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Carbon Emissions Futures - Dec 21 (CFI2Z1)

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51.07 +1.13    +2.26%
07/05 - Closed. Currency in EUR ( Disclaimer )
Type:  Commodity
Group:  Energy
Unit:  1 Tonne
  • Prev. Close: 49.94
  • Open: 49.94
  • Day's Range: 49.41 - 51.10
Carbon Emissions 51.07 +1.13 +2.26%
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Carbon Emissions Futures Discussions

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Lancatsr Ben
Lancatsr Ben 19 hours ago
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Th rocket is nowhere near a stop.
Mike Reitsma
Mike Reitsma May 07, 2021 5:37AM ET
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Before the end of year this will be at 100. EU climate policy forces it. Hop on the train!
Le Mt
Le Mt 22 hours ago
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No way!! Back to 40 in December!!
Mike Reitsma
Mike Reitsma 21 hours ago
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Us two aren't experts. But have a look on Lawson Steele his twitteraccount
Jakub Barej
Jakub Barej May 01, 2021 8:48AM ET
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Shorter squezzed. Now Big Fishes can sell EUA into Indian version of Covid.
Olaf Kleen
Olaf Kleen May 01, 2021 8:48AM ET
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...in any other market would agree - giant short squeeze. This case though - think this goes to a level where real reduction gets incentivized - say somwhere 50-60 - and stays there or rises above for a while. Don’t think a 30something handle will ever occur again. Governenents and the rest of the world want this to be high.
Aman Ullah
Aman Ullah Apr 29, 2021 10:49AM ET
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In which exchange you guys are trading?
Olaf Kleen
Olaf Kleen Apr 29, 2021 10:49AM ET
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ICE futures
JBM Mas
JBM Mas Apr 21, 2021 11:47AM ET
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how looks pattern for this future?
Olaf Kleen
Olaf Kleen Apr 20, 2021 12:16PM ET
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Dax down, yet Carbon closing on a new high. Might be that the underlying argument of this having to be higher really is stronger than the actual overboughtness of the surrounding markets. Inpressive perfromance today. Good call Arg thinking this could break higher..
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Apr 20, 2021 12:16PM ET
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Although I like the last part, I'm still with 40% of my original Feb shorts! I'm fed up with it. Will wait for the retracement and close those as well in order move on! There goes my APR target down the drain! :-(
Lancatsr Ben
Lancatsr Ben Apr 20, 2021 12:16PM ET
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Arg Bouras  A retracement ?? or not yet ?
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Apr 20, 2021 12:16PM ET
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Lancatsr Ben not yet and not in sight! I'm out of all my shorts as of now. A BIG thank you to USD/CAD for that. The pain is over and I'm out of Emissions till logic returns! lol That was the hardest in the 2 years I trade. Never violate your rules and SL is the holy grail together with risk management. I cancelled my SL @40 back in Feb and paid the price. Good luck from now on.
Olaf Kleen
Olaf Kleen Apr 14, 2021 12:11PM ET
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Hmm... I am currently now and here neutral. I exited my long that I had from 41.80 yesterday at 44.21. I still see this higher - eventually - but right here I am more careful - mostly not because of the product itself but because of my general macro opinion. I think equities have priced in A LOT of positivity here and may lack the power to go higher after quarterly numbers. Somehow into summer I think this could seriously retreat. If it does - i think clean energy shares like Ballard Power will get hit hard as they are frothy here. Once the sector starts waning a bit - people will start to take profit and sell this as well. Not a sure case - but this has been super profitable and I will rather lean back and watch this whilst zipping some well earned champagne ;-))
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Apr 14, 2021 12:11PM ET
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I loved the last part Olaf! Hence the like on your comment. I'm with you. By the way some days back I made friend request to you over at Lxxxx In (the algo here won't let me write it).....if it is you! lol
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Apr 14, 2021 12:11PM ET
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Talking about positions and price. So far this month I did not manage to close any of my shorts. However price seems to be in range here for almost 10 days now @~43.50-44.50. This might be a consolidation phase (4H ATR dropped from 0.6862 on APR 6th to 0.5297. The lowest since FEB21 and almost at levels of DEC20). So big move is probably on the way. Now if we believe that someone that wants the carbon capture technology to be economically viable and can spare a few €B then it will go up. Or even if most of the 11k companies that need the Carbon allowances sold them with the pandemic slowdown and now want them back. On the other hand that probable move would be to the.....South pole! As we see this forum as well is going quieter lately so maybe they lost interest. Needless to say which direction I put my money on.  So I will keep bitting my nails till this move happens and hope for the best. Lol, great strategy but that's it.
