Breaking News
0
Ad-Free Version. Upgrade your Investing.com experience. Save up to 40% More details

Week Ahead: As Worst Month For Stocks Nears, Expect Volatility, Adding To Worries

By Investing.com (Pinchas Cohen/Investing.com)Market OverviewAug 29, 2021 07:33AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/week-ahead-as-worst-month-for-stocks-nears-expect-volatility-adding-to-risks-200600307
Week Ahead: As Worst Month For Stocks Nears, Expect Volatility, Adding To Worries
By Investing.com (Pinchas Cohen/Investing.com)   |  Aug 29, 2021 07:33AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
 
  • Powell doesn’t provide firm timeline for tapering: stocks, Treasuries, commodities rise; dollar falls
  • Surprisingly, investors still rotate back into the Reflation Trade

Can ongoing record breaking rallies for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite as well as near record highs for the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 continue as Septermber begins? Historically, since 1945, that's the month that's consistently been the worst period of the year for equities.

Without doubt, it's also the question traders are likely asking as they wonder whether the momentum that pushed stocks to their highest levels in history will be enough to offset a variety of ongoing risks including the resurgence of the Delta variant of COVID-19 as it escalates worldwide.

Bulls took charge of the market on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, speaking at the central bank's annual Jackson Hole symposium, indicated the Fed was in no rush to hike rates, but would possibly begin tapering its asset purchases "this year." Still, though that sounds like good news for investors in the short-term, the market narrative is rife with geopolitical, economic, and health-related worries.

Though Powell's message was anticlimactic, with no specific timeline provided, and the delivery was dovish, the Fed chair did create the expectation of potential changes by providing a possible catalyst via this coming Friday’s, August Nonfarm Payrolls report after he mentioned there's room for improvement in the US job market. It's anyone's guess, at this point, if next Friday's data will be a sufficient prompt for the Fed to finally become more hawkish.

Reflation Trade Back In Play

All major US indexes climbed on the final day of last week's trade, however the prevailing pattern was the reflation trade. The Russell 2000—which lists small cap domestic firms that benefit from a reopening economy and are often referred to as value stocks—outperformed, surging 3%, while the NASDAQ 100, the index that includes the pandemic technology darlings known as growth shares, barely added 1%.

The daily details tell an even clearer story: when analyzing the 11 SPX sectors, the numbers show a distinct investor preference for value sectors. Energy jumped 2.7%, followed by Financials and Materials, each rising 1.3%. The Technology sector couldn’t even muster a full percentage point, though Communication Services did rise 1.6%.

The switch back to stocks sensitive to economic growth was even more pronounced in the weekly view, with energy catapulting 7.5%, followed by Financials’ 3.5% jump, Materials’ 2.6% gains and 2.25% advance for Industrials. Technology gained less than 1.5% for the week, with Communication Services again doing better, + 2.4%.

This rotation back from growth, once again into value, goes as far back as in the monthly view, with Financials gaining 7%, followed by a boost  for Materials of 4.1%. Technology came in third with a 3.3% rally. Over this time frame, Communication Services lagged, up just 2.2%.

We admit we found it puzzling that investors would prefer to take a risk on cyclicals considering the Fed is prolonging its full-scale stimulus, which has been benefitting technology shares specifically. The fears surrounding Fed tightening were that Technology, the sector considered long overdue for a correction, would take the brunt of an announcement of a timeline to taper QE. Since no such announcement was forthcoming, we would have expected Tech stocks to receive a boost, not shares associated with the Reflation Trade.

This surprise is underscored by the fact that stocks sensitive to an economic recovery have already outperformed. The Russell 2000 is about 135% from the March 2020 bottom, while the NASDAQ 100 is only 128% up in the same period.

Having said that, the NASDAQ 100’s chart demonstrates a much more decisive bullish presence than the Russell 2000, which has been meandering since its March 2021 record.

NDX Daily
NDX Daily

The mega cap tech index has formed back-to-back continuation patterns within a clear uptrend.

US2000 Daily
US2000 Daily

The Russell has been trendless since notching its March record high, which raises the risk of the index topping out.

On Friday, yields, including for the 10-year benchmark Treasury, fell back.

UST 20Y Daily
UST 20Y Daily

The drop came after rates penetrated the neckline of a potential H&S bottom, on an intraday basis.

