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Comstock Resources Inc (CRK)

NYSE
Currency in USD
Disclaimer
9.375
+0.135(+1.46%)
Real-time Data

CRK Comments

If I was Jerry Jones, I would want to see the float reduced another 25M to 50M shares and volume drop to an average of around 2M shares/d. Then announce a potential merger requiring all shares to be tendered. Then sit back and watch shorts try to find shares while stock price goes up like a rocket. One way or the other, shorts sre going to get hammered. Rrplay the last 2 quarterly conference calks and you will hear Jay Allison tell everyone they are de-risking Western Haynesville to facilitate a merger. Shorts are in big trouble.
If you ACCIDENTLY or KNOWINGLY lent out your shares and the broker goes broke, you lose 100% of your investment because it is not SIPC insured. Otherwise, you are covered up to $500k in case of losses. How to turn off share lending? Take 5 minutes to log into your broker account and MAKE SURE that share lending is turned off.
NO SIPC INSURANCE on Lent out shares during a Bank Run. It is YOUR Responsibility to make sure it is turned off. If you ACCIDENTLY or KNOWINGLY lent out your shares and the broker goes broke, you lose 100% of your investment because it is not SIPC insured. Otherwise, you are covered up to $500k in case of losses.
Would not be surprised if another 25-30 million dhares get “Certificated”. I believe JJ has declared war on the shorts.
FINRA data shows shorts are increasing on every rally.
Float Update: CRK had 132.53 million shares float as of February 15, 2024. CRK has only 78.86 million shares float now per FINVIZ. That’s a drop of 59.66 million shares in 1 1/2 months. Looks like some large shareholders might be calling in share certificates to force shorts out of this stock. Sent from my iPhone
So they pulled 45.51 million shares out of the float this month. Looks like CRK IS GOING TO SQUEEZE THE SHORTS out of their positions at higher prices.
2.412 millions shares traded today with 22.2 million shares short. It’ll take at least 20 days to liquidate those shorts with others competing for those same shares
Float dropped from 132.53 million shares to 87.12 million shared from February 15 to March 15. 22.2 million shares short. Short ratio would be 25.5%
When JJ made cash commitments to Comstock Resources in 2018 and 2019, stock price increased 2.74X and 2.57X in 3 and 5 months. Stock price was $8.03 when he committed another $100M. A 2.57X increase would take the stock price to $20.64. I’d take that…
27.68% short/float, and JJ just paid CASH for 12.5 million shares. Looks like perfect setup for short squeeze.
Jerry Jones, has agreed to make an additional $100,450,000 equity investment in Comstock Resources through two entities he controls. The Jones entities will acquire 12,500,000 shares of common stock in the private placement at a price of $8.036 per share. His ownership is mow 67%, up from 65%. Sounds like he believes better times are coming.
Over the past year, electric utilities have nearly doubled their forecasts of how much additional power they’ll need by 2028 as they confront an unexpected explosion in the number of data centers, an abrupt resurgence in manufacturing driven by new federal laws, and millions of electric vehicles being plugged in. Many power companies were already struggling to keep the lights on, especially during extreme weather, and say the strain on grids will only increase. Peak demand in the summer is projected to grow by 38,000 megawatts nationwide in the next five years, according to an analysis by the consulting firm Grid Strategies, which is like adding another California to the grid.
That was an excrpt from a NY Times article.
By June, 2025, barring government interference, LNG feed gas demand should be 20 bcf/d. 22 bcf/d by December, 2025. Total Supply is going to have to expand to 116 bcf/d from current 105.5 bcf/d!
Eventually, producers MUST start doing simple math to determine production levels. For instance: Revenue for a 22 million cu ft/d well at $2.00 HH price would be $44,000/d. 20 million cu ft/d at $2.50 would be $50,000/day for same well. 18 million cu ft/d at $3.00 would be $54,000/day for same well. 16 million cu ft/d would be $56,000/d for same well. So, as a mineral owner, I obviously prefer choking back gas production to raise revenues and extend well life. Maybe the producers are getting the message!
25% rally over the last 13 days. Another 25% really would put stock price at close to $11.
Sould not be surprised is an LNG exporter makes a run at CRK now that Western Haynesville is de-risking.
Tell me if you think this is flawed: Mountain Valley and Matterhorn pipelines will add 5 bcf/d to supply, but if producers reduce base production by 2 bcf/d, thats a net gain of 3 bcf this year. Plaquemines I and II will gradually add 3.6 bcf/d demand over 6-8 months beginning with 600 mmcf/d in May/June , and adding 600 bcf/d per month over next 6 - 8 months until they reach capacity . That’s NET BULLISH for 2024. 2025 will have another 5 bcf/d LNG feedgas demand added when Golden Pass and Corpus Christi go online. That should be Very bullish for 2025! Gas producers’ stocks are probably going to start anticipating this.
MVP will come online slowly at around .75 bcf/d. Could take a year to reach capacity…. Maybe longer.
Only down 16.8% on my CRK now. Not being greedy, but it would not make me unhappy to see a wild short squeeze in the stock. Short % of float is 25.%.
These 3 projects will increase feedgas demand by 8+ bcf/d.
The Plaquemines, Golden Pass, and Corpus Christi projects may not be at full capacity until 2025, but the LNG export market should be humming by mid-2025.
LNG feedgas demand should pick back up if and when Freeport gets back to 100% and IF Novatek’s Ust-Luga fuel terminal is truly out of commission. Novatek’s Ust-Luga fuel terminal is a 4 bcf/d operation and it was attacked by a drone last month. The problem is we have no reliable info. But it could save the bulls if it truly IS out of operation.
This is the only gas stock, imo, that’s worth buying at this time. Long term fundies are OK and short interest is very high. Bullish combination.
If production increases 500 mm cf/month, end of 2024 production wouid be around 109.5 bcf/d. That’s the bad news. The good news is net Canadian imports will probably drop to 5 bcf/d or lower, so total supply at end of 2024 might not be over 114.5 bcf/d. Storage would still be over 3.2 TCF at end of 2024, but that’s not a bad way to begin 2025. Surviving now through Oct, 2024 may be tricky though. Its NOT going to be a good year for bulls, but experienced scalpers will fo well
CORRECTION: Production increased by 1.374 bcf/d not TCF.
Yesterday’s DPR shows Haynesville production increased by 239 million cu ft/d, Permian gas production increased by 357 million cu ft/d, and Appalachia gas production increased by 842 million cu ft/d in December. Total production in 7 regions increased 1.374 TCF/d in December. If CRK hedged 29% of it’s 2024 production at $3.55, which they claim to have done, theyvwill survive even if gas drops to $1.00, which it may.
CRK should definitely suspend dividends and choke back production by 50%. Producers who cut production and maintain hedges will survive 2024. Those who don’t WON’T.
Producers who sell unhedged gas at $1.60 will go busted. Choke ‘em back or go bust guys.
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