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U.S. funding deal keep stocks bulls on the charge

Stock MarketsJan 23, 2018 08:37AM ET
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© Reuters. A man walks past a display of the Nikkei average and other market indices outside a brokerage in Tokyo

By Marc Jones

LONDON (Reuters) - World stocks clocked up their 13th record high of the year on Tuesday, as relief at a temporary U.S. government funding deal boosted already sky-high confidence about global growth and corporate earnings.

Wall Street futures were pointing to a steady start (N) but records in Asia and 0.3-0.5 percent gains on Europe's biggest bourses <0#.INDEXE> after upbeat data from German and Britain, ensured the new year bull run rumbled on. (MIWD00000PUS) (EU)

The International Monetary Fund revised up its global growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 to 3.9 percent, which would be the highest since 2011. There was also a lift from Japan as its central bank said it would keep stimulus flowing.

"We should not confuse a mature bull market with a decrepit one," Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) said in its 2018 outlook to clients.

"For the first time in a decade, the major economies of the world are all expanding at the same time, providing a foundation for global profits that fundamentally support risk assets."

Global borrowing costs also eased as the Bank of Japan's reassurances in Asia added to the relief that U.S. lawmakers had struck a short-term deal on Monday to fund the government through to Feb. 8.

It resolved what had been a three-day shutdown in Washington and pushed yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries - one of the biggest drivers of world borrowing costs - down for the first time in five days to 2.62 percent.

European bonds followed suit with Spain's 10-year bond yield dropping to a seven-month low at 1.36 percent to cut its premium to ultra-safe German debt down to the leanest since March 2015. Yields move inversely to prices. [GVD/EUR]

Major currencies stuck to the narrative too, for the most part. The dollar edged up against the euro to $1.2240 though it failed to cling on to earlier gains against the Japanese yen and sagged back to 110.50 yen. .

Some investors are sensing that a recent fall in the dollar to a three-year low may be coming to a close amid brewing concerns over the U.S. stance on global trade policy.

U.S. President Donald Trump slapped steep import tariffs on washing machines and solar panels on Monday, putting a cloud over global trade at a time when its revival has fueled hopes for a stronger world economy.

Trump is slated to give the closing address at this year's Davos summit of political and business leaders on Friday and some analysts expect him to strike a protectionist stance, which may increase pressure on emerging market currencies.

"If Trump decides to strike a strong anti-trade stance, it will spark a selloff in global trade-oriented currencies such as the Korean won and the Chinese yuan and eventually weigh on the U.S. dollar as well," said Viraj Patel, an FX strategist at ING in London.

STERLING EFFORT

The other eye-catching currency market move came from Britain's pound as it topped $1.40 for the first time since voters there chose back in 2016 to leave the European Union. [GBP/]

It is benefiting from both upbeat UK domestic data and hopes of a favorable post-Brexit deal with the EU. On a year-to-date basis it up 3.5 percent, making it is the best performing major currency, beating even the high-flying euro .

Data on Friday showed too that currency traders on the Chicago futures exchanges have increased their net long sterling positions - or bets that it will rise - to the highest level in 3-1/2 years.

"Sterling is benefiting from the broad dollar weakness story and the recent data has been mildly supportive," said Thomas Flury, head of FX strategies, UBS Wealth Management, Chief Investment Office.

Despite the unease over U.S. tariffs, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (MIAPJ0000PUS) had risen 0.9 percent overnight.

Australian stocks (AXJO) climbed 0.75 percent and South Korea's KOSPI (KS11) added 1.4 percent. Hong Kong's Hang Sang (HSI) meanwhile scaled a record high, Singapore (STI) reached a 10-year top and Japan's Nikkei (N225) rose to a 26-year peak.

Japan's central bank meeting had maintained both its interest rate target at minus 0.1 percent and a pledge to keep 10-year government bond yields around zero percent, which showed it remains firmly in stimulus mode.

At the same time it also said "inflation expectations have moved sideways recently," offering a slightly more upbeat view than three months ago when it said they looked weak.

The BOJ "still remains a step behind other central banks looking to normalize their policies," said Shusuke Yamada, chief Japan FX strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (NYSE:BAC).

Oil prices rose on Tuesday, lifted by the prospect of healthy economic growth as well as supply restraint by a group of exporters around OPEC and Russia. [O/R]

U.S. crude oil futures (CLc1) rose 0.6 percent to $63.94 per barrel and Brent gained 0.56 percent to $69.42 per barrel (LCOc1). Spot gold tacked on 0.2 percent to $1,336.70 per ounce.

In the virtual currency world, bitcoin was down 5.5 percent on the Bitstamp exchange (BTC=BTSP) at $10,220.13 following news that South Korea will ban the use of anonymous bank accounts in cryptocurrency trading from Jan. 30.

While it was a widely telegraphed move designed to stop virtual coins from being used for money laundering and other crimes, the step also underscored authorities' intent to close down avenues for spurious speculation.

U.S. funding deal keep stocks bulls on the charge
 

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