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US Coffee C (KCc1)

ICE
Symbol
Exchange
Currency
KC·Derived·USD
KCc1·ICE·USD
KCc2·ICE·USD
KCc3·ICE·USD
KCc4·ICE·USD
KCc5·ICE·USD
KCc6·ICE·USD
KCc7·ICE·USD
Currency in USD
292.65
0.00(0.00%)
Delayed Data·

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

Double level by Sep25...around 580
ShortDude. :) Get a little break from the beach :) and dedicate some time to #178 PC - you'll have a real pleasure watching :). Brazilian harvest is 50% completed and it goes quickly :). As initially stated, no positive surprises for the arabica, all positive for R :), amazing :) correlation with USDA.
High temps continue breaking seasonal records in many countries/parts of the world. At some point the reversal will happen and degree of anomalies kinda point that reversal is gonna be rather swift than smooth :). Swift reversal may :) create the anomalies of other polarity :) but the degree of them may be similar. Now, note, that at current balance the reaction of the market to the catalyst of the smaller scale may be disproportional :): no real big disaster is needed anymore as current stocks to use ratio is very small and the base is high (for now). Not many people think of it... Many traditionally/conservatively consider that a real big frost is needed, etc. Nope, it's not like this anymore :) or until bumper crop is produced. Just too much rain or fungus/pests real outbreak may be enough :)... I don't know about 8k - 10k per ha except experimental farms :), but if to believe open sources many producers increased the density to 5k - 6k what is not that small in relation to more conservative previous patterns. However, the higher the density - the higher the risk and if weather/price combo will not cooperate to the needed extent the yield may not provide desired result. Besides the weather/price, inputs matter and if weather/geo-political issues will catapult price of the oil/ng quite high, it will add to the fire... All this is a speculation for now but not without a merit... Not to say disaster is coming but to underline that record crop over 50mb may be far away if the stars will refuse to align for now...
Colombia is not Brazil but it may give a clue. Colombian production was decrease due to rain and rumors say CA will follow :). Colombia was not able to repeat its recent production peak, achieved in 16/17 no matter all the programs and high density (USDA estimated in 2023 that density reached 5,287 trees/ha and 86% plants being rust resistant), etc. To quote: While planting density increased to 5,287 trees per hectare, a record figure, productivity decreased - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2021 2022 2023 Thousands COP - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 MY 2012/13 MY 2013/14 MY 2014/15 MY 2015/16 MY 2016/17 MY 2017/18 MY 2018/19 MY 2019/20 MY 2020/21 MY 2021/22 Thousand bags GBE 4 11.6 percent to 17.1 bags GBE per hectare. This decrease in productivity is mainly a result of adverse weather conditions and lower fertilization rates.
To quote: While planting density increased to 5,287 trees per hectare, a record figure, productivity decreased 11.6% to 17.1 bags GBE per hectare. This decrease in productivity is mainly a result of adverse weather conditions and lower fertilization rates.
Are KC trading tomorrow July. 4.? Or is it closed for trading just as EQ and Bonds?
Closed
Thx.
its time to visit more often, currently no position, but im targeting 230 with the possible extension to 190 to get in
Frank, Mr. is not needed :). I'm very satisfied with my book and wish you the same :) with your book, whatever book it is :). I never argue just to argue - it is very unproductive and builds the bad :) reflex. I ask only hoping to get informative response to analyze it and to evaluate if I missed something, got wrong, undervalued, etc - I ask solely from practical standpoint. Besides, I wouldn't be speaking for everybody - also builds a bad habit :). Thus, now it's time for you to explain why it was delusional ? Can you ?
I am not a writer. No books from my side. Delusional was not my reply. In any case we can write that market Will reach again 50 or 500.. yes It Is possibile . In the long future.. but this do not help the people tò bring the food on the table Daily(at least of they have very huge savings).. we have tò look at the contingent situation and navigate It.. there are targets that could be reached in the nearby medium term and these in my opinion seems the One tò be focused on .. past obviously give some clue but does not repeat perfectly. Have a nice Independence Day and longo week end
Frank, If it was not your replay - please, take my sincere apology and consider my comment, in relation to that being null and void :) !!! And a nice relaxing weekend to you too !!! ( But can't resist to mention :): 1) recent ATH was reached not on the frost catalyst but on continuing weather issues. Frost is just a most famous one as it comes quickly, visible, makes a lot of noice no matter what and the effect of it is visible quite quickly too (if any:)), while the other ones are more silent what do not mean less dangerous. Rain, fungus, pests or in a complex :); 2) my long comments are not related to the fact that price goes up and down but to the possibility of a new ATH, spike of a scale, etc based on existing and upcoming fundamentals as such an event if properly envisioned and managed has a chance :) to produce incredible result. It's not about being long or short but about to try to define the big cycle as accurate as possible. Our exchange of opinions with Coffee KC is based on that :). )
liquidity grab done lets go to 327
sell stop for overhedge on 280
FROST ALARM TURNED ON for next seven days !!!!
