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Opening Bell: Futures, Stocks Mixed On Rate Uncertainty, COVID Spike; USD Flat

By Investing.com (Pinchas Cohen)Market OverviewJun 28, 2021 08:22AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/opening-bell-futures-stocks-mixed-on-rate-uncertainty-covid-spike-usd-flat-200588590
Opening Bell: Futures, Stocks Mixed On Rate Uncertainty, COVID Spike; USD Flat
By Investing.com (Pinchas Cohen)   |  Jun 28, 2021 08:22AM ET
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  • Delta variant threatens summer travel, leading to selloff in sector shares
  • Bitcoin moves higher but technicals suggest longer-term trend is lower

Key Events

US futures for the Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 started the trading week off  higher, while European stocks fluctuated, after a mixed Asian session on Monday. Market indecision is being driven by off-again, on-again concerns of rising inflation and uncertainty about the timing of the Fed's stance on how transitory the economic phenomenon might be and the timeframe for tightening of the loosest monetary policy in history.

Travel related shares plummeted following a spike in the number of COVID cases in Asia. The dollar was little changed.

Global Financial Affairs

Contracts on the S&P 500 extended the best weekly advance of the index since February, but contracts on the NASDAQ doubled their gains. However, futures on the small cap Russell 2000 and, at time of writing, the mega cap Dow index, were in the red.

The the pan-European STOXX 600 Index wobbled between gains and losses, as an advance in chemical stocks offset a selloff of travel stocks, as the highly contagious Delta variant threatens to derail summer travel in Europe.

German travel company Tui AG (DE:TUIGn) sold off, losing 3%.

TUI Daily
TUI Daily

The Hanover-based firm may have completed an upsloping H&S top, followed by a fall below its 100 DMA, for the first time since crossing over it on Nov. 9.

UK-based discount airline EasyJet (LON:EZJ) also declined, -2.2%.

EJZ Daily
EJZ Daily

The low-cost British airline firm may be forming a H&S top, while—like TUI—it crossed below the 100 DMA after climbing above it on Nov. 9. The RSI has provided a negative divergence, falling while the price climbed from May 3 to May 7, suggesting the stock will top out.

On Monday, weekly trading started with a cautious tone in Asia, after the number of COVID cases in the region escalated over the weekend, leaving stocks in a holding pattern till the next catalyst, ahead of a slew of data from the US this coming week. Japan's Nikkei 225, China's Shanghai Composite, South Korea's KOSPI and Hong Kong's Hang Seng all closed marginally lower this morning.

Yields, including for the 10-year benchmark Treasury note, were lower for the day, along with the risk-on appetite.

UST 10Y Daily
UST 10Y Daily

Rates have been falling since the Mar. 30 peak. Having completed a H&S top, they are now extending the downtrend within a falling channel. The 50 DMA has already crossed below the 100 DMA, but the 200 DMA, supporting the channel, will be the next real test.

If yields turn around, it could pull cash out of the stock market, attracting investors looking for higher yields and the security Treasuries provide. For now, though, investors seem to be focusing on the economic rebound.

The dollar slipped within a range, wavering for a fifth day, supported by the 100 DMA.

Gold tested the bottom of a rising channel, bearish after the preceding near-7.5% plunge within six sessions.

Gold Daily
Gold Daily

This suggests a resumption of the falling channel, rather than the completion of an H&S bottom.

Bitcoin pushed past the $35,000 level for the first time in over a week.

BTC/USD Daily
BTC/USD Daily

However, the cryptocurrency's moves are developing into a H&S continuation pattern, whose neckline meets with the $29,000 major support. Note, the 200 DMA is curving downward after meeting the extended H&S neckline completed on May 15, suggesting the trend could be headed lower.

Oil found resistance at the $74 level, near the 2018 highs, ahead of the July OPEC+ Meeting.

Oil Daily
Oil Daily

The price of WTI has found resistance at this level for the past six sessions—matching gold’s recent selloff—after having blown out an Evening Star (circled). Traders are waiting for a catalyst, to know whether crude will fall back toward its bullish triangle or take out the 2018 highs before reaching 2014 levels.

Up Ahead

  • The OECD meets in Paris on Wednesday, to finalize a proposal to overhaul global minimum corporate taxation
  • China’s President Xi Jinping will deliver a speech Thursday as the Asian nation marks the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party 
  • The OPEC+ ministerial committee meeting takes place on Thursday
  • ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks on Friday
  • Friday's U.S. monthly jobs report is forecast to show an acceleration in payrolls growth during June

Market Moves

Stocks

  • The Stoxx Europe 600 was little changed.
  • Futures on the S&P 500 rose 0.1%.
  • Futures on the NASDAQ 100 rose 0.3%.
  • Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.15%.
  • The MSCI Emerging Markets Index was little changed

Currencies

  • The Dollar Index declined less than 0.1%.
  • The euro was steady at $1.1942.
  • The Japanese yen was little changed at 110.64 per dollar.
  • The offshore yuan flat at 6.4593 per dollar.
  • The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.3933.

Bonds

  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries held steady at 1.52%.
  • Germany’s Germany 10-year yield was little changed at -0.16%.
  • Britain’s 10-year yield was was flat at 0.77%.

Commodities

Opening Bell: Futures, Stocks Mixed On Rate Uncertainty, COVID Spike; USD Flat
 

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Opening Bell: Futures, Stocks Mixed On Rate Uncertainty, COVID Spike; USD Flat

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Comments (4)
Cornel Pod
Cornel Pod Jun 28, 2021 9:28AM ET
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Excellent article! thx.
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Jun 28, 2021 9:28AM ET
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You're welcome, and thank you, Cornel!
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Jun 28, 2021 9:28AM ET
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Thanks, Cornel!
Delta UFO
DeltaUFO Jun 28, 2021 7:35AM ET
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Market's going to crash and UFO will keep on spreading Delta Covid21 which is kinda better than the last one . . .
Richard Lomax
Richard Lomax Jun 28, 2021 7:26AM ET
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5-Star Reporting..Thanks !
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Jun 28, 2021 7:26AM ET
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Thanks, Richard!
Pa Sa
Pa Sa Jun 28, 2021 7:24AM ET
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New week, new narrative. This is what I mean in my comment on your previous article Pinhas. I don't like this about the market, but reasoning seems comes second compared to these narratives...
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Jun 28, 2021 7:24AM ET
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I don't like lots of things in society. Doesn't mean they don't exist. Knowing them might prove helfpul.
Pa Sa
Pa Sa Jun 28, 2021 7:24AM ET
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yeah, it's there to deal with and to help make profitable positions!
 
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