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Tesla Inc (TSLA)

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174.72
-3.09(-1.74%)
Closed
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174.04-0.68(-0.39%)

TSLA Comments

Lot of people with uninformed opions here so lets talk to better understand the future autonomous market. I’ve seen many people on here vastly underestimate the autonomous market and what it will be in the future so I’m writing this people can have a better understanding. First difference needed to be understood is geofenced autonomous vehicles and non-geofenced autonomous vehicles. A geofenced vehicle (like Waymos in AZ) has to have the roads they drive on premapped and can only operate in the area are in their database. Take the Waymo taxi that work in AZ and put it in New Mexico and its scrap metal. Non-geofenced autonomous vehicles (which there are 0 working ones so far) will be able to operate anywhere in the country they are programed for. It is a much harder thing to solve but once solved is much more valuable. Geofenced autonomous can be a taxi networks in specific cities, non-geofenced autonomous changes everything.
boring
I remember when they started to talk about artificial intelligence. I studied in 1990 and used books from 1980s, still developing. I remember people talking about virtual reality 30 years ago. still in development. I remember about 25 years ago about natural language (text to speach, voice recognition). still in development (off corse much beter and siri can understand you mostly in English) . The point is to get 90% right. it takes a few years, to get 99% it takes a decate and for the las .9999 it will take a few decades. fully automation around the world (india, brazil etc) will take 2 decades.
Frank, thanks for the thoughtful reply, and I agree full automation will take decades to develop, but Mobile Eye was formed in 1999 and have been working on the problem since then, you know two decades ago. The current leaders software is already att 99.999 reliable and will get that last 9 in the next few years. Waymo had less than one intervention per 13,000 miles and that was in 2019. I agree it was a problem that takes 2 to 3 decades to get there but people haven't been paying attention they've been working for 2 of those 2 to 3 decades already.
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