Breaking News

Ad-Free Version. Upgrade your Investing.com experience. Save up to 40% More details

Watch Treasuries: When Up Is So Down

By Tim KnightBondsMar 03, 2021 03:41PM ET

www.investing.com/analysis/watch-treasuries-when-up-is-so-down-200564792

Watch Treasuries: When Up Is So Down

By Tim Knight | Mar 03, 2021 03:41PM ET

Saved. See Saved Items.

This article has already been saved in your Saved Items

I find this fascinating: examine the symbol FR:T10Y2Y, the 10-year rate minus the 2-year rate. This concoction has done a crackerjack job of predicting every single recession, and the most recent is no exception. I have tinted each instance when this data point went negative, and then reversed to highlight the “V” bounce in this spread.

10-Year Treasuries Long-Term Chart.

10-Year Treasuries Long-Term Chart.

The naïve observer might think, oh, peachy keen, the badness is behind us. Not at all. The badness follows. And it isn’t here yet. But it will be. I’ve circled with green where we are now, and prior instances where we were roughly in the same place following the bounce. I have also put the years of those prior mean greenies, and every single year was an economic and market cataclysm.

A Closer Look.

A Closer Look.

Related Articles

ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Rates Spark April Bounce By ING Economic and Financial Analysis - Apr 09, 2021

We look through potential reasons for the April bounce in fixed income. A stubborn Fed and gloomy Eurozone outlook provide the best, if unsatisfactory, explanations. Upcoming US...

Buying Resumes In U.S. Treasuries...But For How Long? By Candy Matheson - Apr 09, 2021

Over the past several days, buying interest has resumed in US 10-year T-Notes, after it fell below its long-term uptrend channel median, as shown on the following monthly...

Boris Schlossberg

What If Bonds Are A Screaming Buy? By Boris Schlossberg - Apr 06, 2021

'Inflationista' arguments are well known But what if price pressures are a function of supply chain? Wage increases and credit growth have been weak Treasury auctions will be...

Add a Comment

We encourage you to use comments to engage with users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:

Enrich the conversation
Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically.
Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases.
NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and links within a comment will be removed
Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user.
Don’t Monopolize the Conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also believe strongly in giving everyone a chance to air their thoughts. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

I have read Investing.com's comments guidelines and agree to the terms described.

Write your thoughts here

Are you sure you want to delete this chart?

Post also to:

Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?

1000

Comment Guidelines

Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.

Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.

Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.

Comments (8)

Matt Cavagrotti Mar 04, 2021 3:18AM ET

Follow this post

Unfollow this post

Saved. See Saved Items.

This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items

Tim, even when you're wrong I like you.

0 0

Doitch Caso Mar 04, 2021 1:49AM ET

Follow this post

Unfollow this post

Saved. See Saved Items.

This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items

Very insightful indeed, as always Tim!

0 0

CrackHead Bob Mar 03, 2021 7:34PM ET

Follow this post

Unfollow this post

Saved. See Saved Items.

This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items

your call on PTON about 2 weeks ago was spot on I loaded up on the PUTS and still have about 50% of the trade on. Thanks Tim 👍

4 0

Evan Ault Mar 03, 2021 5:50PM ET

Follow this post

Unfollow this post

Saved. See Saved Items.

This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items

interesting what was the date of that last dip into negative territory?

2 0

Shane Gg Mar 03, 2021 4:57PM ET

Follow this post

Unfollow this post

Saved. See Saved Items.

This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items

Very interesting. I've been trying to get prepared for what I know is coming.

0 0

JoshModern Mar 03, 2021 4:27PM ET

Follow this post

Unfollow this post

Saved. See Saved Items.

This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items

I'm ready

0 0

Jon Banjovi Mar 03, 2021 4:09PM ET

Follow this post

Unfollow this post

Saved. See Saved Items.

This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items

It's a roller coaster ride

0 0

ECL SALES Mar 03, 2021 3:56PM ET

Follow this post

Unfollow this post

Saved. See Saved Items.

This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items

Superb!

