Get 40% Off
🤯 This Tech Portfolio is up 29% YTD! Join Now to Get April’s Top PicksGet The Picks – Just 99 USD

Shutdown And Markets

Published 01/22/2019, 08:25 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM

The stock market is ignoring the shutdown. The bond market is, too. So, too, are commodities, currencies, precious metals, fine art and other collectibles, sovereign debt, and many other asset classes. Those markets are moving for other reasons and not Federal shutdown.

Why?

Markets believe the shutdown is temporary. Market agents look at the childish behavior of our political leaders, roll their eyes in disdain, and move on. Markets are focused on the US-China trade war’s winding down, on earnings, and on economic issues.

If the shutdown ends quickly, markets will have ignored it. Pelosi yanks the auditorium and Trump yanks the airplane and market agents wish these folks would do better than playground politics, but market agents move right past the theater.

If the shutdown persists, all this changes as GDP growth slows, business decisions are deferred, credit problems appear, and 800,000 households run into daily living problems because their salaries are unpaid.

Right now we are still fully invested in our US ETF strategy. We expect the trade war with China to continue to de-escalate (or wind down) on the basis of the Buenos Aires truce.

Regarding the shutdown and the behavior of our politicians, we recall Sir Winston Churchill’s take on the messiness of the democratic process. In 1947, in the House of Commons, he said, “Many forms of government have been tried and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time…” Pelosi and Trump are living testament to Churchill’s sagacity.

by Cumberland Advisors

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.