US Cocoa (CCZ6)

HOPE FULLY THE PRICE OF CACAU GOES DOWN !!! I AM VERY HAPPY 😁😁😁

Up from here we go, it doesnt wanna stay in the red.

All in long bois!

Stay on short, the game is just getting started.

stay on long, the game is just getting started.

This stock is in a sorry state 🤣; it might inch up a bit at night, but then it drops heavily in the morning 🤣. It’s really pitiful—unlike other stocks that are raking in profits

COCOA: Historically Strong El Niño Could Trigger Another Major Rally The new NOAA report released on 13 August 2026 is, in my view, one of the most interesting fundamental developments for the cocoa market in quite some time. NOAA now sees a probability of more than 90 percent for a very strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026/27. Even more remarkable is the outlook for October through December 2026. NOAA sees a 69 percent probability of a historically exceptional El Niño event. According to NOAA's definition, such an event would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950. The current measurements are also extraordinary. Sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific are now more than 2 degrees Celsius above average. The July Niño 3.4 value was +1.4 degrees Celsius. Subsurface temperature anomalies have reached as high as +10 degrees Celsius. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, 13 August 2026. Official source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml This development could become extremely important for the cocoa market. West Africa is the center of global cocoa production. Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana are particularly important for global supply. If this exceptionally strong El Niño translates into unfavorable weather conditions across the major cocoa-growing regions in the coming months, drought, heat, disease and crop losses could put significant pressure on global supply. And this is where I believe the situation becomes particularly interesting. Cocoa is currently trading around 5,700 USD per tonne, still far below the historical highs above 12,000 USD. If weather conditions deteriorate and crop estimates are revised lower, the market could move very quickly into a completely different price range. A move toward 8,000 USD looks absolutely realistic to me if the weather and supply situation deteriorates significantly. A move toward 9,000 to 10,000 USD would also be possible in a strong bull-case scenario. A retest of the historical 12,000 USD area would be an extreme scenario and would require a major weather and supply shock. However, the cocoa market has already traded in that region historically. The development of the NOAA forecast is particularly interesting: June: 63 percent probability of a very strong El Niño. July: 81 percent probability of a very strong El Niño. August: more than 90 percent probability of a very strong El Niño. In addition, there is now a 69 percent probability of a historically exceptional event during October through December. The forecast has therefore strengthened significantly within only a few months. It is also interesting that cocoa did not immediately rally strongly on the day of the announcement. In my view, this does not necessarily mean that the news is bearish. Commodity markets often need time to fully price fundamental developments. What matters now will be the actual weather conditions in West Africa, weather models, crop forecasts and inventory developments over the coming weeks and months. My personal bull-case scenario therefore looks roughly like this: 5,700 USD as the starting point 6,500 USD as the first major recovery zone 7,000 USD as the next important target 8,000 USD if weather and supply problems intensify significantly 9,000 to 10,000 USD in the event of a major supply deficit 12,000 USD as an extreme scenario following a major weather and crop shock Of course, none of this is guaranteed and this is not financial advice. Cocoa remains an extremely volatile commodity and can experience significant corrections at any time. However, if this exceptionally strong El Niño ultimately causes serious problems for the upcoming West African crop, the current price around 5,700 USD could look very low in hindsight. In my view, this marks the beginning of a particularly interesting phase for cocoa. The coming weeks will show whether the market starts to seriously price in the increasing weather and supply risks. Not financial advice. This is solely my personal bullish view on the cocoa market.

Up we go from here 5700 gonna hold

We go down from here

RED AGAIN TOMORROW GREEN !

Hello?

Helo?? Anyone here???

We long or shorting cocoa today?

Cacao 5900

SOLD OUT CACAU IN INDONESIA !

We are going up slowly

Lets get some life in here guys common

Short target 5500$$$

Long from 5622 - see if we can bounce to the end of this session

remember there is gap on 5200

🍫Ecuador is back! In June they exported 42 thousand ton of cocoa, twice as much as two years ago! Most ships went to US and Indonesia, so i will take a look at their ports next. Let it faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaal baby! Not investment advice.

Buy now

Should we buy now ?

What do you reckon – will it turn round here, or will it keep going up to around 5,300?

Out of short from last night