0 0

<div id="comment">
				<div class="comment js-comment" data-comment-id="{commentID}" id="comment-{commentID}" data-user-id="202918290">
    <div class="mainComment js-content">
       <div class="commentInnerWrapper">
        <a href="{userLink}" class="js-user-link"><img src="{userImage}" width="33" height="33" alt="{usernameAlt}" class="img" onerror="this.src='https://i-invdn-com.akamaized.net/defaultUserMaleTmp.png';"></a><div class="commentBody">
                					<span class="commentUsername">
                    	<a href="{userLink}" class="js-user-link js-user-name">{username}</a>
					</span>
                                <span class="js-date" comment-date="{dateFormat}" comment-date-formatted="{dateFormatted}" title="{dateTitle}">Just Now</span>
                <div class="commentDropDown js-commentDropDownWrapper " data-user-id="202918290" data-cid="{commentID}">
	<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="threeDotsIconSmall js-thinDropdownArrow"></a>
	<div class="tooltipPopup commentActionsPop noHeader js-commentDropDownOptions displayNone">
		<div class="addRow js-option share">
			<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="js-commentSharePopup" data-cid="{commentID}" data-curl="{commentLink}"><span class="smallShareIcon middle"></span>Share</a>
		</div>

<div class="js-option addRow follow">
            <div class="js-follow-post-button">
                <span class="alertfollowIcon middle"></span>Follow this post            </div>
            <div class="js-unfollow-post-button displayNoneImp">
                <span class="alertUnfollowIcon middle"></span>Unfollow this post            </div>
        </div>

<div class="addRow js-option save">
		<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="js-save-item-btn" data-item-type="comments" data-item-id="{commentID}">
			<i class="saveItemBigIcon middle"></i>
			Save		</a>
	</div>
	<div class="addRow saveItemsConfirmation noHover displayNone js-saveItemResult">
		
<div class="content js-saveItemSuccess displayNone">
	<span class="mediumGreenSuccessIcon"></span><span>Saved. See <a href="/members-admin/saved-items" target="_blank">Saved Items</a>.</span>
	<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="bugCloseIcon js-close"></a>
</div>
<div class="content js-saveItemAlreadySaved saveItemAlreadySaved displayNoneImp">
	<span>This comment has already been saved in your <a href="/members-admin/saved-items" target="_blank">Saved Items</a></span>
	<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="bugCloseIcon js-close"></a>
</div>
	</div>

<div class="addRow js-option blockUser js-block-option" data-comment-id="{commentID}"  data-user-id="202918290">
			<a href="javascript:void(0);">
				<span class="blockIcon middle"></span>Block User			</a>
		</div>
				<div class="addRow shareButtons js-sharePopup displayNone">
			<div class="js-shareComment"><span class="js-shareCommentSpan"></span></div>
		</div>
	</div>
</div>
                 <div class="commentAuthor js-comment-by-author"><span class="commentAuthorIcon"></span>Author's response</div>             </div>
		<div id="commentText-{commentID}" class="js-text-wrapper commentText withImage">
							<div id="commentBigChart{commentID}" class="commentBigChart js-comment-chart" onclick="openViewChartPopup('{commentID}')">
					<img src="https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/comments_images/{commentImage}" alt="{commentAlt}">
					<i class="newMagnifyChartIcon"></i>
				</div>
						<span class="js-text">{commentContent}</span>
			<div class="clear"></div>
							<div class="commentButtons js-not-master-user">
					<a href="javascript:void(0)" class="reply js-reply-btn" data-real-parent-id="{commentID}" data-to-user-name="{username}" data-to-user-id="202918290">Reply</a>
					<div class="inlineblock likeDislikeBox js-like-dislike-box" data-item-id="{commentID}">
	<input class="js-like-checkbox" type="checkbox" name="option" value="Yes" id="like_{commentID}">
	<label for="like_{commentID}" class="like" title="I agree"></label>
	<span class="numOfLikes js-like-count lighterGrayFont">0</span>
	<input class="js-dislike-checkbox" type="checkbox" name="option" value="No" id="dislike_{commentID}">
	<label for="dislike_{commentID}" class="dislike" title="I disagree"></label>
	<span class="numOfDislikes js-dislike-count lighterGrayFont">0</span>
</div>

<div class="reportComment js-flag float_lang_base_2">
						<a href="javascript:void(0);" id="commentFlag_{commentID}">
							<span class="reportCommentIcon middle"></span><span class="inlineblock middle">Report</span>
						</a>
					</div>
				</div>
					</div>
	   </div>
	</div>
	</div>			</div>
			<div id="reply">
				
