US Cocoa (CCU6)

I just entered short

COCOA As expected, the September cocoa contract has extended the uptrend again today with US cocoa prices reaching the highest level since a major gap down trade in January. The London cocoa market is also confirming the extension of the bull case with a five month high, and cocoa traders in London continue to price in significantly lower 26/27 West African main crop output. In other words, El Niño bullish fever continues to dominate the trade, and the September contract appears to be on track to regain $5500.

What do you think will happen to the price today?

Still holding the large may 2027 futures position I bought for 3500. TP still 14000 on this exact thesis.

why down now?

Cocoa prices extended their two-week rally on Wednesday, soaring to 5-month highs. Cocoa prices are supported by heavy rains in the Ivory Coast, which have flooded roads and cut off farmers’ access to farms and ports, threatening global supplies. Excessive moisture also increases the risk of brown rot disease on cocoa trees, reducing yields and jeopardizing the harvest.

I like the uprise so far but it can be better, road to 6k 📈

6000 is the target

just run... please

6k is the citi forecast, so first we will hit 6k. They correctly did also 5 k

Considering El Niño situation what would be the target 8000 or even higher ??

Citi Raises Cocoa Price Outlook As ‘Super El Niño’ Threat Puts Latin American Producers On Alert Analysis: Key cocoa suppliers tell CocoaRadar they are preparing for heightened risks from drought, excessive rainfall and disease pressure as market prepares to weather the storm

Please explain

here we go again

Tariffs hormuz?? Fertilizers are going to get even more expensive...

5,2k this week?

The price can reach above 5000 because only the end users know why they are buying now, the stock available to buyers is limited.

Anyone who says that its going above 5000 is delusional and doesnt know how to read charts at all

After a great fall with serious debt cocoa rises again

5k :)

this will break 5,5k end of this week

buckle up! Surprisingly we will be licking 5k already today

5K now looks possible

The Real-Time Impact on 2025/26 and 2026/27 Projections: The concrete effects of this climate anomaly on production forecasts and market surpluses are detailed below:Slashed Global Surpluses: With NOAA confirming a high-probability El Niño intensification heading into 2027, major commodity firms have aggressively downgraded their market balance forecasts. StoneX slashed its 2025/26 global surplus down to 247,000 metric tonnes, and deeply cut the expected 2026/27 surplus by more than 44% down to just 149,000 metric tonnes.The "Too Wet" Anomaly in West Africa: Instead of the usual dry spells, Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana are being battered by relentless, above-average precipitation. Cocoa fields are reporting low sunshine, waterlogged soil, and extreme humidity. This environment accelerates devastating fungal outbreaks like black pod rot and prevents farmers from properly drying beans.Stunted Cherelle Formation: Early field surveys reveal below-average cherelle (young pod) formation on trees. Because June pod development directly dictates the volume of the critical October main-crop harvest, the upcoming 2026/27 season is already facing lower yield expectations.Surging Commodity Futures: Market panic over El Niño risks has triggered a swift price rebound. After correcting downward toward $4,100 per tonne in early 2026, New York cocoa futures surged back to nearly $4,650–$4,675 per metric tonne as investors aggressively price in long-term supply scarcity City forecast: Citi Research forecasts that the global cocoa market will return to a deficit of 56,000 tonnes for the 2026/27 season, driven by a looming "Super El Niño" threat that could severely cripple crop yields across major growing regions. This is a sharp reversal from their projected 111,000-tonne surplus for the 2025/26 season.Citi’s updated third-quarter commodities outlook highlights several critical elements for the 2026/27 cocoa crop:1. Market Balance ReversalFrom Surplus to Deficit: Citi's projection of a 56,000-tonne global deficit highlights a fragile market returning to supply constraints after a brief, modest recovery period.

World food and Agricultural organisation sees the biggest hit from El Nino - Across the Sahel The maps point to a broad belt of agricultural drought stretching from Senegal and southern Mauritania through Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin and Nigeria, and eastward into Ethiopia and Sudan.