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Opening Bell: U.S. Futures Take A Breath, Global Markets Slide As Fed Hike Awaited

Published 05/04/2022, 07:35 AM
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  • US markets tread water
  • Oil trades over $105
  • Gold wavers
  • Key Events

    On Wednesday, ahead of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, futures on the Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000 all traded just slightly higher while European shares returned to a selloff. Markets are expecting the Fed to announce a 50 basis point hike, double the usual amount, but traders are keenly awaiting the FOMC statement as well as any comments from its Chair, Jerome Powell on the central bank's future outlook or plans. 

    As a result US Treasury yields moved higher. 

    Global Financial Affairs

    US futures fluctuated this morning between gains and losses but were little changed. In Europe, investors sold off the STOXX 600 Index with miners the worst performing sector.

    STOXX 600 Daily

    The Europe-wide gauge formed possible Evening Star's resistance, a three-day bearish pattern which confirms the earlier top and is supported by the 50 DMA, after finding resistance by the 200 DMA as the 100 DMA came crashing through it.

    Russia's leading benchmark, the MOEX index, gave up initial gains after the European Union confirmed it plans to stop importing Russian oil for the next six months. This action is the sixth tranche of sanctions imposed by the EU in an attempt to break President Vladimir Putin's spirit as he wages war on Ukraine.

    MOEX Daily

    The price found resistance by Monday's Shooting Star, confirming the resistance of a rising flag.

    The EU is also seeking to increase the pressure on Russia by removing Sberbank (MCX:SBER) and two other Russian lenders from the international SWIFT payment system, further cutting off the country from the global financial network.

    While markets in Japan and China remain closed today due to holidays, the remaining indices in Asia finished lower. Hong Kong's Hang Seng underperformed, falling 1.1%, probably under pressure after China's factory output fell by more than expected. Since China's mainland markets have been shut for the long holiday, traders have only been able to offload Chinese stocks on the Hong Kong exchange.

    Treasury yields on the 10-year note continued to be the focus, as they approached the 3% level for the third day in a row. So far, the push beyond that threshold has been repelled. Yields are being pressured as investors increase Treasury holdings while weighing the odds of a higher-than-usual Fed hike today or at the June meeting. Treasuries are also a haven as the war in Ukraine continues.

    The dollar was little changed.

    Dollar Index Daily

    The greenback may be forming a falling flag, bullish after the six-straight daily advance to the USD's strongest position in 20 years.

    Gold edged higher, extending yesterday's advance but then slipped. Commodity analysts are divided on the precious metal's trajectory with some having very contradictory views. There's the view that the yellow metal will rise as a haven amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in Europe as well as because it's an inflation hedge. Others, however, believe the price will fall on the fastest US monetary policy tightening in 22 years. Perhaps, the two themes will offset each other?

    Gold Daily

    The price completed a symmetrical triangle to the downside, falling below the Nov. 16 support. However, the rising trend since August 2021 may provide support. We think gold is more likely to fall rather than rise. If the commodity falls through the uptrend line, we wouldn't be surprised to see it drop to near the $1,700 level.

    Bitcoin rose, wiping out yesterday's losses and pushing to its highest level since last Thursday.

    Bitcoin Daily

    The price continues to struggle on the rising channel bottom as bulls fight the bears after the preceding rising flag. We have been expecting the cryptocurrency to fulfill a large H&S top for months now. 

    Oil climbed amid European plans to wean itself off Russian energy supplies.

    Oil Daily

    The price might have completed a bullish triangle, though we would have been more enthusiastic if there was a decisive move rather than the small price changes seen throughout this week.

    Up Ahead

    • The Bank of England rate decision and briefing on Thursday
    • OPEC+ convenes virtually for its regular meeting on Thursday
    • On Friday US nonfarm payroll figures are published. 

    Market Moves

    Stocks

    Currencies

    Bonds

    • Germany's 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 1.00%
    • Britain's 10-year yield rose three basis points to 1.99%

    Commodities

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