    <div class="commentReply js-comment js-comment-reply" data-comment-id="{commentID}" id="comment-{commentID}" data-user-id="">
		<div class="commentInnerWrapper"><a href="{userLink}" class="js-user-link"><img src="{userImage}" width="33" height="33" alt="{usernameAlt}" class="img" onerror="this.src='https://i-invdn-com.akamaized.net/defaultUserMaleTmp.png';"></a><div class="commentBody js-content">
            				<span class="commentUsername">
					<a href="{userLink}" class="commentUsername js-user-link js-user-name" onMouseOver="">{username}</a>
				</span>
                        <span class="js-date" comment-date="{dateFormat}" comment-date-formatted="{dateFormatted}" title="{dateTitle}">Just Now</span>
			 <div class="commentAuthor js-comment-by-author"><span class="commentAuthorIcon"></span>Author's response</div> 			<div class="commentDropDown js-commentDropDownWrapper " data-user-id="" data-cid="{commentID}">
	<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="threeDotsIconSmall js-thinDropdownArrow"></a>
	<div class="tooltipPopup commentActionsPop noHeader js-commentDropDownOptions displayNone">
		<div class="addRow js-option share">
			<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="js-commentSharePopup" data-cid="{commentID}" data-curl="{commentLink}"><span class="smallShareIcon middle"></span>Share</a>
		</div>

<div class="js-option addRow follow">
            <div class="js-follow-post-button">
                <span class="alertfollowIcon middle"></span>Follow this post            </div>
            <div class="js-unfollow-post-button displayNoneImp">
                <span class="alertUnfollowIcon middle"></span>Unfollow this post            </div>
        </div>

<div class="addRow js-option save">
		<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="js-save-item-btn" data-item-type="comments" data-item-id="{commentID}">
			<i class="saveItemBigIcon middle"></i>
			Save		</a>
	</div>
	<div class="addRow saveItemsConfirmation noHover displayNone js-saveItemResult">
		
<div class="content js-saveItemSuccess displayNone">
	<span class="mediumGreenSuccessIcon"></span><span>Saved. See <a href="/members-admin/saved-items" target="_blank">Saved Items</a>.</span>
	<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="bugCloseIcon js-close"></a>
</div>
<div class="content js-saveItemAlreadySaved saveItemAlreadySaved displayNoneImp">
	<span>This comment has already been saved in your <a href="/members-admin/saved-items" target="_blank">Saved Items</a></span>
	<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="bugCloseIcon js-close"></a>
</div>
	</div>

<div class="addRow shareButtons js-sharePopup displayNone">
			<div class="js-shareComment"><span class="js-shareCommentSpan"></span></div>
		</div>
	</div>
</div>

</div>
		<div id="commentText-{commentID}" class="js-text-wrapper commentText withImage">
							<div id="commentBigChart{commentID}" class="replyBigChart displayNone js-comment-chart">
					<img src="https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/comments_images/{commentImage}" alt="{commentAlt}">
					<i class="newMagnifyChartIcon"></i>
				</div>
				<span id="commentSmallChart{commentID}" class="commentSmallChart pointer js-comment-chart" onclick="openViewChartPopup('{commentID}')">
                    <img src="https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/comments_images/{commentImageSmall}" width="116" height="52" alt="{commentAlt}">
                    <span class="chartMagnifyOverlay displayNone"></span>
                    <span class="searchGlassIcon chartMagnify displayNone"></span>
                </span>
						<span class="js-text">{commentContent}</span>
			<div class="clear"></div>
							<div class="commentButtons js-not-master-user">
					<a href="javascript:void(0)" class="reply js-reply-btn" data-real-parent-id="{commentID}" data-to-user-name="{username}" data-to-user-id="">Reply</a>
					<div class="inlineblock likeDislikeBox js-like-dislike-box" data-item-id="{commentID}">
	<input class="js-like-checkbox" type="checkbox" name="option" value="Yes" id="like_{commentID}">
	<label for="like_{commentID}" class="like" title="I agree"></label>
	<span class="numOfLikes js-like-count lighterGrayFont">0</span>
	<input class="js-dislike-checkbox" type="checkbox" name="option" value="No" id="dislike_{commentID}">
	<label for="dislike_{commentID}" class="dislike" title="I disagree"></label>
	<span class="numOfDislikes js-dislike-count lighterGrayFont">0</span>
</div>

<div class="reportComment js-flag float_lang_base_2">
						<a href="javascript:void(0);" id="commentFlag_{commentID}">
							<span class="reportCommentIcon middle"></span><span class="inlineblock middle">Report</span>
						</a>
					</div>
				</div>
					</div>
		</div>
    </div>
			</div>
			<div id="show-more-comments">
				<a class="showMoreComments block">
					<span class="arial_12 showArrowafter">Show more comments (<span class="js-amount"></span>)</span>
				</a>
			</div>
			<div id="show-more-replies">
				<a class="showMoreReplies block">
					<span class="arial_12 showArrowafter">Show more replies (<span class="js-amount"></span>)</span>
				</a>
			</div>

Are you sure you want to delete this chart?

Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?

1000

Comment Guidelines

Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.

Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.

I feel that this comment is:

Spam

Offensive

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

More Categories

1D1W1M6M1Y5YMax

	US 30 Futures	33,629.5	-12.5	-0.04%
	US 500 Futures	4,113.38	-0.50	-0.01%
	Dow Jones	33,800.60	+297.03	+0.89%
	S&P 500	4,128.80	+31.63	+0.77%
	Nasdaq	13,900.19	+70.88	+0.51%
	S&P 500 VIX	16.69	-0.26	-1.53%
	Dollar Index	92.180	+0.111	+0.12%

	Crude Oil WTI	59.34	-0.26	-0.44%
	Brent Oil	63.01	-0.19	-0.30%
	Natural Gas	2.521	-0.001	-0.04%
	Gold	1,744.50	-0.10	-0.01%
	Silver	25.315	-0.270	-1.06%
	Copper	4.0470	-0.0475	-1.16%
	US Soybeans	1,402.88	-12.12	-0.86%

	SPDR S&P 500	411.49	+2.97	+0.73%
	iShares Russell 2000	222.59	+0.03	+0.01%
	Invesco QQQ Trust	337.11	+2.03	+0.61%
	Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Bull 2X Shares	91.20	-0.62	-0.68%
	iShares Silver	23.41	-0.21	-0.89%
	ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures	4.85	-0.01	-0.21%
	ProShares UltraPro QQQ	107.27	+1.91	+1.81%

	Apple	133.00	+2.63	+2.02%
	Alphabet A	2,270.67	+20.24	+0.90%
	Tesla	677.02	-6.78	-0.99%
	Amazon.com	3,372.20	+72.90	+2.21%
	Netflix	555.31	+0.73	+0.13%
	Facebook	312.46	-0.56	-0.18%
	Bank of America	39.99	+0.29	+0.73%

Most Popular Articles

Ripple (XRP) Will Soon Partner With Wanchain By CoinQuora - Apr 11, 2021 111

Economic Calendar - Top 5 Things to Watch This Week By Investing.com - Apr 11, 2021 144

Fed's Powell: U.S. economy at an 'inflection point' - CBS '60 Minutes' By Reuters - Apr 11, 2021 118

Energy & Precious Metals - Weekly Review and Calendar Ahead By Investing.com - Apr 11, 2021 19

Peter Brandt Says XRP Could Hit New All-Time High By CoinQuora - Apr 11, 2021 11

3 Stocks To Watch In The Coming Week: JPMorgan Chase, Delta Air,... By Haris Anwar/Investing.com - Apr 11, 2021 8

Week Ahead: Stocks Hit Record Highs Amid Reflation Reversal; Q1... By Pinchas Cohen/Investing.com - Apr 11, 2021 10

An ETF That Invests In Companies With Wide Moats, Like Warren Buffet By Tezcan Gecgil/Investing.com - Apr 09, 2021 10

Commodities: Meats Rally As The 2021 Grilling Season Approaches By Andy Hecht - Apr 09, 2021 4

Emerging Markets Face Declines, As Europe Soars By Michael Kramer - Apr 09, 2021 14

Central Banks Rates

	Central Banks		Interest Rates	Next Meeting
		FED	0.00%-0.25%	Apr 28, 2021
		ECB	0.00%	Apr 22, 2021
		BOE	0.10%	May 06, 2021
		SNB	-0.75%	Jun 17, 2021
		RBA	0.10%	May 04, 2021
		BOC	0.25%	Apr 21, 2021
		RBNZ	0.25%	Apr 14, 2021
		BOJ	-0.10%	Apr 27, 2021
		CBR	4.50%	Apr 23, 2021
		RBI	4.00%	Jun 04, 2021
		PBOC	3.85%
		BCB	2.75%	May 05, 2021