Olaf Kleen
Olaf Kleen Apr 14, 2021 12:11PM ET
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Hi Arg, it is me and I connected with you on L’inghed in. ;-.. I hope you make money on your shorts. For you and also for me - I want to be long this stuff again but preferably at lower levels. And as said not trusting the market as a whole very much at the moment - so much irrational exuberance wherever you look at. A proper wash out would clear the air which would be much needed..
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Apr 14, 2021 12:11PM ET
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Olaf Kleen This month my target was low anyway from past experience. My shorts will be there as I see it for another 2-3 months as I don't want to ruin my monthle targets. Provided of course I continue to make profital moves with the other instruments. Since I made the mistake some months ago when I cancelled my SL @40 believing I know better and violating my own risk management rules this is the only thing I can do. For the market it is true and that goes for stocks as well. I see NASDAQ stocks as well being overbought. I think a general metldown is on-the-making. I also think that commodities (mainly soft) will survive that meltdown and this is where I plan to focus in the next few months.
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Apr 14, 2021 12:11PM ET
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*monthly *profitable
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Apr 14, 2021 5:23AM ET
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Strange price action for second day. Either the climate good-Samaritans run out of funds, as I can't think of anybody else with good intentions buying this thing or they are up to something here. I still don't dare to think that it is reversal time! Actually I might open a long position to ensure reversal! lol
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Apr 09, 2021 4:43AM ET
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161795775984389.jpg
So it seems we have a 24h support at 43.40 and a descending triangle forming. Now if I did not monitor this instrument for some time now I would say it will surely go down. But have my doubts and only hope that it might reach ~42.85 at best. Then will go up again respecting the massive uptrend that started almost 6 months ago and somehow still finds fuel to continue! :-(
Olaf Kleen
Olaf Kleen Apr 06, 2021 3:05AM ET
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Emissions article in today’s FT: https://on.ft.com/3mp9p3P - european steel companies sold their free emissions certificates into market to raise cash - but somehow need them back now..
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Apr 06, 2021 3:05AM ET
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So the question is what do we do now? I mean I can't buy this thing in this price. As I see it, it might retrace to ~42.30 and then head back north again. With that in mind I did earlier the large position-small dip thing with a short. Although happy with it, it's hard labour to keep watching price action by the minute to figure out where to TP. I don't know. Even if I did not have my old shorts open, I would not touch it till it goes back close to the 0.382 Mo Fib.
Olaf Kleen
Olaf Kleen Apr 06, 2021 3:05AM ET
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It’s always a tough call. But real physical shorts - and according to the article in some serious size makes me wonder how many of these players are out there who sold their free allowances for cash - to buy them back later in the hope they’ll be lower. Clearly has worked quite a few years - but must be painful to be short in the 100s of millions and watch this go from strength to strength. Still think as well there’s a chance we crawl up towards the decissions in June. Am keeping a medium sized long here with a “long haul view”. Should we accelerate and hit somewhere 50-55 I’ll get out for the time being. Before that it makes sense to me as a “long term investment” within a portfolio of equities, currencies and metals. By the way - to Arg: which broker do you use? I use interactive brokers. They have good access to most markets and are seriously cheap in terms of fees.
