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Cumberland Advisors Cumberland Advisors

Cumberland Advisors's Opinion & Analysis.
Featured here: a complete archive of all posts and research produced by Cumberland Advisors, including current material.
The Day After In Bondland By John Mousseau - Nov 10, 2016

“Destiny is not a matter of chance; it is a matter of choice. It is not a thing to be waited for; it is a thing to be achieved” – William Jennings Bryan, 1899 (Democratic candidate...

Markets, Fed And The Election By David Kotok - Nov 07, 2016

I was honored to participate this past week in discussions on the Fed, markets, and politics. The rationale for our views at Cumberland is argued here. An Overview • The market now anticipates a...

Close Of The Baseball Season Ruminations By John Mousseau - Nov 06, 2016

The Chicago Cubs erased 108 years of excruciating losses with an exciting 8-7 win over the Cleveland Indians in Game 7 of the 2016 World Series on Wednesday night. Hats off to the Cubs, who erased a...

Interest Rates And William Safire By David Kotok - Nov 01, 2016

The money market fund rules change came and went (Rule 2a7 effective on October 14). We now have government funds yielding short-maturity T-bill rates and prime funds yielding more from their holdings...

Debt, GDP, Interest-Rate Shock By David Kotok - Oct 25, 2016

Business Insider has compiled a colorful depiction of the largest debtor countries in the world. Does debt to GDP mean anything? The answer is maybe. And perhaps the second part of that answer is that...

The Specter Of A Hard Brexit By Bill Witherell - Oct 12, 2016

The decline in the British pound sterling that began in June when the UK voted to leave the European Union (EU) accelerated last week, culminating in a “flash crash” on Friday October 7...

How To Trade The U.S. Presidential Election By Cumberland Advisors - Oct 05, 2016

Markets dislike uncertainty. However, October is historically a volatile month, with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) averaging 22.26 in the past decade. In addition, the US presidential election is...

Tactical Trends: Third Quarter 2016 Review By Cumberland Advisors - Sep 27, 2016

Recognizing strength and weakness among primary asset classes is the core goal of our Tactical Trend strategy. For much of the year, domestic equity, fixed income, and cash have registered very close...

Muni Bonds: Third-Quarter 2016 Review By John Mousseau - Sep 27, 2016

A Market in Transition? The municipal bond market finally slowed down during 3Q2016, as shown in Tables 1 and 2. The muni market cheapened on both a nominal and a relative basis. Why? Some of this...

Fed Struggles With Neutral Interest Rate By Bob Eisenbeis - Sep 23, 2016 1

As we expected here at Cumberland Advisors, the FOMC chose not to raise rates at its September meeting but strongly suggested, based upon both rhetoric and its dot forecast chart, that it was clearly...

Market Volatility: A Contrarian Strategy By Cumberland Advisors - Sep 20, 2016

The US stock market entered a complacent phase after our post-Brexit entry. Although we benefited significantly from being contrarians and buying the dip immediately after the UK referendum, we were...

Tug Of War Continues Into Q3 By David Kotok - Sep 19, 2016

The analog to markets is the struggle over the last three years between corporate earnings fundamentals and interest rates for control of stock prices. Earnings have been at or near a peak since 2013...

Fuel For The Money Markets Fire By David Kotok - Sep 15, 2016

Liz McCormick (NYSE:MKC)'s reporting via Bloomberg gives readers an update on the coming rule changes for money markets. We recommend it to interested readers. Two additions may be helpful. First is...

Policy Divergence At Jackson Hole By Bill Witherell - Aug 31, 2016

At last week’s gathering of global central bankers in Jackson Hole, attention was focused – for good reasons – on the comments of the Federal Reserve’s Chair, Janet Yellen, and...

Jackson Hole: What Have We Learned? By Bob Eisenbeis - Aug 29, 2016

Chair Yellen’s much-awaited Jackson Hole speech has been touted in the media as suggesting that there will soon be a second rate hike to follow the FOMC’s December 2015 move. However, many...

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