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US Wheat Futures - May 21 (ZWK1)

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703.40 -6.60    -0.93%
05:07:13 - Real-time derived data. Currency in USD ( Disclaimer )
Type:  Commodity
Group:  Agriculture
Unit:  1 Bushel
  • Prev. Close: 710.00
  • Open: 710.25
  • Day's Range: 703.10 - 713.12
US Wheat 703.40 -6.60 -0.93%
Andrew Lane
The Commodity Bull Run Is Gathering Pace By Andrew Lane - Mar 01, 2021 2

The Black Swan event of early 2020 has led to worldwide government intervention on a scale never seen before. This article will outline the repercussions of this and how this has led to a new...

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US Wheat Futures Discussions

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Zen Cat
LittleZenCat 6 hours ago
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161914621358946.jpg
We're approaching the 61.8 retracement level coupled with a prior resistance zone. Probably would be a good idea not to chase an already extensive move. Once and if, it hits the 618 level there may be some congestion and retracement moves back down. The market might want to take out the highs of the resistance zone before initiating corrective activity and it'd likely range for a while. There's still the possibility of price blowing past all resistances for 800+, though it's not as likely given the overbought conditions on the monthly
Zen Cat
LittleZenCat 5 hours ago
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161914746275225.jpg
161914746275225.jpg There's actually a good reference point from historical precedence: What we may be seeing something similar to the 2005-2008 price action. Toward the end of 2006 there was a spiking action in price that lifted up to the 618 and it pulled back and corrected for 5 months, finding support back at the 20 Monthly MA and then went on to test and blow past resistances. We may not see exponential behavior like that but there is a good chance after the touch of the 20 monthly MA it will be testing highs again. Just like 15 years ago, price was coming out of a multi-year rounding bottoms pattern that i've been stressing for the past few months - these patterns especially if formed over extensive time have great outcomes. Possilbiy great trade yet to come in the coming weeks and months~!
Zen Cat
LittleZenCat 5 hours ago
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One last point: last time the rounding bottoms breakout occurred 15 yrs ago, the dollar crashed down to the 70's. With the dollar we could be seeing the same fractal being iterated albeit on a smaller scale. So it would be a good idea to watch that too.
Johnny Teoh
Johnny Teoh 4 hours ago
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Thanks littleZen, appreciated it
Blanca Mata
Blanca Mata 6 hours ago
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Bear
Nicholas Van Thomas
Van_Thomas 12 hours ago
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This is the perfect recipe for demand destruction. Someone mentioned "extreme drought" yet agriculture is responsible for the largest use of water in the country. So, sorry...the crops are getting plenty of water. To go from $4s to $7s in just months is how consumers the world around will cut back, because they cannot afford to do otherwise. If these truths upset your long position, please--feel free to go the way Judas did any time now. 90% of U.S. consumers agree with me whole-heartedly.
Staff Gillette
Staff Gillette 10 hours ago
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"Cut Back"? It's a global market so don't be set on what is happening in your local market. There are droughts every year somewhere on the planet and demand gets filled from surplus somewhere else. Unfortunately farmers benefit from a drought anywhere other then where they live. This is good for consumers because it stabilizes prices. But Americans in particular are not capable of cutting back on food. Every year we get fatter. Not all wheat goes to bread either. When corn gets too high and the cattlemen start feeding wheat heavy. The price can only increase when this happens.
Nicholas Van Thomas
Van_Thomas 8 hours ago
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Staff Gillette  Um... if Americans don't cut back, then where is all of this magical money supposed to come from to pay for higher food costs? Don't say stimulus checks, because both stock & futures markets priced in as though the average citizen would receive a lottery jackpot; when in reality, that went towards rent/mortgage & food costs, some to offset loss of income during the pandemic. I said demand destruction because once dining-in becomes the norm again, nobody will go because of sky-high costs--exactly what happened when G.W. Bush left office--ruined economy, high food costs. People are waiting for hours in long lines for food. Get a clue.
Staff Gillette
Staff Gillette 6 hours ago
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The political commentary is irrelevant to how the global market functions. How about you see how long you can go without eating and we'll wait to see how long the farmer well let his grain sit in his bin before selling it. The price will work itself out.
Kr Kr