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Apr 06, 2021 3:05AM ET
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Olaf Kleen I use Plus500 and IB was my second pick back in 2019 when I looked at brokers. I did not like their tradestation back then. I think I have an account with them though from 2019. I will check it. Holding fees is a problem with Plus500. Good think is they have zero bank charges and are Cyprus based which is good for money transfers for me and they have a huge selection of CFDs which is what I want to trade not the real thing.
Olaf Kleen
Olaf Kleen Mar 31, 2021 5:43AM ET
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A bit of a tough call here. Fundamentally a bullish product still - and could see upwards momentum towards EU decission in June. Also it struggles to really sell off - but as it has a long run behind it could be fizzing out momentum. Has also done significant move which could mean we need to consolidate more before upside could be ahead again. All that being said - if it suddenly does start to run towards 50-55 - where it should eventually go - I would hate it too much to not be long. So - small long initiated yesterday. Would increase this to about 3-4 times if we have a prolonged bear move with levels around 37, 34 and 31. What are your current opinions?
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Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Mar 31, 2021 5:43AM ET
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By the way there this probably some meat left for shorts at USDCAD still.
Olaf Kleen
Olaf Kleen Mar 31, 2021 5:43AM ET
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Haha... there we go again the two of us. I am scratching my toes to buy more... and I also sold some USD vs EUR because I recon we have ridden that puppy a long way and the massive yield rise may at least temprarily have run its course... the interesting thing is though we tend to have contrarian opinions it seems we both tend to make money. Prime example of how a different approach can make money even if one doesn’t get the general direction right... ;-)
Olaf Kleen
Olaf Kleen Mar 31, 2021 5:43AM ET
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Which way are you going CAD/USD? Haven’t looked at this before - was more in the aussie vs USD. Long term chart looks (if I get that the right way round) like the CAD should get weaker - meaning 1.40 seems more likely than 1.15 - looking at long term charts. BUT - fundamentally I think USD will get weaker. So in all fairness too confusing for me here - and I don’t know enough. Wondering if precious metals - gold silver - have been sold too much. But that’s most likely the same as saying USD should weaken again.
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Mar 31, 2021 5:43AM ET
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Olaf Kleen true about our positions. My approach however is more simplistic for carbon Emissions only which I think is a "special" instrument. I trust more the known territory than the uncharted territory. Meaning that I feel safer to trade for the price to go back to values it used to be!
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Mar 31, 2021 5:43AM ET
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For the USD/CAD I see the trend being bearish. I closed all my positions now. Due to the closing dates of the commodity contracts I have to trade some FOREX in order to achieve my monthly target. I don't like trading FOREX at all. Now about Silver   I still don't touch it unless it approaches 23.60-23.70. I bought and sold intraday the other time ~@25. For Gold I don't like the fees my broker charges and I don't really trade it unless I see some really good opportunity. I wait for SB and KC to start trading the new contracts. They make me good money usually.
Olaf Kleen
Olaf Kleen Mar 25, 2021 11:15AM ET
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sh.. I hope you kept some overall short.. question to me now is where it becomes a buy again. I might dip my toe in again around 37 if it gets there..
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Mar 25, 2021 11:15AM ET
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Good day today. I sold a few shorts with profit at last. Still have 70% of my original shorts! However I have a small long set up @39.19 (also have tiny ones @41.18 & @42.21 but they make no difference really). If we get @37 I will open normal longs. The problem now for me is Nasdaq! lol I made good money a couple of days ago and since then everything is collapsing! lol
Olaf Kleen
Olaf Kleen Mar 24, 2021 5:13AM ET
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I sort of agree - I do still want to be long of this stuff - eventually - but currently I could see this come off more. There is an underlying seasonality in European Power and Gas where prices tend to come off from now into summer to then pick up later. I did not find this in emissions - but they do sonetimes get dragged along when there are no real drivers on its own. I still don’t want to be short - as I am fundamentally quite bullish - but I am fairly happy to be flat - which in my case is a pretty bearish view of things.
