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Cumberland Advisors Cumberland Advisors

Cumberland Advisors's Opinion & Analysis.
Featured here: a complete archive of all posts and research produced by Cumberland Advisors, including current material.
Dow 20,000 By David Kotok - Jan 27, 2017

"Dow 20k... But Don't Overpay,” says Adam Johnson, former Bloomberg anchor who is currently found at bullseyebrief.com. We agree. We are still maintaining a cash reserve in our US ETF core and...

President Trump: Bond Market, Week One By John Mousseau - Jan 25, 2017

The market euphoria brought on by President-elect Trump (rising equity markets and bond yields) has now moved on to the reality of President Trump. The spadework of working with Congress to move his...

2017: LIBOR, Market Risk And Trump By David Kotok - Jan 06, 2017

Let’s consider the widening spreads between the spot market price for LIBOR and FRA pricing. We think those widening spreads spell rising risk. Two acknowledgments are necessary before we wade...

Tactical Trend: Fourth Quarter 2016 Review By Cumberland Advisors - Dec 30, 2016

Recognizing strengths and weaknesses among primary asset classes is the core goal of our Tactical Trend strategy. The strategy seeks to identify relative strength and trend strength in an attempt to...

FOMC Policy In 2017 By David Kotok - Dec 22, 2016

As expected, the FOMC at its December meeting raised the target policy range for federal funds to 50–75 basis points. The Committee also released its latest summary of economic projections...

LIBOR’s Message By David Kotok - Dec 09, 2016

Early every morning at Cumberland an email is sent around to all folks in the firm who touch portfolios. LIBOR rates are part of the dataset. An estimated $150 trillion worldwide is US-dollar-based...

Europe: Mourning And Markets By David Kotok - Dec 06, 2016

“Unsustainable things continue until they stop.” That is how Herb Stein answered Richard Nixon when Nixon asked about economic timing. The financial and economic construction of the EU and...

Can Italy Be Saved? By Bill Witherell - Dec 05, 2016

On Sunday, Italian voters rejected by a wide margin a constitutional reform put forward by Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. The result plunges Italy into a likely period of extended uncertainty and...

Rising Stocks, Rising Volatility By Cumberland Advisors - Nov 29, 2016

The US stock market has gained over 3% this month thanks to the presidential election. The continuing all-time high records in the equity market have pressed the VIX Index down to a level close to...

Politics And Market Volatility By David Kotok - Nov 28, 2016

At the conclusion of our Thanksgiving Week missive we noted that "over half" of those arrested during five nights of post Trump victory demonstrations in Portland, Oregon, had not voted in the...

Trump, Lincoln, Churchill, Hegel, Gundlach By David Kotok - Nov 22, 2016

Speculation and diverse economic and market forecasts abound on the heels of the Trump win and Republican Senate and House victories. We won’t waste time repeating them here, save for one that...

Politics, Cycles And Mean Reversion By David Kotok - Nov 15, 2016

When the time comes and the evening darkness provides some cover, the infant turtles start their scramble up from the sand nest. The wiggling mass of 70–100 hatchlings causes the sand to...

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