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US Coffee C Futures - Jul 23 (KCN3)

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176.25 -0.85    -0.48%
05:39:33 - Real-time derived data. Currency in USD ( Disclaimer )
Type:  Commodity
Group:  Agriculture
Unit:  1 Pound
  • Prev. Close: 177.10
  • Open: 177.25
  • Day's Range: 176.08 - 177.50
US Coffee C 176.25 -0.85 -0.48%

US Coffee C Futures Analysis

 
The latest analysis and reports about the US Coffee C Futures.
Gregor Horvat
Coffee May See Higher Prices By Gregor Horvat - Nov 02, 2018

Hello traders! Today we will talk about Coffee! Coffee made an impulsive five-wave rally into wave A/1 away from 95 lows, which in EW theory means that trend is reversing into a bullish mode,...

Chris Kimble
Coffee And Sugar Break Out By Chris Kimble - Oct 14, 2018 1

Two weeks ago the Power of the Pattern shared that bullish opportunities were forming in two hard-hit commodity ETFs. Above is an update of what these patterns look like 10-days after the original...

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Keith Moore
Keith Moore 6 hours ago
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Technically Hurst says bottom today/tomorrow and projects back to 200 it has call the last 3 cycle bottoms. heavy long today and will add the rest tomorrow but imo a gap up should not be faded
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Leal Samp
Leal Samp 7 minutes ago
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I think the new range for next 6 months will be 140-160
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Sam Houston
Sam Houston 10 hours ago
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hi...
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 15 hours ago
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Some brave people took 6k from ICE... :)
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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 12 hours ago
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Cecafe slow today.
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MGom MGom
MGom 11 hours ago
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ShortDude ShortDude Brazil must have run out of coffee.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 7 hours ago
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Cecafe is not gonna give up easy :). 3 events around the same time: USDA, ICO May report, Cecafe May report. On monthly 61.8 is about 167, 78.6 - about 156 basis July. In 1996 it reversed around 78.6 :) and then produced new high. By daily numbers coming El Nino does not seem to be a weak one :) ... Nobody knows the weather, but 1982-83, 97-98, 15-16 were strong El Nino years.
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Robin Tordoff
Robin Tordoff 18 hours ago
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Closed hedge short. Lets see.
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To Mas
To Mas 19 hours ago
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doest look good for bulls ?
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Tuula Just
Tuula Just 19 hours ago
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all we need isnpatience...
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Maks Mars
Maks Mars 18 hours ago
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i just closed short at 176.50 cant wait that much due to expiry
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Tuula Just
Tuula Just 17 hours ago
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Maks Mars ehh i must wait till 111
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Alpha Centauri
Alpha Centauri 15 hours ago
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When Lambo?
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Maks Mars
Maks Mars 15 hours ago
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Tuula Just i had some little gain but it should go much lower i wont be buyer until 159$
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MGom MGom
MGom 19 hours ago
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So ... it seems that the market is believing that there will be a lack of coffee.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 19 hours ago
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And NG :) as it's gonna be no more winter :).
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MGom MGom
MGom 19 hours ago
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NG is in another Forum
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 18 hours ago
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I'm very sorry !
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MGom MGom
MGom May 29, 2023 4:52PM ET
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CECAFE +2241k new Certs today. The traditional increment of rhythm in the last days of the month
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MGom MGom
MGom May 29, 2023 4:52PM ET
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* +224.1k bags
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 28, 2023 9:43AM ET
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Decline in Indonesian production for 23/24 projected about 2mb (USDA), decline in ES (BRL) production projected about 2mb (CONAB), in total - 4mb. Vietnam R numbers: 21/22 - 30.5 22/23 - 28.7, 23/24 - 30.2mb (projected) but still lower than 2021/22, R forecast (USDA) for India was lowered about 10% (500kb --> 4.58mb), current weather in India far from perfect... Uganda was forecasted to grow for about 300kb. No growth in R sector among top 5 producers is seen... decline attributed to exessive rains, pests, diseases, lower ferts application... Domestic consumption growth rate in Indonesia considered about 5% at the same time as example... R in MY 23/24 hardly will bring bumper crop either... :)
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 28, 2023 9:43AM ET