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Mar 24, 2021 5:13AM ET
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You made me think bullish too Olaf! lol
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Mar 24, 2021 5:13AM ET
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In each major drop I keep opening small longs!
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Mar 24, 2021 3:35AM ET
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161657121651642.jpg
These two wicks suggest this is not like the other times. It seems to be the start of a serious retracement! Let's see coz I've been wrong before.
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Mar 24, 2021 3:35AM ET
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If we break with a powerful move the level of ~40.85 then we are heading south for good!
Leonidas Ntioukas
Leonidas Ntioukas Mar 24, 2021 3:35AM ET
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The timeframe is hourly? Also I am curious to know, what makes these two wicks so special that they indicate the reversal? Thank you for your insights!
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Mar 24, 2021 3:35AM ET
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Leonidas Ntioukas  To proetoimasa sta ellinika alla den to dexetai. Opote to kano GrEnglish. Nai einai 1H. Einai kati pou den to exoyme xanadei dyo fores toso konta i akrivos epano se 14d support. Se syndiasmo me to H&S ******stoixeia mazeyontai mazi. To epipedo ~40.85 episis theoro pos einai simantiko afoy ekei exoyn xanabei buyers. Pisteyo pos ligo pio kato apo ekei einai ta SL ton teleytaion agoraston i ta trailing SL ayton poy exoyn kerdi poy den theloyn na xasoyn. Gia na doyme, opos eipa borei na kano lathos. Ayta! lol
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Mar 23, 2021 10:43AM ET
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Father I've sinned! I opened longs @41.64! ...equal to 2/3 of the shorts I closed!
mehmet ali günay
mehmet ali günay Mar 23, 2021 10:43AM ET
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wow , what a reversal
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Mar 23, 2021 10:43AM ET
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16165112549456.jpg
16165112549456.jpg mehmet ali günay although we have a H&S formation I had to do it. I can't just sit and watch anymore. Actualy this is due to my shorts from Sugar so I got back on my feet again! lol
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Mar 23, 2021 10:43AM ET
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I forgot to mention that I still hold 85% of my original shorts!
mehmet ali günay
mehmet ali günay Mar 23, 2021 10:43AM ET
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Arg Bouras  thanks for the graph. im still short @42. high correlation w oil and looking for 3rd Covid wave (y)
Olaf Kleen
Olaf Kleen Mar 18, 2021 3:37AM ET
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Point by point: saucer theory wise a run to 55 and then a massive reversal potentially even back to the low 30’s is possible. Not a must - but technically definetly possible. Then as for the arguments: for the utilities the carbon price is mostly not an issue. Carbon gets priced directly into the wholesale electricity price. The daily price gets set where the least expensive unit produces for this particular demand. So a gas plant will calculate price of gas plus price of carbon, slap a margin on top and offer there. Price settles below they don’t produce - so don’t need to buy the carbon. So not an issue for utilities - gets passed on to the customer. For the rest of the companies its a problem. Yet the planet heating up is one to - and there lies a political fight. CCS does already work - Chevron and Shell eg have a big unit in Alberta. It’s contested - but without it no 55% possible. Is it speculative? Well less than e.g. TSLA - still shorting has been tough mostly...
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Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Mar 18, 2021 3:37AM ET
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Olaf Kleen  for silver I have a buy order in place @25.35. It is in an uptrend since June (taken out the covid first drop). I'm also out of all other positions now I'm just hunting on my watchlist for oportunities. Here is the chart I have for XAG https://invst.ly/u6s4m
Olaf Kleen
Olaf Kleen Mar 18, 2021 3:37AM ET
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Agree on silver. Potential downside of about a USD with potential upside back to the all time high of 50 USD. Am small long already would buy more if it drops to about your bid level.
