Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The chart above looks at the yield on the 10-year note (TNX) “Inverted.” The 10-year yield has remained inside of rising channel (1) for the past 25 years and rising channel (2) for the...

In this article titled “A Useful Inflation Indicator (and a Decent Bond Market Model)” – dated 12/14/2017 – I wrote about a simple model that, as the name implies, has a decent...

A couple of days ago we witnessed a sell-off in the stock market that drove yields down. Long-term US treasury holders had 5-15% gain, however now it seems like sell-off moved from stock to bond...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators sharply added to their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment...

As the S&P 500 declined 4.1% in dramatic fashion on Monday, the futures on the 10-year notes (/ZN) gained 1.16 points or 1%. This “flight to safety” trade is common when equities...

Mediocre demand for Wednesday’s auction of $24 billion in 10-year Treasury notes probably reflects worries over rising deficit spending.In that auction, yields obviously were not attractive...

The Bank of England meets on Thursday and while no one expects a move, it has little to do with the recent market volatility. The FTSE 100 is poised to snap a six-day 7%+ slide. The FTSE 250 fell for...

I’ve recently been seeing a certain defense of equities that I think is interesting. It runs something like this: The recent rise in interest rates, which helped cause the stock market swoon, is...

On Friday, the market finally woke up to the reality of rising rates. The truth is that Central Banks have been printing money for too long, maintaining “emergency” levels of QE despite...

Fierce forces at work on interest rates…or are we just seeing a mild adjustment? There is no way to know. We are referring to US Treasury interest rates on bills, notes and bonds. Some bullets...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond market speculators continued to remain very bearish in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of...

It’s hard to believe that 10-year yields in the US have doubled in the last 18 months. It’s the last 50bps, taking us from 2.35% to 2.84% since December, that has received the most...

The single-most important bond in the world is the US 10-Year Treasury bond.According to modern financial theory, this bond, with a duration that is meant to cover a full economic cycle, is generally...

Some claim the yield curve is flattening, others say it's steepening. The steepening side started to gain more credibility from January 2. With U.S. yields on a tear, one might think the curve is...