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Thus, assuming existing A+R data to be useful :) it is only Brazil :) that supposed to surprise everybody. Potential of Brazil is proven, but besides potential simply there is no other origin the story can be told as the hard :) data would not support this story. And retail consumption as cups consumed daily/annualy should not be confused with importers expectation for lower prices and so lower current import as it is not the same. If Brazil will show another drop in export in May (or globally), it may be viewed as less coffee, unwillingness to sell or to buy, etc but hardly as 4mb sudden drop in retail consumption within 5 months as hardly 10mb drop in annual export would mean 10mb drop in consumption - unprecedented.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 28, 2023 9:43AM ET
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Coming USDA report is very important indeed :). Not agitating or unfluencing anybody to buy or sell as all I post is mainly to hear other opinions and for myself :).
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 28, 2023 9:43AM ET
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Average growth rate within 55 years pre-Covid was about 2mb per year. Main drivers: population growth, income growth, cultural traditions. There is no point to talk abot falling consumption: it may decrease for a year or so due to factors as COVID, etc, but as a trend it's steady up. As COVID period had shown, what was lost during COVID was gotten back quickly right after. Part of GCA decision GCA to stop publishing may be that absence of info give importers a bit more time to stay in waiting mode (or they may think it).
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 20 hours ago
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By Conab, 2017 and 2019 OFF A crops in comparison to 2023 OFF: 2017: 1484k ha, 23b/ha; 2019: 1450k ha, 24b/ha; 2023 (2d eval.): 1481k ha, 25.6b/ha. Area wise 2023 roughly same as 2017, but projected yield 11% higher what should point to increased density vs 2017. On adjusted to 2017 yield (density) it would be the same as roughly 170k ha added :). 2018 ON crop (CONAB) produced 47.5mb of A after 34.3mb in OFF 2017, 38.4% increase. Thus, on relative basis :), 2024 ON A crop, obstacles aside and following the ratio, should produce 37.9mb +38.4% = 52.5mb and USDA adjusted :) --> 55-57mb of A. Importers have to start buying champagne or they risk to see empty shelfs later on... :)
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 20 hours ago
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If to add to this potential 20% of may be stock kept by producers (would be 8mb after 2022 and 9mb after 2023 = 17mb :) ), importers may start openning the bottles now :).
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 27, 2023 9:39AM ET
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All KC spikes happened due to weather Disaster of some sorts, no D - no spike.In 2018 rough production cost for A (Brl) was considered about $1.25/more. Around 2008 USDA’s average production cost was about $1.25.In June 1998 KC fell below 1.25 and was staying under till October 2007 or so. ICO, rounded, A+R production, mb: 37 in 98, 48 in 99, 48 in 02, 48 in 06, 39 in 07. No rise in production from 99 to 07.Around Oct 07 price rised over $1.25 and was staying higher till Oct 17 or so. ICO, rounded, A+R, mb: 52 in 08, 55 in 13, 57 in 16, 53 in 17. And 2 record crops ON 18, ON 20. Production was rising while price was rising/staying above the level. Around Jan 2018 price went below 125 and was under about 3 years - 3 times less than within previous cycle, new cyclical low was higher.even after two record crops in a row. On adjusted to 2018 basis (USDA), 2020 A crop did not produce new high/had lower yield.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 27, 2023 9:39AM ET
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Consumption last 10y was rising about 3mb/y - current rate is nothing exotic. 3mb x 3y = 9mb, 6y - 18mb (!). Thus, 21+22+23 = 9mb more in consumption. For healthy stocks/usage this number should be reflected in stocks/production. GCA stopped publishing after 30 years or so. GCA - privet club to benefit members, they suffer the most when price suddenly spikes as their margin drops, hedges crash… GCA didn’t stop during previous cycles, why now ? Can they foresee something (reasonable probability) and take preventive measures? Physical traders now: 1) there is plenty of coffee hoarded, price will drop after harvest to 120/100; 2) (!) last year trading houses were struggling to make profit. Comments from the houses unlikely can be other than record crop is coming...Strong El Niño was never beneficial for coffee production and Brazil is not only origin. But only Brazil was showing tremendous growth last decade, no other origin the story can be told.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 27, 2023 9:39AM ET
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Nobody knows if expected El Nino will come strong or not (moderate/week considered beneficial) but some weather people draw a lot of parallels, basing on current data and comparison with previous strong ones. No guarantee that GSM will make El Nino stronger but GSM is known as producing weather anomalies/disasters. Unless real ha/density would be added, it is hard to see new record crop also next year but not hard to see potential weather risks that may come instead.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 27, 2023 9:39AM ET
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A specially, if price will drop to 120/100 level :).
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 27, 2023 9:39AM ET
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Last low can be retested and until it's broken in a sure manner, to me it is still in uptrend :). However, to be comfortable, current pullback would need to stop within 155 - 175 range :). Friday's cecafe shown 1430mb A vs 2129mb same day last month. Cecafe knows its business :) and month is not done but current :) gap at least shows hesitation :).
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 27, 2023 9:39AM ET
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Cecafe*** - sealed bags (not certs)
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