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SVB reverberations continue. In the US, the FRA/OIS spread is at a tipping point and needs to calm to help generate wider calm. US financial conditions have tightened considerably as a consequence of...
Chair Powell has sent a clear message: the Fed is back in the driving seat. At a very minimum, the Fed has given itself the option to deliver a 50bp hike from the March meeting. It's now discounted...
Usually with US auctions this strong, we're in the midst of a bond market rally with considerable room for more. But the downside moves have been tame in fact, despite the recession talk to boot. We...
The week ahead is chock full of data, including Japan, the UK, and Australia's CPI. The UK and Australia report on the labor market. The US, UK, and Canada also report retail sales. The early Fed...
Celebrating the drop in German inflation may be premature and headwinds to bond performance, especially for those denominated in euros, remain. The Fed minutes might not fulfill all of the...
Inverted yield hikes in U.S. and Europe are forecasting recession Investor focus in Fed’s meeting is on inflation and rate forecasts Policymakers at the ECB and the Bank of England have mixed...
Fed is the only game in town Employment data especially significant at this time Bad economic data should cause a rally While all four major U.S. indices advanced last week, excepting mega caps, they...
We see a case for the bond rally to extend in the near term but we expect the move to run our of steam ahead of the next weeks’ inflation and employment dataDrift lower in yields to continue for...
4.3% in the US and a safe yield of 2.5% for Germany 10-Year government bonds - interest rate expectations continue to soar because there are still no signs of easing on the inflation front. For...
US data and policy should remind markets of the difficulty in timing the Fed’s pivot. Conditions for market volatility should remain in place until year-end. The Bank of England is keeping gilt...
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