Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond (NYSE:HYG), another risk on / risk off indicator, switched to a cautionary projection about 6 weeks ago when it was slapped downward the moment it touched...

With the Fed making its last announcement of 2017 later today (and Yellen making her last press conference as a Fed member), it should be an interesting Wednesday. I thought I’d point out that...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large treasury speculators sharply cut back on their bullish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest...

The United States 30-Year bond's bearish flag formation.

US Treasuries ran higher from the first half of 2015, completing a 3 Drives pattern in the middle of 2016. This is a reversal pattern and Bonds did just that, reversed. They quickly gave up the entire...

US yields still above downtrend Original post

The gap between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields fell to 57 basis points on Monday (December 4), according to Treasury.gov’s daily data. The dip marks yet another post-recession low for...

From BlackRock: Here’s the moment of truth for Matt Tucker’s predictions–higher interest rates, more inflation–for the 2017 bond market.Scorecard time! In January I laid out...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large treasury speculators raised their bullish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets again this week, according to the latest Commitment...

The steady increase in the US two-year yield as the market unwinds rate-hike expectations in Australia have pushed the US rate above Australia's two-year yield for the first time since late 2000. In...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large speculators raised their net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets last week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data...

The US two-year yield has risen nearly 57 bp so far this year. The Federal Reserve has hiked rates twice and is poised to raise the Fed funds target rate in a few weeks. The 10-year yield has fallen...

Futures positions imply a 92% chance the Fed will hike in Dec and 50% again in March. How will the yield curve respond?Let's start with a discussion of how the short-end of the yield curve will...

The yield curve has flattened considerably over the last year. Will it invert? Where? The following chart explains.US Treasury Yields 5-Year Duration and Shorter I created that chart Tuesday...