Can advanced logic offset memory weakness in WFE outlook?

Published 06/07/2025, 06:00 AM
© Reuters

Investing.com -- Barclays analysts remain cautious on the 2026 outlook for wafer fabrication equipment (WFE), maintaining a “flattish view” as potential strength in advanced logic may be offset by weakness in memory.

“There is still debate around WFE expectations into 2026,” Barclays wrote. “We take a close look at potential growth drivers in advanced logic and DRAM as we believe these will be the biggest determining factors.”

In advanced logic, Barclays sees “more leading edge fabs taking equipment for TSMC in 2026 vs 2025 (at least five vs max four),” with TSMC’s 2nm capacity additions “ramping further in 2026.” 

The firm noted, “TSMC has continually flagged better customer engagement for 2nm compared to prior nodes,” and added that “mobile customers could be migrating more quickly than historically.”

While TSMC leads the field, Barclays said Intel’s ramp is “dependent on Panther Lake success,” and that “this is likely to be a 2027 opportunity at the earliest.” 

On Samsung (KS:005930), the note said the company is expected “to add minimal leading edge capacity in 2025,” and that “2H25 will be key in determining whether its capex will be higher in 2026 (we are sceptical at this stage).”

On the memory side, “Samsung’s HBM4 qualification is one of the major question marks.” 

Barclays noted that “failure or delays could see competitors’ spending hold steady or even increase.” Meanwhile, “material China DRAM expansion this year and next... will likely force DRAM makers to focus on tech migrations, limiting any major capacity expansion.”

Barclays concluded, “We see scope for upside in advanced logic but downside risk in memory.”

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