc. What amazes me is the fact, that people don't believe that drought, frost, hail, less ferts, etc do not support the idea of record crop and that people, when it comes to Brazil, consider easy any huge number not bothering themselves with the explanation from where that number may come. :)
I wish everyone to have a great weekend and to be profitable !!!
thanks, I'm just joking with you.. I took entire summer so I wasn't really on here at all last few months
ICE roughly 385k and 82k pending.
Weekly momentum is most oversold within 5 years. Weekly ROC reached reversal level. COT didn't dissapoint either, although commercials are not net long yet. :)
Today could be a capitulation day. :)
Big volume, big move.
Transitioning funds from long to shorted or zeroing, out positions creates a great opportunity.
It all starts with the rains of September.Now i just watching the market
there is this gap from Sept 2020 or Oct 2020 that is around 110-112... yeah we might bounce.. yeah we might zigzag.. yeah oversold... but eventually we will close that gap in 2023.. so let gravity do its physics..
kc only down 15 percent year to date... still doing better than apple... flush those bloated beans..backbreaking month is here
Lady Michelle Smith is bullish KC
how's 154 looking
lol.... let it ride..
I studied in the past the speed of assets and when its too fast it could bounce in a strong way so i m sure it wont be a straight way
Surely a proper sized daily move to react on.
Booked some contracts :) happy roaster here
missed the trend they whyenter in the middle of trend wait 1XX
100
what will goes next plese suggest ??
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