Iran conflict latest: Trump says Iranian negotiators "begging" for peace deal
U.S. stock index futures climbed on Thursday, driven by tech giants Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Meta (NASDAQ:META). Microsoft jumped nearly 9% in premarket trading after predicting strong growth for its Azure cloud business, while Meta rose 6.3% thanks to higher-than-expected revenue fueled by strong ad performance.
Strong results from Microsoft and Meta eased worries about the uncertain business and economic outlook caused by unpredictable U.S. tariff changes and the growing trade war with China.
While many companies have cut or withdrawn their forecasts, S&P 500 earnings are still expected to rise 11.5% in the first quarter, up from the 7.8% forecast earlier in April, according to LSEG data.
This has been welcomed by market participants after yesterday's US GDP data print which showed the US economy contracted in Q1 raising recessionary fears. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier today that the administration expects to see the GDP print revised when the final number is released.
Earnings are expected to continue after the market closes, with big hitters Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) reporting.
Source: Interactive investor
On the FX front, the US Dollar has continued its recovery with the greenback climbing 1.1% to 144.62 to the yen. The Yen faced pressure on Thursday after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) cut growth forecasts due to U.S. tariffs and kept interest rates unchanged.
Elsewhere, GBP is starting Thursday’s North American session unchanged against the US Dollar, performing better than all G10 currencies except the Euro. This came about after a positive PMI print in the European session.
Gold has continued its slide today, finding support just above the $3200/oz handle.
Market sentiment continues to improve on hopes of a US-China trade deal. For now this narrative is the major driving force of market moves while positive earnings will only aid the current recovery in risk assets.
Economic Data Releases
For now the US calendar awaits PMI due in a short while which could have a short-term impact on market moves. However, judging by yesterday's GDP release and market reaction, it is clear that tariffs are overshadowing data releases.
Tomorrow the week will come to a close with NFP jobs report data from the US.
Chart of the Day - Nasdaq 100
From a technical standpoint, the Nasdaq 100 is a whisker away from the key psychological 20000 handle. In pre-market trade, the index touched a high 19932 before falling somewhat since the US open.
WIll Apple and Amazon be the catalyst for a break higher or will we see another pullback?
US equities have also been largely driven by tariff developments. As it stands the improved sentiment and hopes of a US-China deal has set up the earnings reports from the 'Magnificent 7' perfectly to have a notable impact.
However, if we are to see a poor earnings report and forward guidance from Apple and Amazon, i still believe a selloff may be short-lived given the improving risk appetite.
Immediate resistance rests at 20000 but a host of hurdles lie just abit higher with the 20207 and 20484 handle both likely to prove tough hurdles to overcome.
A pullback from here will have to navigate past the 19436 handle before the selloff gains traction in my opinion. Below that support rests at 19123 and 18852 respectively.
Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart, May 1, 2025
Source: TradingView.com
