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US Coffee C Futures - May 23 (KCK3)

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179.42 +5.12    +2.94%
24/03 - Closed. Currency in USD ( Disclaimer )
Type:  Commodity
Group:  Agriculture
Unit:  1 Pound
  • Prev. Close: 179.42
  • Open: 174.25
  • Day's Range: 172.65 - 179.82
US Coffee C 179.42 +5.12 +2.94%

US Coffee C Futures Analysis

 
The latest analysis and reports about the US Coffee C Futures.
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Mercury KG
Mercury KG Mar 24, 2023 6:39PM ET
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Short Dude, you haven't a clue.
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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude Mar 24, 2023 6:39PM ET
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What am I not aware of? About the fact that a small farmer can be in trouble while a large mechanized farm is wonderfully profitable? Tip. It's the big farms that determine prices because they produce more.
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MGom MGom
MGom Mar 24, 2023 3:29PM ET
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CECAFE +121.7 bagsCerts, average in week around 142.2k bags Certs/day. Coffee migrating from producer warehouses
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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude Mar 24, 2023 3:29PM ET
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For sure we are not going to beat March 2022 - 3,8mln, yet we can finish at 3mln or 3,4mln, both numbers are still possible.
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Carlo Alberto Asioli
Carlo Alberto Asioli Mar 24, 2023 3:29PM ET
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I always read your comments! In which website can I see bags certs? Thanks
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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude Mar 24, 2023 3:29PM ET
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Cecafe website. Isn't it obvious?
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MGom MGom
MGom 16 hours ago
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3.0 / 3.4 M bags meets the target needed to meet the U S D A projection of 36.5M bags for 22/23 cycle.
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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 3 hours ago
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Till end of June we still have some time.
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MGom MGom
MGom Mar 24, 2023 1:02PM ET
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BRL 5.2473 -0,92%
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Mar 24, 2023 12:26PM ET
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Fun fact about consumption. We should separate the growth in bags per year from cups per year, as capsules made a big bang. Standard 2 cups (die tasse) italian stove coffee maker needs much more coffee than is in 2 original nespresso capsules. It means nothing in terms of beans production -consumption balance, but it says a lot about rising consumption in cups and rising popularity of the drink itself. (From 2021 research over 300mil capsules are used in UK annualy... ) And capsules market is growing fast...
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Mar 24, 2023 12:26PM ET
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Standart portion per cup before capsules was suggested as 10 - 12gm, capsules (NES) - 6 - 7gm. As example, 300,000,000 cups x 0.004kg/cup diff = 1,200,000.00kg diff = 20k (60kg) bags. Or additional 1,200,000.00kg : 0.006kg per cup = 200,000,000 cups, consumed at the same bags consumption rate. It is a rough example, but it illustrates that popularity only goes up...
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Rodrigo Faria
Rodrigo Faria Mar 24, 2023 12:26PM ET
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A very clear illustration of this is that the old-fashioned way (strained coffee) the main consumer is the "kitchen sewage".
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Mar 24, 2023 10:38AM ET
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New technologies, hybrids, management provided higher productivity to agrosector as a whole and coffee was left behind. But at some point transitional ove higher occures and for many reasons. Look at wheat as example (it's just one of many): after trading for about 30 years within 200 - 400 range, it moved higher about 2006 and since then it's trading within wider and higher range. This is what most likely is happening to coffee: from 50 - 150 range it may move towards 150 - 250 range, etc. Big mehanized farms have incredible productivity and low cost production, but they are still depended on the weather and input prices :). A good example also is banana chart fr last 30 years. Bananas are one season plant but they ferts/chemicals very intensive, weather very dependable, cheap labor dependable, new varieties are more resistant but fungus also transforms constantly...
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Mar 24, 2023 10:38AM ET
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coffee was NOT left behind ***
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Mar 24, 2023 10:38AM ET
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By the way, Rodrigo switched to eucaliptus at the time when the price was around 50c :). Around 2018/19, basing on open sources, minimum cost of production of AR for average small farmer (7 - 10ha) in Brazil was about 120c, many studies were showing higher cost, if to include side labor, mortgaged land, leased machines, etc (big mehanized farms were about 75c or so). 10ha x 30b/ha x (150c paid to grower - 120c cost of production) x 132 lbs = 300 x $0.3 x 132 = $11880 per year. Within last 20 years 150c to growers was not very common in Brazil... :)
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Mar 24, 2023 10:20AM ET
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Instant coffee got serious competition: instant beer. No buzz as of yet, but it is promissed soon :)...
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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude Mar 24, 2023 9:28AM ET
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Friday should be red. Very confusing.
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MGom MGom
MGom Mar 24, 2023 9:28AM ET
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BRL
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Mercury KG
Mercury KG Mar 23, 2023 7:18PM ET
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Short dude, you probably still think slavery is also an acceptable way of life?
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Rodrigo Faria
Rodrigo Faria Mar 23, 2023 7:18PM ET
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And it's not the worst thing in the world (a 100 at current costs is yes), have you ever visited a farm in the south of mines? I invite you and you will see how things are not as you imagine: family farming, land and hills that make other crops impossible, most do not even do cost spreadsheets and growing coffee is not like soybeans and corn, it is an investment of years that does not if abandoned from one year to another, many producers drive a popular car and have more expensive machinery than their car and house together.
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Rodrigo Faria
Rodrigo Faria Mar 23, 2023 7:18PM ET
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This month our organization received a visit from those responsible for purchasing our coffee in Switzerland, in their visit to the crops he reported that Brazil (mainly in the south of Minas Gerais) is very different from what the news shows there (large farms and mechanized).
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Rodrigo Faria
Rodrigo Faria Mar 23, 2023 7:18PM ET
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Just to point out, a large part of the machinery is financed with maturities of over 5 years, reaching 10 by the government.
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Rodrigo Faria
Rodrigo Faria Mar 23, 2023 7:18PM ET
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Another example is that 20 years ago we abandoned it and switched part of the coffee to eucalyptus, at the time there was good demand for wood for pulp in the region. Result: plantations have increased so much that our eucalyptus is still there, it is unfeasible at current prices and because we are in the mountains, nobody wants to buy at the right price.
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Jorg Gehrmann
Jorg Gehrmann Mar 23, 2023 7:18PM ET
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ShortDude ShortDudeof course it is not slavery, it is a choise many farmers had taken… my parents told me always coffee prices are like lottery; my opinion is always be prepared for bad years and combine coffee with other products to be succesfull in farming.
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MGom MGom
MGom Mar 23, 2023 3:43PM ET
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CECAFE +205.8K bags, back on track, after yestarday. Estimating exports of 3.19 M bags for mar23.
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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude Mar 23, 2023 1:56PM ET
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25,5k bags disapeared from ICE today. Bearish as it is much less than 50k!
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