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Mar 18, 2021 3:37AM ET
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Olaf Kleen right now I'm in damage control mode. If our beloved Carbon emissions rises to 50 then things would be really bad for my account. So after I liquidated 5% of my positions the previous days, I have to only enter trades that I'm sure (or think I am) for the outcome. On my radar right now due to the short expiry dates of contracts of various commodities, I look mostly at stocks.  Right now I'm monitoring Deutche Post (from which in the last few days I made huge profit which is all gone now to fund Carbon), Taiwan Semiconductor, Nuance Communications and Marvell. For all those I have set positions. The plan is to stay with stocks till Apr 12-15 when the commodities new contracts start trading with my broker.
Schruh den Vester
Schruh den Vester Mar 18, 2021 3:37AM ET
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Olaf Kleen It's an industrial metal for which demand is increasing. It's also speculative investment. It appears to be manipulated downwards, but IMO it will break out this year to $35-40+ as industrial demand is likely to increase further. Seperately, I expect BTC to fizzle out as India, China and other countries ban it. There's already legislation going through the Indian parliament. If China do the same, that will be nearly half the planet's population banned from using BTC, can't see it above $10K this time next year IMO.
Olaf Kleen
Olaf Kleen Mar 18, 2021 3:37AM ET
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I think I would hold on a little to a short if I had it here. Seems to struggle to push higher here - and we had a long run. Fair chance it comes off a bit. If it does though - I would personally not to squeeze the downside too hard. Think as you said there’s a fair chance of more upside towards June (unless we get a general “everything” sell off which is not impossible given that things out there like bitcoin, gamestop etc. are still at binkers price levels)
Olaf Kleen
Olaf Kleen Mar 17, 2021 9:39AM ET
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Right - time for a bull comment to not fall into a to one sided and self confirmatory bias here. First the disclosure - I am currently flat as I think this has run a fair bit. But I find it extremely hard to remain flat - because essentially I am still utterly bullish this product. Yes - market has jumped up a lot here - but I still think this is just the start and has at least a run to 50-55 coming in the medium term future. It’s still based on fundamentals. The current level does not incentivise enough of a reduction in Emissions. Only from 50 Euros upwards do we start to build Carbon Capture and Storage in a decent size. Without that - we’ll never get a 55% reduction in emissions vs 1990 until 2030 as wanted by the EU. Clearly they don’t want specs to make money - but it ain’t really that easy. Registry rules are not going to do this for holders of the futures contract. To block this would mean a severe disruptions of markets - I doubt the EU will risk this. Would never short this.
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Mar 17, 2021 9:39AM ET
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Price so far confirms your theory. So after doing a bit of homework and if we assume that 50 is the target. When that should be reached is the question? My understanding is that right now the EU climate plan is based on three pillars of which one is the Emissions Trading System (the other two being Effort sharing amongst member states and the land use). The EU is not discussing about carbon capture technologies (at least not as long as the Greens have political power in Germany) which is actually still in the research phase thus one can only speculate where the price to jump start a new sector of the economy really is, to make commitments on it (from the EU side I mean).
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Mar 17, 2021 9:39AM ET
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So coming back to the when we “should” reach the goal of 50, the commission will present their new plan for the 55% reduction in June 2021. With the price continuing to go as it goes, by then we will be grosso modo at 55 (say +4 each month for 3 remaining months, from 43 now). The disruption to those 11000 companies (that are not the size of the neighbourhood corner store) that participate in the ETS is HUGE. These companies make billions of EUR in turnover and are utilities serving almost half a billion customers in the EU alone! Let alone that most of them are listed in the stock market. I don’t think they will accept that without a fight. From lobbyists, to hedge funds to whatever else they can think of. They will surely fight. In addition as this whole thing affects the price of energy that we all pay in the EU no government will want to take on the political cost of sudden (88% EUA increase from Nov20) energy price increases (to a margin of the 88% depending on their pricing mix).
