Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Most investors are fairly familiar with the concept of seasonality in the stock market, with aphorisms such as "sell in May" baked into the market consciousness. But what about the bond market?...

After a big rally in recent months, 10-year Treasury yields are giving out signs of fatigue – at least near term.Interest rates have suddenly become the talk of the town. Ten-year yields rallied...

US 10 Year T-Note Futures Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators cut back on their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest...

Is the bond bull market of the past 30-years over? Are we seeing just the start of a trend higher in interest rates or are they about to blast off? This isn’t the million dollar question, its...

Some times Junk bonds can give quality hints to the next short & long-term move in stocks. Junk bonds look to be sending both of those signals again. The next two charts share long and short-term...

The current “debt ceiling” has been suspended until March 2019. The current amount of Treasury debt outstanding is $20.681 trillion, and it has been estimated it will be as high as $22...

The US reports January CPI figures later today. The market seems especially sensitive to it. The main narrative is that it is an inflation scare spurred by the jump in January average hourly earnings...

Bond prices are falling. They have been falling since the middle of 2016. Their prices are now off almost 20%. Bond Kings Bill Gross and Jeff Gundlach are calling the end of the 30 year bull market...

The chart above looks at the yield on the 10-year note (TNX) “Inverted.” The 10-year yield has remained inside of rising channel (1) for the past 25 years and rising channel (2) for the...

In this article titled “A Useful Inflation Indicator (and a Decent Bond Market Model)” – dated 12/14/2017 – I wrote about a simple model that, as the name implies, has a decent...

A couple of days ago we witnessed a sell-off in the stock market that drove yields down. Long-term US treasury holders had 5-15% gain, however now it seems like sell-off moved from stock to bond...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators sharply added to their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment...

As the S&P 500 declined 4.1% in dramatic fashion on Monday, the futures on the 10-year notes (/ZN) gained 1.16 points or 1%. This “flight to safety” trade is common when equities...

Mediocre demand for Wednesday’s auction of $24 billion in 10-year Treasury notes probably reflects worries over rising deficit spending.In that auction, yields obviously were not attractive...