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I find this fascinating: examine the symbol FR:T10Y2Y, the 10-year rate minus the 2-year rate. This concoction has done a crackerjack job of predicting every single recession, and the most recent is no exception. I have tinted each instance when this data point went negative, and then reversed to highlight the “V” bounce in this spread.
The naïve observer might think, oh, peachy keen, the badness is behind us. Not at all. The badness follows. And it isn’t here yet. But it will be. I’ve circled with green where we are now, and prior instances where we were roughly in the same place following the bounce. I have also put the years of those prior mean greenies, and every single year was an economic and market cataclysm.
We look through potential reasons for the April bounce in fixed income. A stubborn Fed and gloomy Eurozone outlook provide the best, if unsatisfactory, explanations. Upcoming US...
Over the past several days, buying interest has resumed in US 10-year T-Notes, after it fell below its long-term uptrend channel median, as shown on the following monthly...
'Inflationista' arguments are well known But what if price pressures are a function of supply chain? Wage increases and credit growth have been weak Treasury auctions will be...
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