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Mar 17, 2021 9:39AM ET
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So bottom line. Yes the price of EUA should go up and it’s planned and taken into account by the industries affected. What we are seeing here with 90% increase in the last few months in my eyes is pure speculation. Speculation has an expiry date (hopefully short) as the opposing force is fighting for survival not to increase its’ already huge profits. Major correction or even reversal will come. When and how big I don’t know. Of course I might be wrong and missing key information here.
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Mar 17, 2021 9:39AM ET
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Lol! I forgot to mention. WIth price action like that, when price on the 1D TF reaches approx half way between 20 and 50MA I'm starting to open longs!!!
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Mar 17, 2021 9:39AM ET
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A friend working in the EU just told me that the European council is NOT in favour of carbon capture in the targets but the EU council is! Tomorrow the Portuguese presidency will make announcements on the progress! Tough fight he told me within the EU. They are considering as a means of compromise to have separate targets for carbon capture if it comes to this!
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Mar 17, 2021 5:13AM ET
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The "battle of 42" continues. It's that area where support turned resistance. I admire the Bulls for the fight they are putting up. Greed is a great motivator (I know well about that). The outcome of this battle will be crucial for future price movement. If the Bulls win, then the Bears will wait them at ~42.50. If the Bears win the current battle the Bulls wait for them at ~41.50. Like watching somekind of sport.
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Mar 16, 2021 4:16AM ET
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Looked at the recent retracements, in my anxious quest for some "proof" that this is wrong and is going down...at some point. Probably to justify my shorts! https://invst.ly/u5tp9
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Mar 16, 2021 4:16AM ET
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I forgot to mention that the dotted line is the Fib 0.382...
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Mar 16, 2021 4:16AM ET
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Monthly Fib 0.382
Matej Simončič
Matej Simončič Mar 15, 2021 8:15AM ET
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Any new comments on CO2, there are still no signs to stop this growing trend ... Can we see it on 45 EUR in few days?
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Mar 15, 2021 8:15AM ET
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Everything is possible. My view is that this thing went too fast up to a place it should be in two years.
Marko Bregar
Marko Bregar Mar 15, 2021 8:15AM ET
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Arg Bouras   I concure with Arg, its a price closer to 2023 levels. Heated debates in EU working groups on how to steam the CO2 specilative investors, should put a lind on the price... soon...
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Mar 15, 2021 8:15AM ET
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Marko Bregar I hope that this "soon" will be REALLY soon! lol
Matej Simončič
Matej Simončič Mar 15, 2021 8:15AM ET
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Arg Bouras  and Marko Bregar Though I would love if CO2 would go on like this. I agree with you that this is much too high in this moment. Problem is you just never know on CO2....
Seller Beware
Seller Beware Mar 11, 2021 12:59PM ET
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All I can say, this market has gone to zero before. This could very well be "the big short".
Olaf Kleen
Olaf Kleen Mar 11, 2021 12:59PM ET
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Nope mate - zero was a significantly oversupplied market where more certificates than actual emissions had been given out. Politics have come to grabs with this over the last 14yrs and keep, know very well by now what actual emissions are (Phase 1 problem was utilities lying about their emissions in the past) and keep reducing the actual supply of permissions continuously. Zero is in this case not a possibility anymore.
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Mar 11, 2021 3:56AM ET
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Had a look at the volume and tried to find a pattern. If what I noticed is true and correct we expect an explosion of volume again in the next few days. https://invst.ly/u3yar
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Olaf Kleen
Olaf Kleen Mar 11, 2021 3:56AM ET
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Truth be told though I personally reduced my long position to 40% - the core I always want to hold - today as this may be going up a little too quickly.
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Mar 11, 2021 3:56AM ET
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Olaf Kleen  every year at the end of the year the volume is higher. Nice to hear that you are still long. At least someone is wining. I made the same thing with the volume on the monthly and still the av volume is x3 on the last months of the year. See here: https://invst.ly/u43k7 It's evident that suddently hedge funds, comercials, redditors and I don't know who else became interested in CE. We can tell from this forum which was basically "dead" and now it isn't. It might be as you say although I really don't think such sudden moves can be "tolerated" by governments or industries. Also another thing I remember was a similar situation with the stock of NIO some months before when Citron (a hedge fund) shorted the stock. That lasted for 1 month or something if I remember correctly. As you mentioned before this seems to be the second step up and we expect another one. Let's see what happens.
