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US Coffee C Futures - Jul 23 (KCN3)

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180.75 -1.95    -1.07%
- Closed. Currency in USD ( Disclaimer )
Type:  Commodity
Group:  Agriculture
Unit:  1 Pound
  • Prev. Close: 182.70
  • Open: 182.62
  • Day's Range: 180.33 - 184.78
US Coffee C 180.75 -1.95 -1.07%

US Coffee C Futures Analysis

 
The latest analysis and reports about the US Coffee C Futures.
Petros Steriotis
U.S. Coffee March 30 Preview By Petros Steriotis - Mar 29, 2020

U.S. Coffee made a bottom one year ago and has been in a different universe than most risk assets. However, the weekly Fibonacci resistance levels seem to be a bit too much for now with the last week...

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US Coffee C Futures Discussions

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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 22 hours ago
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All KC spikes happened due to weather Disaster of some sorts, no D - no spike.In 2018 rough production cost for A (Brl) was considered about $1.25/more. Around 2008 USDA’s average production cost was about $1.25.In June 1998 KC fell below 1.25 and was staying under till October 2007 or so. ICO, rounded, A+R production, mb: 37 in 98, 48 in 99, 48 in 02, 48 in 06, 39 in 07. No rise in production from 99 to 07.Around Oct 07 price rised over $1.25 and was staying higher till Oct 17 or so. ICO, rounded, A+R, mb: 52 in 08, 55 in 13, 57 in 16, 53 in 17. And 2 record crops ON 18, ON 20. Production was rising while price was rising/staying above the level. Around Jan 2018 price went below 125 and was under about 3 years - 3 times less than within previous cycle, new cyclical low was higher.even after two record crops in a row. On adjusted to 2018 basis (USDA), 2020 A crop did not produce new high/had lower yield.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 22 hours ago
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Consumption last 10y was rising about 3mb/y - current rate is nothing exotic. 3mb x 3y = 9mb, 6y - 18mb (!). Thus, 21+22+23 = 9mb more in consumption. For healthy stocks/usage this number should be reflected in stocks/production. GCA stopped publishing after 30 years or so. GCA - privet club to benefit members, they suffer the most when price suddenly spikes as their margin drops, hedges crash… GCA didn’t stop during previous cycles, why now ? Can they foresee something (reasonable probability) and take preventive measures? Physical traders now: 1) there is plenty of coffee hoarded, price will drop after harvest to 120/100; 2) (!) last year trading houses were struggling to make profit. Comments from the houses unlikely can be other than record crop is coming...Strong El Niño was never beneficial for coffee production and Brazil is not only origin. But only Brazil was showing tremendous growth last decade, no other origin the story can be told.
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 19 hours ago
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Nobody knows if expected El Nino will come strong or not (moderate/week considered beneficial) but some weather people draw a lot of parallels, basing on current data and comparison with previous strong ones. No guarantee that GSM will make El Nino stronger but GSM is known as producing weather anomalies/disasters. Unless real ha/density would be added, it is hard to see new record crop also next year but not hard to see potential weather risks that may come instead.
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 19 hours ago
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A specially, if price will drop to 120/100 level :).
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 19 hours ago
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Last low can be retested and until it's broken in a sure manner, to me it is still in uptrend :). However, to be comfortable, current pullback would need to stop within 155 - 175 range :). Friday's cecafe shown 1430mb A vs 2129mb same day last month. Cecafe knows its business :) and month is not done but current :) gap at least shows hesitation :).
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 18 hours ago
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Cecafe*** - sealed bags (not certs)
ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude May 26, 2023 2:33PM ET
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ICE below 600k!
Oscar Correa
Oscar Correa May 26, 2023 2:33PM ET
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And cecafe 80.399 🤔
MGom MGom
MGom May 26, 2023 2:33PM ET
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below 600k,  and ?
ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude May 26, 2023 2:33PM ET
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ICE down. Cecafe slow and good below USDA forecast. Robusta up again. This is bearish for KC?
MGom MGom
MGom 21 hours ago
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ShortDude ShortDude imagine if it was bearish, at what level would we be? USDA os comming to clear this.
Robin Tordoff
Robin Tordoff May 26, 2023 9:29AM ET
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Nice short coming here. 182, should break, hedge in place.
MGom MGom
MGom May 26, 2023 9:29AM ET
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if break 180.60 ... SL's may be triggered
Sam Houston
Sam Houston May 25, 2023 7:07PM ET
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hi..
ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude May 25, 2023 7:07PM ET
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Hellou
ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude May 25, 2023 1:55PM ET
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11k bags less on ICE. Good pace. Can be totally ignored?
ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude May 25, 2023 1:55PM ET
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70k cecafe only.
MGom MGom
MGom May 25, 2023 1:55PM ET
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Average of 4 days of this week, around 134k and may23 month 113k/day
MGom MGom
MGom May 25, 2023 1:55PM ET
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For the month of may23, we will have 3 business days more than the month of apr23. Remembering that the average Certs/day so far on may23 is 134k.
Tuula Just
Tuula Just May 25, 2023 1:00PM ET
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hold your patience near 181.70...once again after area is done we go 158 zone.
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MGom MGom
MGom May 25, 2023 1:00PM ET
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Directly.
ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude May 25, 2023 1:00PM ET
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We have good demand for beans from ICE.
Tuula Just
Tuula Just May 25, 2023 1:00PM ET
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115 zone. what moves market?dreams and selectove thinking....looking only info what fits in picture.... 115 with ups and down ...very clear .only patience.
ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude May 25, 2023 1:00PM ET
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While zero stocks on ICE? Hard to imagine.
Leal Samp
Leal Samp May 25, 2023 1:00PM ET
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Watching 181.70 🧐🧐
ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude May 25, 2023 12:02PM ET
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As commodity prices fall, the argument for strengthening the BRL disappears.
MGom MGom
MGom May 25, 2023 10:58AM ET
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Encapsulated !
Chris Forgione
Chris Forgione May 25, 2023 10:02AM ET
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Great accumulating at 185 -186 for inevitable leg up. Patient long.
MGom MGom
MGom May 25, 2023 10:02AM ET
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perfect ! the leg broke.
Chris Forgione
Chris Forgione May 25, 2023 10:02AM ET
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Seems youre correct. For today
MGom MGom
MGom May 25, 2023 10:02AM ET
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180.60 is key, now.
Sam Houston
Sam Houston May 25, 2023 9:18AM ET
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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude May 25, 2023 9:18AM ET
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When $110? ;)
Maks Mars
Maks Mars May 25, 2023 9:18AM ET
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170$ not lower since too much euphoria around coffee
 
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