Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Investors in U.S. Treasuries are shrugging off inflation worries and keeping yields well-contained. They seem to accept the argument from Federal Reserve policymakers that the recent increase in...

In recent weeks, I’ve been building models that estimate a theoretical “fair value” for the world’s most important interest rate: the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield (see here...

Treasury investors have been lulled into a complacency that may or may not be well-founded. The June jobs report, due out Friday, will grab some attention but is unlikely to lead to any strong shift...

Nearly every slice of the major asset classes recovered last week from the previous week’s correction, based on a set of exchange traded funds through Friday’s close (June 25). The main...

Investors left no doubt in anyone’s mind that they like bonds from the European Union as they ordered €142 billion of the first bonds in the pandemic recovery program, prompting the banks...

US high yield bond spreads are near historic lows amid a strong macro backdrop The Fed’s future actions could put upward pressure on the US HY OAS, but we believe that to be a ways...

The sharp drop in Treasury yields in the past week is worrisome on its own, but what's most troubling is the total absence of any compelling explanation for what's happened. We look at the different...

The European Central Bank seems to be taking its cues from the Federal Reserve, so the ECB governing council’s decision last week to keep its monetary policy accommodative is a good hint about...

Government bonds seem to have entered the summer doldrums as yields in the U.S., Europe, and Japan stay in a narrow range. A meeting this week of the European Central Bank governing council and next...

Bond investors have been fixated on the amount of the Federal Reserve’s asset purchases and the possible impact of the Fed reducing those purchases, removing a price support and perhaps causing...

Many longtime readers know that I’ve remained skeptical about China’s economy for a couple years now. And while the mainstream financial media hasn’t worried much over China’s...

One thing’s for sure: the two channel lines I put down for the bonds (TLT) a while ago have been doing a yeoman’s job designating support and resistance levels.

After rebounding sharply from pandemic lows, the 10-year Treasury yield is nearly back to levels that prevailed before COVID-19 began to roil the global economy in early 2020.But the 10-year rate has...

Taper Is Coming: Got Bonds? The solid economic recovery and easing of COVID restrictions lead us to believe a tapering of QE may not be far off. Further supporting our opinion, inflation has fully...