Olaf Kleen
Olaf Kleen Mar 11, 2021 3:56AM ET
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Yeah.,, governements are stuck between a rock and a hard place. They don’t want specs to get rich on it. And most importantly they don’t want it up too quivkly as this becomes very disruptive for the industry of heavy emitters. On the other side though - there is the 55% reduction goal and they need it to be high enough fast enough for the new technology to be profitable enough to be used on a large scale by 2030.Lagarde said the disruption even of fast rising prices would be tolerable when the future of the planet is at stake - and von der Leyen will probably go along with that. The heightened volume makes sense - phase 4 really now is a tight one and eventually it will have to be higher (whenever that may be) - so I guess it is a good investment case. And for once (opposite to bitcoin) speculation actually has a positive impact as higher emissions mean there’ll be less of them.. I am keeping a core long until it is somewhere above 50 -not sure at all about timing and path towards it
Olaf Kleen
Olaf Kleen Mar 11, 2021 3:56AM ET
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Very interesting point with the larger interest in the forum and the outside world. I have been trading this stuff for a while though - since 2006 when it started - then. as a professional trader for EDF. But - since I retired to trade my own stuff I never again touched it until last autumn - so true - it does call in additional interest in my case as well.
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Mar 11, 2021 3:56AM ET
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Olaf Kleen well that explains your deep knowledge about EUA and thank you for sharing it with us.
Olaf Kleen
Olaf Kleen Mar 10, 2021 7:24AM ET
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Hmm... new highs. A bit scary that we could get a bit of vertigo here. But apart from what I mentioned before seeing this quite a bit higher eventually - at some point you have the real physical shorts kicking in. I think utilities etc. that physically need the certificates may have held off here buying it because it is “high on speculation” after the article about Northlander / Andurand drove it higher. But eventually these guys need to really buy it again because by the end of years they have to hand in the certificates. Difficult to estimate the overall positions in the market specs vs hedgers - but my guess would be there is not too much of free flow availabale for the hedgers to cover their natural shorts. Am warily bullish here.
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Mar 10, 2021 7:24AM ET
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maybe is time to call the Redditors against this hedge fund! lol
Olaf Kleen
Olaf Kleen Mar 10, 2021 7:24AM ET
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It’s been done... but they seem to be rather on the squeezing it up side: https://www.montelnews.com/en/story/reddit-investors-mull-investment-in-carbon-on-rising-prices/1194876
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Mar 10, 2021 7:24AM ET
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Olaf Kleen oh man! I am doomed!
Afroberliner Afrohifi
Afroberliner Afrohifi Mar 09, 2021 11:37AM ET
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Yap this been escalating pretty fast of late. Still married to my two shorts from 39:22. hoping for a Gap down tomorrow. nut not so optimistic!
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Tatiana Marxová
Tatiana Marxová Mar 09, 2021 11:37AM ET
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Arg Bouras do you still believe the price of carbon will reduce?
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Mar 09, 2021 11:37AM ET
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nope but what choice do I have? You can't buy at current levels. Below 38 maybe but now?
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Mar 09, 2021 11:37AM ET
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Tatiana Marxová
Tatiana Marxová Mar 09, 2021 11:37AM ET
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Thanks Arg, still believe the price will go down myself, there was the same peak mid February. We are not Planning to buy now, will hold the horse for the moment....
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Mar 09, 2021 11:37AM ET
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Tatiana Marxová good decision. I'm still trying to figure out how to exit....green from this.
Arg Bouras
Arg Bouras Mar 09, 2021 11:16AM ET
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Rocket fuel ignited! Ouch!
 
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