Dollar traders priced in a longer wait for the Fed to cut back on available cash, strengthening the greenback.

Dollar Daily
Dollar Daily

The USD distanced itself from the neckline of a massive double-bottom, falling below a rising channel since the July 30 low (green channel), while returning toward the bottom of its more tempered (yellow) rising channel since the June 23 low, having reached its top.

Gold, was buoyed by dollar weakness, threatening a reversal.

Gold Daily
Gold Daily

The yellow metal closed above its falling channel, as well as above both the 100 and 200 DMAs. The chart may be developing a H&S bottom, with the 200 DMA as its natural neckline.

Bitcoin traded in a holding pattern on Friday and Saturday. It was as if investors weren’t sure what to make of the Fed's non-announcement from Jackson Hole, about its fiscal policy path going forward.

BTC/USD Daily
BTC/USD Daily

The cryptocurrency may have completed a falling channel, having found support after breaking the resistance of the 200 DMA.

Dollar weakness lifted oil to more than a two-week high, where it closed above the 100 DMA.

Oil Daily
Oil Daily

However, the commodity is reaching the top of its falling channel, guarded by the 50 DMA, which raises the odds of a lower turnaround.

Economic Calendar

All times listed are EDT

Monday

10:00: US – Pending Home Sales: expected to rise to 0.4% from -1.9%.

21:00: China – Manufacturing PMI: seen to ease to 50.2 from 50.4.

Tuesday

3:55: Germany – Unemployment Change: forecast to jump to -34K from -91K.

5:00: Eurozone – CPI: probably rose to 2.8% from 2.2%.

8:30: Canada – GDP: predicted to jump to 0.7% from -0.3% MoM.

10:00: US – CB Consumer Confidence: anticipated to edge down to 124.0 from 129.1.

21:30: Australia – GDP: forecast to plunge to 0.5% from 1.8% QoQ.

21:45: China – Caixin Manufacturing PMI: likely to slip lower, to 50.2 rom 50.3.

Wednesday

3:55: Germany – Manufacturing PMI: expected to remain flat at 57.3.

4:30: UK – Manufacturing PMI: due to remain at 60.1.

8:15: US – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change: expected to nearly double to 638K from 330K.

10:00: US – ISM Manufacturing PMI: to drop slightly to 58.5 from 59.5.

10:30: US – Crude Oil Inventories: seen to rise to -2.683M from 2.979M.

Thursday

8:30: US – Initial Jobless Claims: predicted to rise to 345K from 353K.

21:30: Australia – Retail Sales: previous reading was -2.7%.

Friday

4:30: UK – Services PMI: to remain flat at 55.5.

8:30: US – Nonfarm Payrolls: forecast to drop to 728K from 943K.

8:30: US – Unemployment Rate: anticipated to edge down to 5.2% from 5.4%.

10:00: US – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: forecast to decline to 61.8 from 64.1.

Week Ahead: As Worst Month For Stocks Nears, Expect Volatility, Adding To Worries
 

Related Articles

Keith Schneider
Sitting On The Dock Of The Bay By Keith Schneider - Oct 17, 2021

I am sure by now you and your family are feeling the effects of rising inflation.  It has manifested itself in just about every aspect of American life…rising food costs, building...

Week Ahead: As Worst Month For Stocks Nears, Expect Volatility, Adding To Worries

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:  

  •            Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.

  •           Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed. 

  •           Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.

  • Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases. Comments that are written in all caps and contain excessive use of symbols will be removed.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and comments containing links will be removed. Phone numbers, email addresses, links to personal or business websites, Skype/Telegram/WhatsApp etc. addresses (including links to groups) will also be removed; self-promotional material or business-related solicitations or PR (ie, contact me for signals/advice etc.), and/or any other comment that contains personal contact specifcs or advertising will be removed as well. In addition, any of the above-mentioned violations may result in suspension of your account.
  • Doxxing. We do not allow any sharing of private or personal contact or other information about any individual or organization. This will result in immediate suspension of the commentor and his or her account.
  • Don’t monopolize the conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also strongly believe in giving everyone a chance to air their point of view. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
Post also to:
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
Comments (18)
Nick Farr
Nick Farr Aug 31, 2021 8:23AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Bitcoin, although analysed deeply and often, is subject to considerable sentiment and emotion (new "rookie" traders by the thousand daily), but fungible as it is, in itself it has no substance. The brilliance of it's conception will inevitably be surpassed by further brilliance in the conception of a better mathematical vehicle of with equally intangible beauty and gravitas. Stock indexes at record highs globally. It's gonna go pop next month. Save yourself. Buy gold.
Modise Mphahlele
Modise Mphahlele Aug 31, 2021 5:51AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Tech way over aswell as S&P . Typical banking trading techniques, them and institutions are driving it high, making retail traders jump in to ride the wave with their pennies and then come September the banks will drop it like a bomb, taking out all the retail junkies, rookies and greedy traders. close all buy positions before the end of Friday NYE session. simple.
Darrell Peterson
Darrell Peterson Aug 31, 2021 3:38AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
the guy lives on Mars , volatiltiy has been expunged from al dictionaries .
gian pau
gian pau Aug 30, 2021 4:39PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
like all analysts they always and only talk about what has already happened and everything is already in the current prices
Doug Favell
Doug Favell Aug 29, 2021 10:33PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
10%+ pullback just to ease the upside pressure for the final upside run into 2022,
Tom Jones
Tom Jones Aug 29, 2021 9:33PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Rotation, rotation, rotation. Barbell or equal weight portfolio required.
Jouni Matero
Jouni Aug 29, 2021 4:51PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Hope this FED creation, biggest fraud market bubble of history, collapses and economy can recovery healthy.
Rob Fordham
Rob Fordham Aug 29, 2021 4:51PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Spoken like someone who doesnt have investment
Tom Jones
Tom Jones Aug 29, 2021 4:51PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Spoken like someone who has a good job.
Ray Steed
Ray Steed Aug 29, 2021 4:10PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
ya cant fight the fed pinky
Nicholas Segalle
Nicholas Segalle Aug 29, 2021 2:57PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Anxiously waiting for the next big 0.5% correction. 🙄
ALEX Sam
ALEX Sam Aug 29, 2021 1:26PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Bearish Week ahead with a Last week drop in commos showing factories bottleneck situation. Delta wave ripple after summer to come but yet increased infection figures already digested by people. Consumers seems ready to spend but logistic is on gridlock. LMI July index showes factories activities increasing but art which cost ? Will the Consumers be the one paying the high price or the factories reducing their profits.
Seun Femi
Seun Femi Aug 29, 2021 1:26PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
hello
Seun Femi
Seun Femi Aug 29, 2021 1:26PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
how are you
Sam Iam
Sam Iam Aug 29, 2021 12:31PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
There is no correction until the market says there's a correction. Smart guys have been calling for a correction and there are none to be seen. The stock market was tired in May and yet, it kept right on climbing into the end of August.
frank zapper
frank zapper Aug 29, 2021 12:27PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
interesting article.
Waqar Aslam
Waqar Aslam Aug 29, 2021 12:13PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Thanx
heshmat howrami
heshmat howrami Aug 29, 2021 11:43AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
thank you Mr Cohen
Todd Gray
Todd Gray Aug 29, 2021 11:20AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
As is generally the case, stats cited here don't mention the offsets, which make them very misleading. Usually, pundit news is dishonest by omission of many facts. But, terror sells. May this country return moral imperatives before it goes beyond the point of no return.
Ronald Warren
Ronald Warren Aug 29, 2021 11:20AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Good luck with the moral imperatives. lol
frank zapper
frank zapper Aug 29, 2021 11:20AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
todd is correct in some of his assumptions of omission. but in general good article.
alfredo abud
alfredo abud Aug 29, 2021 11:12AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Will continue to ATH
Leon Kelly
Leon Kelly Aug 29, 2021 9:32AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Mr. cohen .. Thanks for your homework! The S&P and Dow jones are also melting up. I think sept will be a correction for tech but will it be just for tech?
Tom Jones
Tom Jones Aug 29, 2021 9:32AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Tech is too high a % of SPX. Gonna be tough, tho not impossible, to maintsin SPX ATH pace if large cap tech collapses.
William Hineser
William Hineser Aug 29, 2021 9:24AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
And then there will be the next thing.
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.
Continue with Google
or
Sign up with Email