Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Are U.S. Treasury yields up or down from a year ago? The answer is yes: Both.Reader David asks: "Are we in a recession? According to the yield curve we might already be. I'm in Cleveland so it is hard...

Whenever we see an inverted yield curve, a recession almost always follows, and that is why many analysts are deeply concerned that the yield curve is currently the flattest that it has been in about...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large treasury speculators further raised their bullish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest...

Summary: Macro economic data is good. It seems likely that rates will be higher in a year and that suggests Treasury yields will also be higher than they are now. But the path between here and higher...

The debate about the value of the Treasury spread for business-cycle analysis is set to intensify in the wake of the latest slide in the difference between the 10-year and 2-year rates. Although the...

The T. Rowe Price Group expects the yield curve to completely flatten in 2018. This is not a surprise as I have been commenting the same way for quite some time. The more important question is how? By...

Yields still above support line (bearish for Treasuries) Original post

The UK government tried very hard to hold on. They had been able to raise $200 million from JP Morgan, a significant sum at that time under those circumstances. The British had also secured an almost...

2017 has seen many hedge fund and portfolio managers send warning signals that an equity market correction is overdue. Overstretched valuations, tighter monetary policies, geopolitical risks, a...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large treasury speculators boosted their net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets last week following a deep decline the previous week,...

Volatility has returned, at least in the junk bond market. SPDR Barclays (LON:BARC) High Yield Bond (NYSE:JNK), and iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond (NYSE:HYG) both had the steepest decline...

You've heard it before, one person’s trash is another’s treasure. Some see a pile of junk while others behold the makings of a masterpiece. It's the same way in the markets where you buy...

First break of confidence for the Bund (FGBL) but only prices below 163 will call the current uptrend into question Original post

Seems like I don’t hear about municipal bonds much anymore. But they have been performing quite well. Their prices cratered going into the 2016 election but almost immediately reversed that...