Unreal info for coffee areas so far Sorry . Please be a Little bit more serious
Have a cooool nite !
A fantastic stop run. Glad I do not use stops.
That hurts.
Have a look on GOLD direction proportions
We are Expecting US COFFEE price to 404 SOON.
yeah no
It was me who's got the beans :).
Weekly stochastic reached very oversold level. Exactly last time similar cycle happened in 2023, it started in the end of June 2023 and ended in the beginning of Oct 2023, price fluctuation during that cycle was within roughly 25 points. We'll see what the weekly close will be and if it will manage to get back into the channel on weekly.
Volumes are low and still option and Arbitrage by specs leading movement. To be see which reaction if industry will enter the market
So far, technical counter-movements have been virtually absent. It's just continuously falling further. It's really rare that they make it so easy for traders...
Easy only for the specs / financial traders. Now origins as said time ago only have tò blame themselves in witholding from negotiate when mkt was 380/400 .. but this Is life
We've been in a southward channel for five weeks now, with no signs of a trend reversal. Sticking with your short position here is likely a safe bet.
Endless oversold but havet hit buttom yet. What a sellout ...
Soon 404 USD
based on what?
Could have taken 2 points profit, and take the day off.  Why?  Urge to stay in the game?
 Intra day & week I'd say. I get burn so horribly trying to make a real good swing...
 Yesterday saved myself taking a small profit...
Thank you !
My coffee habit
Holding on...
They got the memo, KC immediately dropping after I get in at 287.70...
Hype was huge from 200 to 480, but more volatile and ATH is coming from August 20th onward. Probably will hit +500 !
Well...I've got to say, you committ!?
This is a parody account, right?
The king of nonsense making joke
sell target 247
Good place to buy? Aiming for 300
more likely 280 trend is your friend
US may exempt goods that cant be grown in the US from tariffs. ‘’The Trump administration may decide to eliminate tariffs on products that cannot be easily grown in the United States, such as cocoa beans or coffee,‘’ said Brooke Rollins, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture.
another reason to go more down can´t be more clear
Targeted level of Reuters poll of abt 3 months ago reached well before expectations (year end).. Nobody at that time thought it will be possible
Arbitrage and options lead market specs Activity today USD 200 MT arbitrage and opt levels 292.5 / 290 but .. we have s long week end in USA
just full margin sell this crap to 140 repeating always same story big hype up and then endless fall
Yea, the 15 to 20 cents down is possible maybe even more, but it ain't going anywhere near 4 or 5. Keep dreaming though. We're already in the start of a down cycle. This stuff was a balloon full of hot air for way too long. Thing finally popped. This hits 2.75 and there's higher chance it'll be 2 by next june.
There were seasonal cold records broken in Argentina, Chile with a very rare snowflakes (as event) in some parts of Argentina and Bolivia and heat records are ongoing in EU and many other countries. Anomalies are always a function of some changes in traditional patterns what means there is something that causes those changes. The winter is not over in SH and nobody knows what and when may arrive and of what degree. I 'm not saying it must happen, but if to suppose that at some point reversal in heat anomalies will happen, it would be not that hard to suppose that cold anomalies may surprise the same way as previously hot :) did, in terms of amplitude and duration. Argentina, Chile, Bolivia are not influencing coffee areas :) in Brazil clearly, but the anomalies, related to cold in some parts of those countries show that more cold anomalies may be around the corner and the degree is unknown. In 2022 priced topped in Feb and bottomed in Jan 2023 after what it made intra top in April (!!!) 2023, PRE-HARVEST, and retested the recent low, which retest ended in Oct 2023, after what the run up took place. The complete pull back took about 20 months. :) Oversold weekly stoch really points to another 15 - 20 points or so down, however not necessarily as daily stoch is also very oversold, technical bounce wise.
Real cold anomalies started revealing in Argentina, Chile, etc. They are not affecting coffee areas in Brazil but may point to the fact that heat anomalies may get reversed soon and the cold ones may replace them. If that will happen and the scale of the cold ones will be comparable to the hot ones, effect may be meaningful. Price topped in Feb 2022 and made intra low in Jan 2023, then made intra top in April 2023, pre-harvest (!) and then retested Jan 2023 low in Oct 2023, post-harvest (!) after what advanced to recent ATH. Feb 2022 - Oct 2023 pullback took roughly 20 months. Weekly stock currently really points to another possible 15 - 20c down but not necessarily as daily is very oversold too. For more firm conclusions regarding the end of a bull market a 250 cluster should be penetrated and then 200 level which is truly line in the sand. Nobody knows and now it seems obvious to many, but it seemed obvious to many also in 2022 ... :):):). The historical bull market is not about random pull and its size, it is about the fact that next cyclicaL high will higher than recent ATH and will be made BEFORE next cyclical low will be made. Under cyclical low it seems reasonable to understand 100 level :). Let's wait and see ! :)
Hmm never doubted the false speculation….there is plenty of supply.
Morning reversals are the best. If/when
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