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Cumberland Advisors Cumberland Advisors

Cumberland Advisors's Opinion & Analysis.
Featured here: a complete archive of all posts and research produced by Cumberland Advisors, including current material.
The January 2019 Fed Minutes By Bob Eisenbeis - Feb 22, 2019

Attention has turned to what extra gems of information might be contained in the release of the FOMC’s January 2019 minutes about the future path of policy. Comments have focused on the...

Global Gold: The Last 20 Years By David Kotok - Feb 04, 2019

What do 72 countries – including developed nations such as Canada, Australia, Japan and Sweden; emerging giants such as Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Nigeria, India, Iran and Russia; and small...

European Growth Concerns Deepen By Bill Witherell - Jan 28, 2019

The latest indicators reveal that the economic slowdown in Europe persists. President Draghi of the European Central Bank (ECB) has underlined the continued weakness, expectations for softer near-term...

Shutdown And Markets By David Kotok - Jan 22, 2019

The stock market is ignoring the shutdown. The bond market is, too. So, too, are commodities, currencies, precious metals, fine art and other collectibles, sovereign debt, and many other asset...

China’s Slowdown And Financial Markets By Bill Witherell - Jan 11, 2019

The Shanghai Stock Exchange was the worst-performing major stock market in 2018, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite index falling 25% over the course of the year. Concerns about a slowing economy...

Total Return Taxable Fixed Income: 4Q 2018 Review By Cumberland Advisors - Jan 02, 2019

After a poor start to the quarter, the Treasury market rebounded nicely over the month of December, providing positive performance across the Treasury curve as the equity market suffered from negative...

Q4 Munis Turn It Around By John Mousseau - Dec 28, 2018

Muni yields rose in the first six weeks of this quarter – mostly in sympathy with US Treasuries (NYSE:UST). We saw the 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds rise 20 and 25 basis points...

Market Backlash: What To Expect By Bob Eisenbeis - Dec 21, 2018 3

The Treasury market had priced in a 25-basis-point increase in the FOMC’s target range for federal funds prior to the FOMC’s December 18–19 meeting. The Committee was faced with...

November’s Bond-Market Bounce By John Mousseau - Dec 04, 2018

The last three weeks of November saw a bounce in the bond market, with intermediate and longer bond yields falling after spending most of 2018 rising. If we look at the US Treasury market (chart 1),...

Midterm Elections – A Quick Muni Note By John Mousseau - Nov 07, 2018

Here’s our first take after the midterm elections. The polls actually got it right, with the Democrats taking the House of Representatives and the Republicans enjoying a slight pickup in the...

FOMC Closes Out Q3 2018 By Bob Eisenbeis - Sep 28, 2018

As Treasury markets had correctly predicted, the FOMC raised its target range for federal funds by 25 basis points to 2.0%–2.25% at its meeting on Wednesday. Perhaps more importantly, it also...

A Tale Of Two Ratios: Shorter And Longer By John Mousseau - Sep 27, 2018

In a year when we have seen commentators talking about the relative flatness of yield curves, we have a conundrum when we look at the US Treasury yield curve and the US muni yield curve (shown here as...

Trump Trade War And The Keystone Kops By David Kotok - Sep 26, 2018

In his Thoughts from the Frontline letter on Friday, John Mauldin wrapped his own strong remarks on Trump’s trade war with China around a tweet from the vastly experienced and hugely connected...

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