GoldenRide 5 hours ago
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Staff Gillette the farmers can wait longer and longer. The buyers get hungry fast and pay what ever they have to.
Kr Kr
GoldenRide 4 hours ago
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so you think that every farmer is using irrigation? lol that's so so far from the truth. Irrigation means nothing to the crop market its all set land that matters. irrigated acres produce similar production every year way easy to factor in. dryland can have monster swings in yields. wheat will be used for feed soon as corn is getting to high. that will take the price even higher
Baldev Khemani
Baldev Khemani 16 hours ago
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short fall of wheat production this year???
Joe Lane
Joe Lane 15 hours ago
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Likely a combination from severe winter, falling dollar and massive stimulus.
Kr Kr
GoldenRide 14 hours ago
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Joe Lane severe drought
Kr Kr
GoldenRide 14 hours ago
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Joe Lane severe drought
Baldev Khemani
Baldev Khemani 16 hours ago
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short fall of wheat production this year???
Patrick valk
Patrick valk 16 hours ago
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Could also be biggest trap in history. I closed longs
Kr Kr
GoldenRide 5 hours ago
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could be. I think 725 then 690-700 retest of that area hold then 750.
John Sail
John Sail 16 hours ago
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It is way overbought, I will try a short
Kr Kr
GoldenRide 16 hours ago
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be very careful into tomorrow wait till next week or eod tomorrow for a short
Ahmed Albayyouk
Ahmed Albayyouk 12 hours ago
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please share your opinion if it is worth the short
Zen Cat
LittleZenCat 16 hours ago
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This is splendid! It ran my target of 705 from 593! Never imagined it would be this quick~~
sandip panchal
sandip panchal 16 hours ago
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How much further will move up today?
Zen Cat
LittleZenCat 16 hours ago
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sandip panchal  could possibly hit limit up. Corns done it already. Theres good volatility in the mkts today
Stephen Wong
Stephen Wong 17 hours ago
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Massive short squeeze
Patrick valk
Patrick valk 17 hours ago
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Golden you are the man👍 well done
Kr Kr
GoldenRide 17 hours ago
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Hey I really appreciate that. Hope you caught it for the ride up we have had!
Patrick valk
Patrick valk 16 hours ago
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Yeah. Limit still 40?
Kr Kr
GoldenRide 16 hours ago
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ya I believe unless they moved it to 50. should trigger today on that squeeze. tomorrow could get crazy
Kr Kr
GoldenRide 16 hours ago
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the drought in the US/Canada is worse right now than in the 2010s
Patrick valk
Patrick valk 13 hours ago
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Kr Kr yess. But didnt hit limit up so no bigger limit for tomorrow
Kr Kr
GoldenRide 17 hours ago
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On the verge of monster short covering potential and squeeze. Also could double top
Ramesh Kumar Garg
Ramesh Kumar Garg 17 hours ago
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India wheat productions is down by 20 MMT , 20% of total productions
Sourabh Jakhar
Sourabh Jakhar 17 hours ago
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can you tell from where you got this data??
Ahmed Albayyouk
Ahmed Albayyouk 17 hours ago
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so temping to short
Kr Kr
GoldenRide 17 hours ago
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it's breaking resistance wait till 698 to 704
Ahmed Albayyouk
Ahmed Albayyouk 17 hours ago
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thanks.. always appreciate your inputs
Patrick valk
Patrick valk 18 hours ago
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Lol. Zw zc zs at same day to yearly high. I know its bullish, but its controlled
Ibrahim Patel
Ibrahim Patel 19 hours ago
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From 2015 to 2019 we had a seasonal wheat price pattern with the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) futures peaking midyear, before falling into our harvest. Against the global wheat harvest, this is the wrong time for the annual price peak.
Kr Kr
GoldenRide Apr 21, 2021 2:15PM ET
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Peter knows nothing about grain. So do not listen to him
Ahmed Albayyouk
Ahmed Albayyouk Apr 21, 2021 2:15PM ET
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would like to have you opinion on when to short this. is this a good shorting point?
Johnny Teoh
Johnny Teoh 23 hours ago
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The trend is still bull, why u still looking for short..?
Kr Kr
GoldenRide 19 hours ago
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sit in you're money for a bit. you can take a small short 688 lvl if you want however if it is going to be testing 693 if that breaks and takes 700 this goes to 750. then will drop back and retest 690-700 lvl and decide the direction. if 693 fails it could be a longer double top. and drop to 650 then 630. you are trying to short an uptrend though and that's risky.
Kr Kr
GoldenRide 19 hours ago
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sit on you're money
Peter Smith
Peter Smith Apr 21, 2021 2:06PM ET
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DUUUMP everything!!!!
Ahmed Albayyouk
Ahmed Albayyouk Apr 21, 2021 11:51AM ET
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sell here or wait?
Peter Smith
Peter Smith Apr 21, 2021 11:42AM ET
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sell in tonnes!!!
New Trader
New Trader Apr 21, 2021 11:42AM ET
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want 650 to breakeven. don't want to sell more to maintain equity.
Kr Kr
GoldenRide Apr 21, 2021 11:42AM ET
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peter you know nothing I'm sorry so sorry
New Trader
New Trader Apr 21, 2021 11:39AM ET
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still holding for 650...
Kr Kr
GoldenRide Apr 21, 2021 10:42AM ET
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So many here talk like they always want downside and do not see any upside with wheat. Really? lol that's silly.
REM Gultz
REMGULTZ Apr 21, 2021 10:42AM ET
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yeah its silly that your bread in your table very expensive.
Kr Kr
GoldenRide Apr 21, 2021 10:42AM ET
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that's walmarts fault bud has nothing to do with wheat price guess what though they are greedy. That loaf of bread might to to 5 each. but that's still the farmers fault when 1 6 dollar bu of wheat makes 60- 80 loafs of bread right? farmer gains 6 dollars total. walmart sells it and makes 180 dollars a bu.
ES SS
ES SS Apr 21, 2021 10:17AM ET
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pump and dump again  ??
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Apr 21, 2021 3:57AM ET
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16189918116604.jpg
So now with the new contract ZW is back on my radar. Technically since Jul20 it has been in an up trend. After the recent retracement (Feb 24th to Mar 31st) ZW has been again on an up trend for the past 3 weeks. On the 1W chart however we see that it is getting weaker. The wick of the last candle on the 1W chart ~@663.30 is interesting. We could consider it as a price rejection (actually the 8th for this year on the 1W). So going down in TF now to 1D, both Stochastic and CCI show ZW as overbought and RSI approaching the overbought zone. Additionally the COT of 13/4 shows that the big boys opened 6319 new short positions while opening only 631 longs. The Fib 0.382 stands @651.50-652 which is a 3 week support and previous resistance level. Based on the above I would think that we might have a retracement again to ~651 but it is premature to talk about reversal yet. I would wait to see how price will move if it reaches 650.5-639 which is the decision area IMO and only then consider longs.
Johnny Teoh
Johnny Teoh Apr 21, 2021 3:57AM ET
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Bouras, you're waiting for long?
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Apr 21, 2021 3:57AM ET
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Johnny Teoh theoretically yes.
Kr Kr
GoldenRide Apr 21, 2021 3:57AM ET
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nice analysis. I think we test 690 and decide if we go to 7.5 then 8.4 then 10 or back to 650 then up or back to the lvl2 support 6.3. lvl. could create a double top at 690 if it fails. if it breaks I do suspect this goes to 10 over the next 2 years.
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Apr 21, 2021 3:57AM ET
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Kr Kr thnak you. What you mention is a very possible scenario. For the long term (2yrs) I don't know as things are really not so certain anywhere from climate, to pandemic, to economy, to the meltdown on stock markets which seems to be on its' way! So the lvl 683-693 and a failure to break would be the third rejection this year. It would seem like a misfigured H&S which suggest a drop after that. I don't know I still wait for a good retracement to open longs.
Kr Kr
GoldenRide Apr 21, 2021 3:57AM ET
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you are exactly right! the stock market is on the verge of total disaster. And definitely wait for 6.5 to buy or the confirmation of 690-700 break and retest
Dragos VOICU
Dragos VOICU Apr 20, 2021 12:30PM ET
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Have a profitable day all of you!
Dragos VOICU
Dragos VOICU Apr 20, 2021 12:27PM ET
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Hey... Why is going down?
 
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